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Total AdSense Payouts Continue Slow Decline
peaked at $1.34 billion in Q108, now down to $1.23 billion
elsewhen




msg:3894140
 10:28 pm on Apr 16, 2009 (gmt 0)

Q109 1.23 billion
Q408 1.29 billion
Q308 1.33 billion
Q208 1.32 billion
Q108 1.34 billion
Q407 1.31 billion
Q307 1.12 billion
Q207 1.06 billion
Q107 1.05 billion
Q406 0.92 billion
Q306 0.78 billion

the data from the most recent quarter is from their conference call that just completed. the press release is here:

[investor.google.com ]

 

silverbytes




msg:3894165
 11:12 pm on Apr 16, 2009 (gmt 0)

Does that means that Adsense is paying less money to adsense publishers though amount of publishers is surely growing right? So instead 1 cake for 10 guests now there is 3/4 of the cake and 12 guests.

Is that the bottomline of the large article?

purplecape




msg:3894216
 1:21 am on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

# of publishers may not be growing. They threw out the arbitragers some time ago, right? And may have tightened up standards for new publishers....

Scurramunga




msg:3894220
 1:45 am on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

So if these figures represent payouts; what are Adword for Content earnings doing? Up or Down?

coachm




msg:3894224
 1:53 am on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

It's difficult for most to understand this, so here's a REALLY important part.

Google's REVENUE (NOT PROFIT) from partner sites (that includes us) dropped 3% year to year and 3% this quarter to last. (that' interesting that it actually did not drop within 2008).

What that means is advertisers are paying less to advertise on our sites, or there are less advertisers, etc, while at the same time, advertising on GOOGLE sites brought increased 6% year to year...blah blah.

It also almost certainly means that CTR dropped badly on content partner sites, resulting in less revenue, but that's always been my contention.

There's more interesting stuff, but too much gets overwhelming

So, there's no doubt that advertiser behavior accounts for drops, BUT so does visitor behavior.

Bottom line. Less money in the bucket from which google pays us, while more money in the bucket they have for their sites. No surprise.

Couple that with differential distribution of money from our bucket, re: sectors, niches, and you can get huge individual website owner crashouts as a result.

coachm




msg:3894226
 1:58 am on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

Just wanted to say, after reading the rest of the document, albeit quickly, that this is ONE FINE, excellently run business. The numbers are amazing in a number of ways. No wonder their stock went up today!

guru5571




msg:3894256
 2:28 am on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

It may also be a combination of more publishers diversifying away from Adsense. This has been a goal for lots of established publishers for some time. Maybe the lull in advertising in general is allowing diversification away from Google to finally show up in the numbers. Personally I've been waiting years for this. This is the only kind of pressure that will force Google to increase publisher payouts in order to stem further diversification.

signor_john




msg:3894360
 7:14 am on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

This is the only kind of pressure that will force Google to increase publisher payouts in order to stem further diversification.

The percentage of revenue paid to publishers is already high. (Read the earnings report.) What's more, the idea of "diversifying away from AdSense" is nothing new: after all, Web publishing existed long before AdSense was introduced in 2003, and most medium to large media sites use AdSense as only one source of revenue.

guru5571




msg:3894426
 9:36 am on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

the idea of "diversifying away from AdSense" is nothing new
That's what I said, when I mentioned this being a goal for lots of established publishers for some time.

Read between the lines. All publishers are lumped together in those numbers. The big players get much more favorable rates like AOL taking 90%. While small publishers get around 65%. This all came out a few years ago. Was mentioned here and elsewhere. People in this forum pretty much ignored it.

oddsod




msg:3894504
 12:09 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

The percentage of revenue paid to publishers is already high.

But it looks to me like it's dropping. So while individual publishers may see a sharp drop and others see a sharp rise isn't it reasonable to conclude that the net result is that publishers as a group are getting a smaller share of the overall pie?

purplecape




msg:3894610
 2:30 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

While small publishers get around 65%.

I've seen discussions about this going back for years, and the estimates have always been in this range. Frankly, what's the problem with that? Even with Google skimming as much as 35% off the top, I'm earning much more from AdSense than I could if I pursued other programs or my own ad serving, and with far less work on my part. If a publisher CAN earn more outside AdSense, then of course they should leave.

signor_john




msg:3894633
 3:01 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

I've seen discussions about this going back for years, and the estimates have always been in this range. Frankly, what's the problem with that?

There's no problem at all, because (a) Google isn't guaranteeing or even hinting at a specific percentage in its recruitment materials, and (b) most ad networks take a significantly bigger cut than the guess of 35% for Google (which guru5571 stated as is it were a fact and not the kind of speculation that passes for fact among the credulous).

I'll also point out that the notion of publishers abandoning AdSense for greener pastures is based on a misconception that there are greener pastures for Web publishers who do poorly with AdSense. Fact is, the publishers who are most likely to leave are those who are worth least to Google. Let's say that the lowest 10% of AdSense publishers (as ranked by eCPM) were to jump ship and go to other ad networks. If anything, that would make Google's content network more attractive to advertisers while making those rival networks less attractive to advertisers (since the rival networks would be absorbing Google's leavings). Who knows? Maybe Google is culling the herd by encouraging the prospective cullees to cull themselves.

skweb




msg:3894653
 3:20 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

It is hard to draw conclusions from G numbers since there are so many factors to consider. I ran some numbers for myself and find that rev dropped from $33,100 to $32,200, which comes out to be about 2%. For G it dropped by about 9%.

So maybe my traffic grew more than that of AdSense network or maybe G gave me more than other publishers or some combination of these.

netmeg




msg:3894721
 4:27 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

The only publishers I see leaving Google in any number are the ones who have been kicked out. And most of *them* are desperate to get back in.

oddsod




msg:3894813
 6:43 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

Fact is, the publishers who are most likely to leave are those who are worth least to Google.

And why would that be? A well respected site of mine with high demand from advertisers for placement ads started showing a drop in revenue. I pulled Adsense off the site and spent some time finding the right affiliate programs to promote. That site now makes 3x what it used to make. There have been other such stories here in WebmasterWorld.

A drop in revenue spurs webmasters to consider options. It happens to the good sites as much as it does to the spammy end of the market.

himalayaswater




msg:3894821
 6:57 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

There are too many adsnese publishers (with no quality control) and limited advertisers. Also, google own system gone mad with so many algos in place like smart pricing and so on..

purplecape




msg:3894898
 9:12 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

Good point, oddsod--but to my mind yours is the exception that proves the rule....

coachm




msg:3894967
 10:55 pm on Apr 17, 2009 (gmt 0)

Signor is clearly wrong about who leaves, or is rather oversimplifying. Here's the deal. People making very little (let's say .50 CPM) on adsense can replace adsense with almost anything and do as well, nearly as well or better. And yes, they are probably not all that valuable to google.

Those making the high end (as an eg. we were doing $15 CPM at peak) are so good, have quality content, traffic, ect that we also have many ways to make money. So, we at the higher end leave too. And yes, WE are valuable to google and advertisers, which is why we have options.

purplecape




msg:3894998
 12:08 am on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

I'm at the high end, by your definition, coachm, and I know I am better off in AdSense than elsewhere. Signor_john may be generalizing, but in my experience his statement is more accurate than the obverse of it would be....

signor_john




msg:3895033
 1:55 am on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

We can argue until the cows come home about which types of publishers are most likely to leave, but let's face it: AdSense revenues have grown steadily from one year to the next, which suggests that relatively few AdSense publishers are heading for the exits. There's a big difference between letting off steam and letting go of income. :-)

coachm




msg:3895036
 2:21 am on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

AdSense revenues have grown steadily from one year to the next, which suggests that relatively few AdSense publishers are heading for the exits.

Sorry, I thought we were talking about NOW, and since rev DID drop by 3%, what exactly are you talking about? To be honest, I don' get the sense in your post at all. I contains a seriously logical fallacy.

signor_john




msg:3895057
 3:09 am on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

I said "one year to the next," not "one quarter to the next." As for 1Q 2009, you just might have heard that there's an international economic crisis. And if you've been paying attention to the advertising industry, you'll know that a 3% revenue dip in 1Q 2009 is like a shining pinnacle of success at a time when most online CPMs have been plunging, ad agencies have been laying off thousands of employees, and the average newspaper or magazine is looking more anorexic than the fashion models in the Lean 'n Lanky lingerie catalog.

If any AdSense publishers are headed for the exits, they aren't exactly trampling each other in a stampede.

farmboy




msg:3895060
 3:30 am on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

Google’s aggregate number of paid clicks, which include clicks related to ads served on Google sites and the sites of partners in its AdSense program, increased approximately 17% over the first quarter of 2008 and about 3% over the fourth quarter of 2008, the company said.

FarmBoy

Scurramunga




msg:3895078
 5:49 am on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)


Fact is, the publishers who are most likely to leave are those who are worth least to Google.

And why would that be?

maybe the answer is here. It is:

..the kind of speculation that passes for fact

;-)

[edited by: Scurramunga at 5:59 am (utc) on April 18, 2009]

oddsod




msg:3895188
 2:51 pm on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

AdSense revenues have grown steadily from one year to the next, which suggests that relatively few AdSense publishers are heading for the exits.

Again, a conclusion that can't automatically be drawn. Revenue can grow despite many publishers leaving.

limited advertisers

Contrary to popular opinion there isn't a limited number of advertisers /ad budget. As an advertiser myself I can guarantee that if I could get more traffic at existing ROI there is no limit to how much of that traffic I could buy. As long as the cost of sale is $0.50 and the sale price is $1.00 I can deliver as many trillion orders as Google can send me enquiries for.

The limit is in the volume of traffic Google can provide.

signor_john




msg:3895314
 8:25 pm on Apr 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

Revenue can grow despite many publishers leaving.

If that's the case, then Google and the publishers who haven't left may be doing even better than the revenue figures would suggest! :-)

oddsod




msg:3896092
 1:46 pm on Apr 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

signor_john, you're very quick to draw conclusions ;)

If that's the case, then Google and the publishers who haven't left may be doing even better than the revenue figures would suggest!

Not necessarily. Revenue can grow even if publishers leave in large numbers. Two possible ways:
- Publishers who left could have been replaced by other publishers who joined and performed well
- Even if nobody joined some existing publishers (perhaps premium publishers) could have more than filled the gap of those that left
- Google and (and possibly DOES) change the percentage they pay out to suit their own convenience.

That Google took more or less money is not an indication of whether publishers as a group are doing better or worse.

signor_john




msg:3896103
 2:08 pm on Apr 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

The facts of the matter are that (1) AdSense revenues have grown enormously over the past six years, and (2) AdXSense payouts to publishers have grown enormously as well. Are publishers leaving (or being thrown out) in large numbers? That strikes me as being unlikely, but if it were true, it would make the revenue and payout numbers even more impressive, because Google would be raking in more (and paying out more) with fewer outlets for its ads.

signor_john




msg:3896141
 2:44 pm on Apr 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

The facts of the matter are that (1) AdSense revenues have grown enormously over the past six years, and (2) AdXSense payouts to publishers have grown enormously as well. Are publishers leaving (or being thrown out) in large numbers? That strikes me as being unlikely, but if it were true, it would make the revenue and payout numbers even more impressive, because Google would be raking in more (and paying out more) with fewer outlets for its ads.

Addendum: From a publisher's point of view, Google's total AdSense revenues, payout, and publisher population are far less important than individual earnings are. To paraphrase something that Martinibuster once said, it's more productive to focus on things that you can control (such as your content, audience, AdSense implementation, etc.) than on things that you can't (such as total Google revenues, payouts, and publisher turnover).

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