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|Is The Global Crisis a Threat to AdSense Publishers?|
As we all know that world rich economy is in downfall i.e USA, UK, and other's european countries, what will it effects on the google adword advertiser, as they will spend very little on the online advertising, and its consequent impact on the google adsense publisher? will adsense business is going to be finish in near future? do you see world depression on your adsense dailty earning?
|my site's average EPC was considerably higher in late 2008 than in late 2007. January was also quite strong. EPC has been somewhat weaker in February |
On Y/Y comparison, I do see the same. EPC began to rise significantly (on a Y/Y basis) in July. This lasted until December. January was flat, and February sees a decline.
I can not see any rationale behind the huge daily EPC (and eCPM) volatility. What I *do* see though, is that long-term average EPC is flat down to fractions of a Cent. In summer 2008 I entered this EPC, and never left it. Huge daily variations, no change in long term average. Summer vacations, server crashes, financial crisis, economical crisis, changing advertisers, Christmas - nothing impacted long-term EPC. It's rock-solid. And no, it has not always been like this.
I am under the impression that EPC is pre-determined. It's hard to believe that all the economical turmoil would not affect the bidding behaviour of advertisers. (We're not seeing this in the real world.) So, I believe that "sumthin's fishy".
|It certainly isn't related to ad targeting. |
That's the kind of generalization...
|It's hard to believe that all the economical turmoil would not affect the bidding behaviour of advertisers. |
Yes it is hard to believe if you watch too much TV. Things have turned down some but a quarter of the US isn't receiving its only meal of the day in a bread line.
In some industries, the current economic climate encourages higher bidding. It isn't hard to imagine what some of those might be if you stopped to think about it.
So far, February has been my best month ever. I had my highest earning day every, and my daily average (earnings) is at its highest.
|I am under the impression that EPC is pre-determined. It's hard to believe that all the economical turmoil would not affect the bidding behaviour of advertisers. |
Different advertisers are affected in different ways. Some advertisers cut back when times get tough; others try to increase market share; others are desperate for leads and will pay what it takes to get traffic. That was true long before the Internet was invented, and it's still true today.
What's more, publishers' average earnings per click aren't just affected by bids. They're affected by placement targeting (both CPM and CPC), advertisers' ad filters, smart pricing, how Google chooses to allocate its ad inventory, and (possibly) other factors that we don't know about. In the last year or so, there's been quite a bit of talk in advertising circles (not just in AdWords/AdSense circles) about a "flight to quality": the idea that, when times get tough and/or more corporate ad dollars get shifted into online advertising, advertisers and their agencies become more discerning about how their budgets are spent. So yes, the economy affects the behavior of advertisers, but that behavior isn't as simple as "the GDP is down X percent, so let's all of us cut our bids by X percent."
|publishers' average earnings per click aren't just affected by bids. They're affected by placement targeting (both CPM and CPC), advertisers' ad filters, smart pricing, how Google chooses to allocate its ad inventory, and (possibly) other factors that we don't know about. |
I stick to my opinion that it is very very strange that all of this does not result in changes of the long-term averages. Looking at the all-time graph, I see a straight horizontal line since June 2008. I do not see ANY economical crisis, I don't see holidays. In the past, I saw slight variations and sometimes even stalls. Since summer - no nothing.
So far I have seen not one credible explanation of this phenomenon. Not even from you and official Google sources.
I do see the economical crisis happening in the eCPM. Long-term eCPM has stalled, mostly due to a weak CTR.
|the GDP is down X percent, so let's all of us cut our bids by X percent. |
I am not saying that this should be the case. But I am saying that there should be at least SOME CHANGE visible in the EPC. The absence of the change in the long-term averages is plain weird and makes me highly suspicous.
|. But I am saying that there should be at least SOME CHANGE visible in the EPC. |
Maybe, maybe not. That's a question for a statistician (preferably a statistician who has access to your reports).
I am seeing a change in earnings this month. Down by about 20% compared to last month and the Mobile Adsense revenues collapsed so much that we switched the ads to another provider. All in all I blame it on the economy and ad spending maybe down. I know of at least one very large portal in the tourism industry that slowed down the spending in Adwords.
For my one channel.. the click is 190 and I earned $1.23 (not exact figure)
I have never seen this kind of earning in my life.. and I am real surprised how come people say it's still good?
I have come to the conclusion that the "black box" only reveals a flawed plausibility. Trying to find any sense there or debating it here is a complete waste of time.
However I am grateful to others here who confirm my conclusions and am posting now solely to express this gratitude and not to elicit some extraordinary "explanation" for the irrational stats given to me by AdSense.
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