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Impact of Global Financial Market Chaos on AdSense Revenue
potentialgeek

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:56 am on Oct 10, 2008 (gmt 0)

Up/Down/Same?

So far I don't see any changes. No advertisers have pulled out or backed off.

You?

p/g

 

netmeg

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 4:23 pm on Oct 14, 2008 (gmt 0)

I dunno, but no complaints from me.

Lame_Wolf

WebmasterWorld Senior Member lame_wolf us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 4:44 pm on Oct 14, 2008 (gmt 0)

since last saturday my earnings have severely dropped. :(

timchuma

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 4:55 am on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

Not enough data, ask me in a couple of years.

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:28 am on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

- Last Saturday was the worst day of the year (new low in total revenue for 2008). Ouch. And it is just October, with the worst time yet to come. Typically I see a "low" around Christmas.

- CTR over the past two weeks have significantly dropped from their long-term moving averages. My visitors are not clicking as they used to over the past 3+ years. I saw such low CTR rates only after being new to the program, for about six weeks, and then never again. I remember that targeting at that time was an issue. So it could also be weak economy PLUS bad targeting (but I am seeing mostly related ads on my sites).

I'd say, it's the economy.

andrewshim

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 7:22 am on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

Same with zett. I'm seeing revenue at about 40% normal average. Traffic is targetted and up, but earnings down. Not really experiencing off target ads.

And yes (yikes) December is probably going to be a killer. Guess I'll just have to settle for one Bugati instead of two this Christmas...

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 9:38 am on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

one Bugati instead of two this Christmas

Yeah. I looked at the beautiful 1:24 scale models, too, and found that I can only afford one. Too bad.

;-)

HuskyPup



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 1:19 pm on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

Last Saturday was the worst day of the year

Saturday and Sunday were pretty dire for me at about 50% of the daily average. Strangely my logs tell me my traffic was well below average however Google Page Impressions were normal!

Monday was my second best day this month and, my normally best day of the week, Tuesday, crashed in spectacular style...again, the third consecutive well-below average Tuesday.

My overall daily clicks are, like many others, substantially down however my EPC is definitely up at present therefore earnings have not yet nose-dived, having said that they are 50% of two years ago!

Breathe in and tighten belt comes to mind! Or stop drinking so much beer:-)

signor_john



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 2:58 pm on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

There's a new article [mediapost.com] from MediaPost Publications that says the average display ad page generated a CPM of just 27 cents during 3Q 2008--down 46% from the 4th quarter of last year. The article quotes the CEO of PubMatic as saying ""It's not surprising that it's been trending down, but what is surprising is the size of the drop."

Granted, the article is about display ads (which obviously represent a minority of AdSense ads), but the numbers do suggest that many advertisers are cutting budgets and spending their dollars more selectively.

(Side note: In the sample of 5,000 or so Web sites, small publishers typically earned higher display-ad CPMs than large publishers by a 3-to-1 ratio--probably because their audiences are more targeted. In my opinion, there's a lesson in those numbers for AdSense publishers: Audience does matter, and as Google continues to refine the AdSense network, being able to reach the right audiences--not just optimizing for keywords--will be what separates the haves from the have-nots.)

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 4:53 pm on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

...being able to reach the right audiences--

Indeed. Three days ago I split off a segment from a popular page which could have been split again into smaller segments but I thought it would have too small an appeal. Immediately, in fact just later that same day, this new page began getting extraordinary numbers from Google so I split it again. Both pages are now doing almost as well as the original page which still does OK. Narrow, narrow, narrow...

But is "audience" the right term for a mute page?

wolfadeus

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:10 pm on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

Slow decrease since June/July, measured in CTR - but earnings per click decreased, too.

sutrostyle

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 8:32 pm on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

slow decline since june, then accelerated decline in the last 10 days. now ecpm is 50% that of may/june. Shifting impressions to other ad networks.

ruip

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 11:06 pm on Oct 15, 2008 (gmt 0)

I have several sites with major target vistors from Portugal and Brazil.
Since 20 Setember, more a less, daily global dollar gain is less then normal, but.....
i look to dollar and compare to real and euro and in the final value for revenue is the same, same visitors same ads no changes only dollar V Euro V Real(Brazilian coin) value change.
In adsense report ecpm of course is lower, but ecpm is in US dollar. I talk with other editors and they said global value for click decrease in EURO...
I haven't any significant change if i calculate daily value to EUROS.
Sorry my bad english

dibbern2

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:11 am on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

How can a bad economy NOT have an effect? This week's commerce reports show retail spending has fallen and retailers are forecasting a dire December. Investments and banking fell over the edge. Realty is a sad joke. The US troubles have spread to the Europe and Asian markets.
How could we expect that somehow we'll dodge this bullet?

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:37 am on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

How can a bad economy NOT have an effect?

Ah. There might be even winners.

Imagine you have been selling cheap (and cheap looking) cars in Silicon Valley. Every day you see the luxury-car-driving-crowd from various startup and think - "Geez. I wish these were my customers." - Then comes the financial crisis, and you see your chance. You fire up a nice ad on Google, offering cheap cars in The Valley, and next day your showroom is full of people. :-)

Is that car dealer happy about the crisis? Sure. Do the websites displaying his ads see a downturn? Nope. They see nothing or even increases. So, some businesses might not see a change.

As a whole, I agree though. There's no way this could possibly bypass the web publishing world.

potentialgeek

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 6:06 am on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

> How can a bad economy NOT have an effect? This week's commerce reports show retail spending has fallen and retailers are forecasting a dire December. Investments and banking fell over the edge. Realty is a sad joke. The US troubles have spread to the Europe and Asian markets. How could we expect that somehow we'll dodge this bullet?

I think you answered your own question. Publishers who aren't in the investment/banking/realty sectors may not see losses. My stats are still about the same as usual. Sites that don't target lower income consumers (who have to cut spending due to the 'recession') could continue unscathed.

Also, the infusion of capital by the U.S. government and other governments may soon have a positive effect on consumer confidence. It could be a while, though, for inter-bank lending to pick up.

p/g

"Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours."--Ronald Reagan

sutrostyle

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 6:11 am on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

I think this may just be the beginning. I am trying to get ready to furter 50-70% ecpm drop, because google may continue to provide sweet fixed payout deals to the likes of Myspace as the advertising market starts to shrink, at the expense of smaller guys like us.

netmeg

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 2:20 pm on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

I try to stick to niches that are mostly economy-proof. There are goods and services that people are still going to need no matter what the stock markets do.

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:25 pm on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

I try to stick to niches that are mostly economy-proof.

Very smart in a downturn. But if you don't grab a hot niche when times are good you'll miss all the goodies. I'm in a cyclical sector but haven't suffered at all yet.

After the toxic hedge funds unwind we will see a very hot boom in some sectors (not housing related), find 'em nutmeg and you'll do much better.

HuskyPup



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:46 pm on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

a very hot boom in some sectors (not housing related)

Not lower end housing sector, the middle and upper end and those with good equity within their properties should remain fairly stable since many of those home owners are not being affected by this debacle.

Responsible homeowners "should" have known for quite a long time that this "house party boom" would end in tears.

jhood

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 8:39 pm on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

The downturn hasn't really started yet. The events of the last few months are like a volcanic eruption -- lots of rumbling, smoke, even a few flames. But it's when the lava starts flowing downhill that Main Street turns to stone.

Those old enough to remember the extended economic downturn in the U.S. during the 1970s will tell you that, once they get started, recessions continue for a long time. Many economists think this one will last five to ten years.

However, online advertising is more targeted, more efficient and more affordable than the established monopolist media and not nearly as likely to suffer greatly, IMHO. When this all ends, we'll be talking about how there used to be newspapers, magazines and even radio stations. How quaint.

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 9:31 pm on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

Those old enough to remember the extended economic downturn in the U.S. during the 1970s will tell you that, once they get started, recessions continue for a long time.

If you're that old, you know that it's "always different this time." Indeed, there was no China, no India, no Russia in the '70's. There was no internet and electronic trading was an exotica. Yes, things will move faster--don't underestimate this generation.

One thing is certain, inflation will be the next tsunami and it will make your head spin this time.

Many economists think this one will last five to ten years.

Ya right, how many of them were blindsided by this crisis? Most of them. Economists who have really valuable information don't give it away.

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 9:59 pm on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

...the middle and upper end and those with good equity within their properties should remain fairly stable...

"Fairly stable" is not a boom. The time to look for the next bubble is now and no it will absolutely not be in housing.

rocco

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 10:59 pm on Oct 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

Everything during this crisis may happen quicker, but more painful.

netmeg

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 2:10 am on Oct 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

(netmeg)

All kinds of niches that work no matter what the economy is doing - healthcare, entertainment (specially the free or cheap kind), home living stuff, DIY, a lot of tech stuff - all good.

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 6:46 am on Oct 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

(netmeg)

So sorry, I've been mistaking you for the Connecticut spice for weeks.

LostOne

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 11:44 am on Oct 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

"The time to look for the next bubble is now and no it will absolutely not be in housing. "

I think they've all popped...what else is left?..oh..gold.

netmeg

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 1:52 pm on Oct 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

So sorry, I've been mistaking you for the Connecticut spice for weeks.

Common mistake, but actually I'm in Michigan.

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 3:23 pm on Oct 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

I think they've all popped...what else is left?..oh..gold.

Since the US taxpayer cannot possibly pay for all the bailouts and with so many mortgaged homes under water (financially) inflation is the only thing left. Yes, gold tops off the next bubble but anything with a price tag is in it. Get depth of inventory now on any non-perishable that you use on a regular basis because in a year it will be giving a much better return than money in the bank. Then there will be fine art and other collectibles. And once real estate prices actually bottom there will be that but calling the bottom there will be tricky.

But that's only the most obvious next bubble, the people who profited from the last two bubbles are already cooking up their next scheme--count on it.

an edit: I should add that there's a remote possibility that the opposite will happen, world-wide depression and deflation but my guess is that the tinkerers-in-charge will find inflation more palatable.

[edited by: OnlyToday at 3:45 pm (utc) on Oct. 17, 2008]

jhood

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 4:22 pm on Oct 18, 2008 (gmt 0)

Indeed, there was no China, no India, no Russia in the '70's.

Hmmm ... Then where did all those Chinese and Indian restaurants come from?

HuskyPup



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 4:38 pm on Oct 18, 2008 (gmt 0)

Indeed, there was no China, no India, no Russia in the '70's.

And I suppose not one of them had that indespensable piece of equipment...the telex!

I don't suppose telephones worked then either, nor were there televisions or newspapers?

Yes, things will move faster--don't underestimate this generation.

Oh...is it this generation that lives for today and not for tomorrow? The many of this generation who have actually caused all these problems with their speculations?

Do not be surprised with the amount of new regulations these modern day snake oil sales people will be burdened, perhaps if they actually worked for a living instead of playing in a worldwide betting game all the time then society may possibly be far better off.

OnlyToday

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3762656 posted 5:39 pm on Oct 18, 2008 (gmt 0)

And I suppose not one of them had that indespensable piece of equipment...the telex! I don't suppose telephones worked then either, nor were there televisions or newspapers?

HuskyPup and jhood, if you do not understand the profound impact that China, India, and Russia have gained in just the past decade, not to mention the vast difference in the speed of communications and data and money transfer, I cannot take your opinions seriously.

Yes, it is very different this time, a pity some still live in the 1970's.

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