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Christmas holidays are over
eCPM falling below middle December values
jetteroheller

WebmasterWorld Senior Member jetteroheller us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 11:10 pm on Jan 7, 2009 (gmt 0)

From middle December, eCPM climbed until christmas,
was on a good level until new year.

Just after new year the good days are over again.
eCPM below middle December values,
only impressiona rising to compensate.

 

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 12:12 am on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

I have seen such wide, irrational and erratic swings of eCPM that cannot possibly be caused by the calendar or market conditions that I've stopped trying to analyze them and now just write it off to Google-diddle.

I have better things to do than to stare into a crazy-making black box. I'm just working on improving my site, someday a better solution than Google will rise to meet it.

Logically my eCPM should be dropping precipitously now, but instead I have some very good days and some very bad which do not correlate to events--just like in December.

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 1:03 am on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

My traffic, AdSense eCPM, and daily AdSense earnings are all up this month. But that's normal, because November and December are always my slowest months of the year, and I always see a nice bump in January. Different topics = different seasonal trends!

stateofmind

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 5:10 am on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

jetteroheller:

The exact same thing goes for me. cCPM up from the middle of December until New Year, then my eCPM has fallen considerable again.

CTR is down, lots of crappy ads, and EPC is down too.

jetteroheller

WebmasterWorld Senior Member jetteroheller us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 5:38 am on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

CTR is down, lots of crappy ads, and EPC is down too.

I looked on some of my pages.

Very good ads, but very bad CTR.

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 8:16 am on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

Looking at sad figures here.

2006: January traffic peak was +80% compared to December
2007: January traffic peak was +60% compared to December
2008: January traffic peak was +40% compared to December
2009: so far a very weak peak, barely visible in the numbers

Doesn't look good at all (for us).

My traffic, AdSense eCPM, and daily AdSense earnings are all up this month.

It's good to see that some seem to stem against the trend almost effortlessly. Very good. That may give some hope to those who still believe in Adsense. (I don't.) In general I am 100% with OnlyToday when he writes:

I have seen such wide, irrational and erratic swings of eCPM that cannot possibly be caused by the calendar or market conditions that I've stopped trying to analyze them and now just write it off to Google-diddle. I have better things to do than to stare into a crazy-making black box. I'm just working on improving my site, someday a better solution than Google will rise to meet it.

HuskyPup



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 3:36 pm on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

I'm always hesitant to write this since it seems as though I put a curse on earnings!

As with signor_john all my metrics have been improving and yesterday saw my best day since the first week of December with daily earnings so far since the 1st January very stable, in fact the last few days of December were much better than anticipated too.

Traffic is not yet back to pre ThanksGiving Day levels however definitely heading in the right direction...I wonder how long this will last?

[edited by: HuskyPup at 3:36 pm (utc) on Jan. 8, 2009]

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 4:48 pm on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

That may give some hope to those who still believe in Adsense. (I don't.)

AdSense is just an ad network. What's to believe in or not believe in? Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Eric Schmidt aren't the Holy Trinity, and nobody is selling letters from the Google logo as relics of the True Cross. :-

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 6:20 pm on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

What's to believe in or not believe in? Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Eric Schmidt aren't the Holy Trinity, and nobody is selling letters from the Google logo as relics of the True Cross. :-

The implication I got from Zett's comment was "AdSense (as reliable source of income)." I didn't sense at all that he was looking for a redemption of his soul or even spiritual guidance. Where do you get these ideas?

Well, maybe that's part of a smilie face at the end of your sentence, if it's a joke, never mind. :) (LOL)

[edited by: OnlyToday at 6:27 pm (utc) on Jan. 8, 2009]

jetteroheller

WebmasterWorld Senior Member jetteroheller us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 6:53 pm on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Eric Schmidt aren't the Holy Trinity

I tried several times to monetize my sites since 1997.

My first Google month June 2004 had been more than 10 times better than an other attempt before.

No other company paid me $157000.- for things what I want to do.

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 8:09 pm on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

The implication I got from Zett's comment was "AdSense (as reliable source of income)."

What's to believe or not believe? Just look at the numbers. If they're good enough to justify leaving the AdSense ad unit(s) on the page, great. If not, delete the AdSense code (or maybe leave the code on just enough pages to check eCPM from time to time).

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 10:52 pm on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

What's to believe or not believe? Just look at the numbers.

Put me down for "not believe." The numbers in the past were different. I don't need a lecture about how this is all my fault. I was a Google defender and promoter for a very long time. Things change.

I do think the economic downturn will shake more business into the internet and it will probably be a few years before things are good again overall. By that time someone (maybe me) will figure out a better way to monetize the online shopper. In the mean time I will reluctantly work with AdSense.

I have already deleted AdSense code from a large number of my high traffic pages (and deleted many of the pages themselves) due to low eCPM.

[edited by: OnlyToday at 10:55 pm (utc) on Jan. 8, 2009]

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 11:33 pm on Jan 8, 2009 (gmt 0)

I have already deleted AdSense code from a large number of my high traffic pages (and deleted many of the pages themselves) due to low eCPM.

Just out of curiosity, why did you delete many of the pages themselves? Isn't it shortsighted to let your editorial policy be dictated by AdSense eCPMs?

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 12:21 am on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

Isn't it shortsighted to let your editorial policy be dictated by AdSense eCPMs?

There were other reasons besides eCPM but policy is easily dictated by ROI. Maintaining pages that don't pay doesn't make much sense even if they are popular. My time is a scarce resource.

simstar

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 3:05 am on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

december ecpm was terrible for me roughly 50% lower than the past 18 months. Thankfully it has returned this month and 2009 has started well.

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 6:34 am on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

The implication I got from Zett's comment was "AdSense (as reliable source of income)." I didn't sense at all that he was looking for a redemption of his soul or even spiritual guidance.

Thanks, OnlyToday.

asinah

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 7:47 am on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

jetteroheller,
I wanted to post something semilaer as what you posted and I started in 1995 with my first website. From the day I joined Adsense, I made some good fortunes. Adsense numbers have been going down for the past few months which I blame on the economy and the global financial crisis and my focus for the past few months is producing good content in exotic languages without Adsense in my mind and the results have been very encouraging. If Adsense would be gone today, I would still be a webmaster tomorrow.

Mentat

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 10:39 am on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

Something is strange and wrong.
Since 05.01.2009 our eCPM and clickrate is now 30% lower.

That's happend suddenly with a site that has ~ 1 mil unique visitors/day and a lot of different advertisers.

Traffic is normal.

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 4:17 pm on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

Something is strange and wrong.

Yes. For some time I have noticed inconsistencies that under ordinary circumstances I would associate with a flim flam and would call for an audit.

But as some here will go to great lengths to explain, that is simply impossible and I must be imagining things. Perhaps I am mentally unstable or have very little experience in business and cannot really judge such patterns.

Yes, they will explain it away properly. They will say that I should go elsewhere if AdSense is not producing for me. Perhaps I should. But I had been a great believer for a long time. I had high hopes and great faith. Perhaps that caused me to linger when I should have pulled up stakes and ran. Perhaps now I am kind of stuck without an acceptable alternative and must hobble along with this second-rate and questionable partner who treats me badly. I'll just have to keep listening to the wretched apologists who are quite skilled at explaining how this predicament is all my fault. Maybe they are right, maybe I am a fool. Maybe we all are fools just hoping for better days.

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 4:41 pm on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

under ordinary circumstances I would associate with a flim flam and would call for an audit.

Yep. Been a mild defender of Google in the past (until 2005 or so), but today I would like to see a 100% audit of Google, their way of working, and their way of determining the payouts to us.

I have looked at long-term data over the past few days and now, in the middle of the economical crisis, I start to see patterns that can not be explained rationally. But it all makes sense to me now. The black box has just become a bit transparent.

These changes, and of course the weird daily data, can not be easily explained by market forces or user behaviour.

Swanny007

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 5:31 pm on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

My AdSense eCPM has tanked since Jan 1. In looking closer it seems just my flagship site is really suffering which is causing my entire account to see a lower eCPM. Earnings are down, but they're also down with TribalFusion as well (down big time there too).

Well as long as I can keep paying the bills with some $$ left over, great. If not then I need to do something differently. AdSense is down for me, but so are other ad networks. If things continue to stay down I'll have to take some kind of action. One week worth of lower revenue isn't the end of the world, but if it continues to decline or just plain continues then I'll be worried. Maybe I'll be more proactive in getting direct advertisers ;-)

drall

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 7:03 pm on Jan 9, 2009 (gmt 0)

Dec eCPM down 30% over last year, down 70% from 2003-2006 levels across almost every site.

Jan eCPM is down a additional 20% from Dec. These drops appear across the entire account pointing to a clear revenue share shift.

This was not only expected but we anticipated it when we saw Google canning contractors, lavish parties and Christmas bonuses of 1000.00 per employee.

Fortunately all of our eggs are not in one basket and we moved a substantial portion of our inventory to other partners which are seeing very handsome growth in both epc and ctr.

I used to blame Google, after a post here with EFV last year in which are account was slammed by 60% across the board I took a serious look inward.

I learned that the only one to blame here is ourselves.

Google is but a mere piece of our pie now and I find myself logging in less and less as the months go by.

Overall our business revenues are up 350% last year but not with Google.

Honestly folks, what did you expect them to do? They already get 100% of the revenue on search, well there is only one other place to tap extra revenue to meet expectations when the #$!@ hits the fan and guess what that place is...

We lived through the last implosion at the turn of the decade, we will live through this one but only through a diverse set of income providing partners.

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 7:20 am on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

what did you expect them to do? They already get 100% of the revenue on search, well there is only one other place to tap extra revenue to meet expectations when the #$!@ hits the fan and guess what that place is...

A stunningly simple statement, yet so true. I never looked at it that way. Where shall growth in revenue and profit come from in times of an economical crisis?

An analysis of our data shows very strange longterm movements (of eCPM, so ignoring the traffic levels) that can not be easily explained by market forces.

rocco

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 1:10 pm on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

Google will not do risky things with the content network, then this is the weak point that Microsoft could take advantage of.

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 3:09 pm on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

Google will not do risky things with the content network, then this is the weak point that Microsoft could take advantage of.

They have been acting "risky" for a long time:

- Treating publishers badly
- Little to no meaningful support
- Ignoring feature requests (or asking to make a business case for feature requests ;-)
- 100% intransparency (no way to check what they pay to publishers)
- No policing of ads or advertisers
- Insufficient tools to filter ads or advertisers

I'd love to see Microsoft taking advantage of these weaknesses.

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 3:18 pm on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

100% intransparency (no way to check what they pay to publishers)

Really? I just look in my bank account. :-)

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 5:27 pm on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

Really? I just look in my bank account. :-)

:-) Yah. Sure. Nevermind.

Let me be more precise then:

100% intransparency
- no way to check which ads show (except for the broken preview tool that shows some ads)
- no way to check which ads were clicked
- no way to check the landing pages for ads that were clicked
- no way to check what they pay for a specific click
- no way to check the revenue share for a specific click

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 6:33 pm on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

Well, as netmeg has said, "Adsense is what it is." And let's be realistic: The fact that some people complain incessantly about AdSense while continuing to use it suggests that Google isn't under any great pressure to turn the network into something that it isn't--and that it was never intended to be.

chinook

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 7:30 pm on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

I am not about to comment on what is going on with ecpm in my personal situation (yeah it is down but I am blaming the economy). What I do wonder is this. It would seem to make a lot of sense that with all the bad economy news going around that internet advertising being one of the cheapest ways of going (compared to a superbowl ad) should be rising and so programs like adsense should be increasing, more ads, higher bids etc? So is it that business has not figured out yet what they need to do?

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3821498 posted 8:52 pm on Jan 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

It would seem to make a lot of sense that with all the bad economy news going around that internet advertising being one of the cheapest ways of going (compared to a superbowl ad) should be rising and so programs like adsense should be increasing, more ads, higher bids etc? So is it that business has not figured out yet what they need to do?

It isn't that simple. For some types of advertising (getting the mass market to drink Bud Lite, for example), TV commercials make a lot more sense than AdSense-style ads do. And Super Bowl commercials (the example you used) often have other purposes beyond merely conveying a message to the viewer: They help to motivate the sales force, reassure distributors and dealers, and build buzz among consumers--including those who didn't watch the Super Bowl--through conversations like "Did you see that great Apple spot where the bulldog with the iPod gave his headphones to a poodle and played 'I Will Always Love You'?"

For the most part, AdSense ads fall into the "search ad" category, meaning pay-per-click text ads. Such ads are great for specific applications, such as promotions and lead generation, but they're just one piece of an overall advertising plan. In fact, several recent studies have shown that even search ads work best when then they get "lift" from display ads.

For what it's worth, some of us have witnessed substantial increases in AdSense EPC in recent months, so bids aren't necessarily the problem. Getting consumers to click and convert for the advertiser is the bigger challenge in an economy where many people are understandably nervous about their jobs, debt load, and savings.

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