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Google's Quarterly Financial Report Due Mid April is Highly Anticipated
Impact on AdSense for Content Publishers
calman




msg:3612797
 10:53 pm on Mar 27, 2008 (gmt 0)

There are a plethora of news items on the internet today commenting on Google's poor paid click results for January and February. Growth of paid clicks has apparently basically come to a halt.

The poor data is putting further pressure on Google's stock price which has already decreased by 40% since November. Many financial analysts are clearly disturbed.

Some have commented that the poor results are due to the recession while others say that it is due to changes in Google's internal operations (algorithmic changes and so on). A couple of others believe there are fundamental changes occurring in the structure of the internet advertising market.

At any rate, Google's upcoming quarterly financial report due in mid April is now clearly the most anticipated set of financial results which they have issued in the last few years.

It will be interesting to see if there will be any new information in the report which will be of particular interest for AdSense for Content publishers.

 

Roseb44170




msg:3612835
 12:25 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

It's all just so hard for me to comprehend. For one thing with all the posts about low click-thru-rates and low CPM's, I have been doing very good with my adsense earnings and my March 2008 payment will be my highest yet!

Having a business of any kind - no matter how big or how small it is - is always going to have problems and conflicts. As far as Google's price share is concerned stock prices go up and down all the time. But it has made me think that maybe Google is just buying too many companies too soon - but that's just my personal opinion.

We have already gone through a "scare" period with these new TOS rules so let us hope that we don't have anything else to be scared about.

martinibuster




msg:3612850
 12:48 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

The most anticipated report at this moment is the comScore report for February.

I don't think the quarterly report or the comScore report will have any impact for publishers. How could the quarterly report have an impact on AdSense publishers? It never did before when the financials were sunnier.

What will have an impact is Google's continuing and ongoing efforts to weed out irrelevant ads and removing rogue advertisers and publishers- something that is not tied to the reports.

According to CNN Money [money.cnn.com]

...comScore Inc. on Wednesday will add a series of new metrics to its twice-delayed February paid- click report, data that help Wall Street analysts gauge the health of Google Inc.'s (GOOG) search advertising business.

ComScore's decision... raised questions about whether the company was altering its report... to paint a more favorable picture for Google.

...Others, however, argued that comScore was taking no chances after issuing an ambiguous report last month and then clarifying its analysis a few days later.

"Their credibility will be shot to pieces if they keep ringing the alarm bell and Google comes in with a strong Q1," said Jeffrey Lindsay, analyst at Bernstein Research.

And in this report from Bloomberg [bloomberg.com], comScore posted that Google's paid clicks were up 3% over February last year, but down 3% from last month.

Clicks on Google's sponsored links -- four-line ads that mostly run alongside search results -- rose 3 percent to 515 million in February from a year earlier, researcher ComScore Inc. said today. In January, Google had no growth, after a 25 percent increase in the fourth quarter.

The data may heighten investors' fears that a stumbling housing market, higher oil prices and a possible recession will curb online shopping...


mrjones




msg:3612873
 1:39 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

With the low clicks 95 % of publishers are getting recently,put your money on G to annouce a good profit.
There is no transperancy they can open and close the tap on anything as they wish,algo's, clicks,returns,Pr,SEP positions ladi dah.

purplecape




msg:3612892
 2:06 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

Wow, 95%? Where can I find some more information about that? I"d like to read some more about that.

Januuski




msg:3612923
 3:13 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

I agree, the quarterly report has bigger impact on AdSense than most publishers here would expect.

I'm expecting "Higher than expected" results. Why? Even though clicks reported are only 3% up, Google AdWords is charging way more per click and based on the reports from "most" publishers Google is paying less to them.

Flat click + higher Adwords click price + lower commission for publishers = Higher profits.

Go GOOG! I hope to make some "change" on my $500 September options.

martinibuster




msg:3612927
 3:25 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

>>>the quarterly report has bigger impact on AdSense than most publishers here would expect.

Januuski, what is the impact?
:)

potentialgeek




msg:3612939
 3:55 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

martinibuster, thanks.

Anyone who starts a thread on the news needs to quote+cite+link.

p/g

zett




msg:3613106
 10:33 am on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

martinibuster:

Google's paid clicks were up 3% over February last year, but down 3% from last month

2008 is a leap year, and February had 29 days, a 3.6% increase over 2007.

So daily clicks were flat from Feb 2007 to Feb 2008, continuing the trend set forth in January 2008.

Januuski




msg:3613281
 1:28 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

Januuski, what is the impact?

The only way how you can increase profits to please your shareholders when you have flat clicks is to charge advertisers more and pay less to publishers.

[edited by: jatar_k at 12:58 pm (utc) on Mar. 29, 2008]

purplecape




msg:3613324
 2:06 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

I'm still puzzled that people talk about "most" or "95%" of publishers seeing lower EPC, as if this was common knowledge. What's the source of this information? It hasn't been my experience.

ecmedia




msg:3613334
 2:16 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

If I had money to spare I would buy Google stock. I have no info about the larger data for Google but insofar as I am concerned this quarter has been one of the best. eCPM is high (obviously CTR is high) and I find that all those so-called market research firms are desperately trying to sell their reports (in a recession) by creating hype that somehow the end of Google is near. I hope I am proved right. What G is doing is good for advertisers (and trust me, eventually, for publishers and G) and even if there is a short term low CTR eventually it has raised the price of a click because in the end advertisers are paying for value which has gone up.

martinibuster




msg:3613487
 4:14 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

The only way how you can increase profits to please your shareholders when you have flat clicks is to charge advertisers more and pay less to publishers.

That's not an impact, that's a theory. Last year when things were sunnier some people theorized the profits were made off of skimming. Now that clicks are low the theorizing about skimming continues. Where's the impact? Accusations of skimming happen no matter what comes out of Google, Comscore or Wall Street. :) hehe

Januuski




msg:3613557
 5:42 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

That's not an impact, that's a theory. Last year when things were sunnier some people theorized the profits were made off of skimming. Now that clicks are low the theorizing about skimming continues. Where's the impact? Accusations of skimming happen no matter what comes out of Google, Comscore or Wall Street. :) hehe

I'm not going to argue with you because you and few others will never accept anything negative about Google and especially AdSense.

I have been advertising with AdWords and have AdSense account since the very beginning. I see what is going on and we have adjusted our business that we are not 1% dependable on AdWords or AdSense. Our adWords campaigns cost increased more than 200% year over year and AdSense revenues decreased dramatically too.

Bottom line is: I'm a business man involved in online business and managing nice stock portfolio. How I said, I'm hoping GOOG will go up because I have some $500 stock options.

[edited by: jatar_k at 1:00 pm (utc) on Mar. 29, 2008]

martinibuster




msg:3613562
 5:50 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

>>>will never accept anything negative about Google

Oh bull#*$!. I've been plenty critical of Google and butted heads with EFV on many, many occassions with criticism about Google. You're wrong on that count.

The point here is not whether Google is skimming or not- don't change the subject. The point is whether these reports have any impact, and they don't. The grumbling or Google ass-kissing goes on no matter what is in those financials.

>>>Impact on AdSense for Content Publishers
The reports themselves? None. They're only chronicles of things that already happened.

Januuski




msg:3613574
 5:59 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

The point is whether these reports have any impact, and they don't.

What you are saying is that Google doesnt care about shareholders therefore they dont need to deliver results. In that case the QFR has no impact.

My opinion is that Google has a lots of pissed investors and they need to produce "better than expected" numbers. If that is the case and you have flat clicks your only options are to charge more for advertising or to pay less to your publishers. That would be the impact I was talking about.

Quite honestly you may be right as Google (probably) doesnt give a too much s..t about their shareholders.

LifeinAsia




msg:3613595
 6:28 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

Growth of paid clicks has apparently basically come to a halt.

Are we talking total NUMBER of clicks or total REVENUE from clicks? They are 2 separate issues (with completely different possible causes) and are not necessarily related.

purplecape




msg:3613634
 6:57 pm on Mar 28, 2008 (gmt 0)

What I see happening is Google attempting to increase the overall quality in BOTH the publisher and advertiser camps. This has been going on for at least a year now, with a number of big initiatives (last summer's attempt to root out MFA sites, for example) and some less visible or at least less talked about tweaks. I don't think they are done yet. Whatever comes out in that quarterly report will have no impact on that initiative--it's a long-term initiative.

I also suspect that they are willing to see at least a couple of quarters of no or reduced growth, because they are building a platform for FUTURE growth.

Changes that people are experiencing, in my opinion, are due either to random variation, advertiser changes, or to Google's quality initiative, not to any money grab by Google. They just don't need to do it.

Making the facile assumption that Google skittishly responds to every grimace from Wall St. and that that is the cause of declining earnings may be hurting many webmasters, because it makes them feel better but is out of their control--and so they don't look at their sites or dig deeper for possible real causes of declining earnings.

Making that assumption also ignores the fact that Google is not set up like many US corporations are. Yes, many corporations do get caught up in short-term strategies to please shareholders. Google doesn't need to....

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