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February 2008: Looking Worse than January?
Does it have to do with the Economy
morpheus83

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 4:29 am on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)


System: The following 3 messages were cut out of thread at: http://www.webmasterworld.com/google_adsense/3550643.htm [webmasterworld.com] by martinibuster - 2:38 am on Feb. 16, 2008 (utc -8)


It seems February will be worst than January. Just out of the blue, does it have something to do with the Economy slowing down?

 

janethuggard

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 7:41 am on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

As mentioned earlier, I too was finding since Oct a major slip. I mades some major changes in January, as posted above, changed every page on my site, added a new ad format size and removed an ad format as well.

From what I can see now, several weeks into trials, the new ad format added and page redesign made a huge difference. I managed to increase earnings back to 2006 levels and more, which were my peak.

This is not because I was smart priced, nor because I am getting a higher percentage.

There are several things at play here. First, those higher cpc are back. I saw a $12 click last week, and many clicks of $1 to $4. This was a result of one particular thing I did for a fact, but I am not sharing, or for a fact, in my narrow nitch, earnings will fall again.

But, suffice it to say, it is within the power of every webmaster to take their existing content and optimize it. The Google blame game will not correct an earnings slump.

When I added the new ad format, I channeled each and every one. So, I can see that I have about a $300 month increase from that format alone, with no slump in the old format that is still on the site, because they too are all channeled to the teeth, and have increased as well. So, I didn't replace income from one format with another.

One things I hate to admit, is this. The format size I added, I have always hated. I tried it early on, it didn't work, I pulled it, and never looked back. My closed mindedness has cost me thousands of dollars. what didn't work in 2005, works great in 2008.

It appears I will likey finish up $300 over Feb 2006 and right now I have nearly the same earnings half way through this month, that I had the ENTIRE month of Feb 2007.

All this, I am quite sure, because I hunkered down and worked to find out what I, not Google, was doing wrong.

As said before, only 25% of my traffic is repeat, nearly all organic search engine traffic. So, it is highly unlikey ad blindness played a signifcant part in all this.

I will say one thing. I goofed. I discovered a mistake I had made way back. It was a simple little thing, and it has been costing me major money into the thousands. Shame on me. Finding that error was a major key to getting my earnings back. There is no doubt there.

It was a combination of factors, not just a single thing, and it had nothing to Google and everything to do with my own failures.

There. You have it. Finally, somebody taking responsiblity for their own failures instead of blaming Google.

Maybe others can learn from this painful admission.

sutrostyle

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 9:01 am on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

We tried deleting channels, recreating channels, we have 4 different ad formats, nothing helped. In Aug 2007 our ecpm dropped by 30%, and in Oct 2007 by another 40%.
Traffic grew by about 4x during this period. There's something wrong. I suspect we are paying for their Myspace fixed payout deal.

nomis5

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 11:12 am on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

Janet, would it be too much to ask what the mistake was when you wrote:

"I discovered a mistake I had made way back. It was a simple little thing ......"

rj87uk

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 11:16 am on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

Swings and Roundabouts.

Personally ive been hitting a new record each month for the past year.

Hobbs

WebmasterWorld Senior Member hobbs us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 12:07 pm on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

Interesting post Janet.

but I am not sharing, or for a fact, in my narrow nitch, earnings will fall again

Appreciate your need to keep it to yourself, let's stay away from your niche then.. When you said "with no slump in the old format" do you mean that you added the new ad format in addition to the old on the same page or replaced the old, and how many ad units do you have per page?

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 2:00 pm on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

I'm seeing almost exactly the same average daily numbers in February as in January, with February showing a statistically insignificant improvement in eCPM.

The better news is that February, 2008 is showing much higher EPC and noticeably higher eCPM than February, 2007.

HuskyPup



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 2:05 pm on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

It's funny this post is here since I was thinking about comparing my metrics this morning.

Feb 1-15 2008 v Jan 1-15 2008 Earnings +22.75%

Feb 1-15 2008 v Jan 1-15 2008 EPC +12.99%

Feb 1-15 2008 v Feb 1-15 2007 Earnings -12.55%

Feb 1-15 2008 v Feb 1-15 2007 EPC +19.84%

My EPC has been much more stable the past few weeks it's only the reduction in CTR that seems to have reduced the overall earnings compared to last year however everything is substantially better than the post-Glitch October & November metrics.

dibbern2

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 7:39 pm on Feb 16, 2008 (gmt 0)

Finally, somebody taking responsiblity for their own failures instead of blaming Google.

Way to go!

moTi

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 12:46 am on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

hmm, i'm seeing a very low click amount (-40%) in combination with a much better epc (+40%) especially since last week. that's significant changes, you know.

is it a trend?
users increasingly click-lazy and advertisers paying more to retain their click amount?
or new algo prefering higher quality/paying ads no one clicks on?

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 1:26 am on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

is it a trend?
users increasingly click-lazy and advertisers paying more to retain their click amount?
or new algo prefering higher quality/paying ads no one clicks on?

I'm seeing only a slight drop in CTR compared to last month, and I suspect that layout changes are the main reason. (I've moved most of my AdSense units "below the fold.")

Atomic

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 2:12 am on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

In the last few days I saw my traffic plummet. Someone had given me a link on a large social networking site. It brought in a ton of traffic. My CTR and eCPM plummeted. I checked into the link. It was to my site map which I thought was odd. All the other links this person made were to homepages or specific articles.

After a couple days my ads were super poorly targeted and my earnings tanked. I examined the traffic more and saw that unlike the rest of my usual visitors, these new visitors used a different browser. They didn't click and few went beyond this link. I began to wonder how I ended up with an ad unit on my sitemap. I also had left one on my contact page. I added some code to remove ads from these pages. I added more code that removes ads for visitors from the new link. I'll take the link, but the traffic from that location appeared to be affecting my earnings.

Since removing the ads from those pages and deciding not to show ads to what I consider to be expecially savvy visitors, earnings and targeting are back to normal.

I can't help but feel the individual that provided the link was trying to negatively affect my earnings. It seemed suspicious from the start and I'm glad I kept an eye on what happened.

[edited by: Atomic at 2:13 am (utc) on Feb. 17, 2008]

loudspeaker

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 6:05 am on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

Based on my own data and some very unscientific polling of friends I am concluding that everybody's getting sick of AdSense ads. They are reaching the point of saturation. Almost every site now has them. The novelty is long gone, gone are even the days of paying attention to them. Because in 90% of cases the ads' targeting is not perfect, most people seem to have concluded they are not worth looking at.

I think no matter what kind of tricks we invent here (positioning, formats, corners, colors, etc) the overall long-term trend is down. We're flogging a horse that may not be dying, but is REALLY tired.

That doesn't mean there's no room of AdSense on our sites. But I believe it's not wise to fill too much of our real estate with them. I think what EFV did was very smart. CPM above the fold, AdSense below the fold for those who scrolled down (and presumably didn't find the information they wanted). Those clicks are probably going to be better, anyways since they are going to be from people who were consciously looking for more information.

Google should also recognize this and start a separate "display ad" division helping people sell CPM, above the fold. Perhaps, not based on context, but rather on audience/traffic information. It will be a perfect complement to today's AdSense.

bbd2000

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 7:04 am on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

On my little network of sites, traffic has remained fairly constant for the last couple of months.

Beginning in late January, I saw a decrease in CTR and a resulting decrease in eCPM across my sites. This all began about the same time that the news was full of sub-prime mortgage news and news about the upcoming recession. People just stopped clicking on ads of any types. They stopped clicking adsense, ebay links, amazon and a few other affiliates I use. It was almost like the news told people to stop spending money because hard times were coming and the masses immediately stopped spending money. Simply Amazing!
The average value of each click has remained fairly constant for my sites so I donít think it is any type of smart pricing. Furthermore, smart pricing would not explain the drop in clicks from my other advertising partners.

Atomic,
I received a burst of traffic from one of those social sites last week also. There were too many people looking at one page for a few seconds and moving on. It was junk traffic and they can keep it. I have not actively sought that type of traffic and now I donít think I will try. eCPM and the average value of a click dropped sharply on that day and the day after. I think Google must be looking at the source of traffic before it determines payouts per click.

For the record, none of my sites are related to mortgages or finance. They are all hobby related.

Atomic

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 9:40 am on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

I received a burst of traffic from one of those social sites last week also. There were too many people looking at one page for a few seconds and moving on. It was junk traffic and they can keep it. I have not actively sought that type of traffic and now I donít think I will try. eCPM and the average value of a click dropped sharply on that day and the day after. I think Google must be looking at the source of traffic before it determines payouts per click.

I am with you 100% on this. At least now I am better prepared for this variety of traffic in the future.

For the record, none of my sites are related to mortgages or finance. They are all hobby related.

You know, it's not impossible for a site to be related to mortgage and finance AND be hobby related.

[edited by: Atomic at 9:40 am (utc) on Feb. 17, 2008]

martinibuster

WebmasterWorld Administrator martinibuster us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 9:58 am on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

>>>I think Google must be looking at the source of traffic before it determines payouts per click.

Yes. The search query a visitor rides on into your site with (imo) influences the ads they see. Geographic location of site visitor influences the ads they see, too.

...eCPM and the average value of a click dropped sharply...

Are you saying that at the end of the day you made less than the one or two month average for that particular day (for instance, if it was a Friday, it was lower than all fridays for the past 30,60, and 90 days)?

Or are you saying the final amount was close to the average for that day but the eCPMs were lower?

bbd2000

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 4:00 pm on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

martinibuster,

I didnít research the same day (such as Friday) for the last couple of months. So I went back and took a look.

Yes, the average value of a click dropped significantly when I received the burst of traffic compared to the average value on the same day for an extended period.

If the average value of a click had remained constant and it was just a drop in eCPM, I wouldnít have cared. That would have just been a temporary effect due to the large increase in traffic. No big deal. However, when the value of the clicks dropped and stayed down for at least two days I became concerned. I donít know how Google decides how much a click on a particular site is worth, but if the quality of the traffic is a determinate and I continue to receive junk traffic it may have a direct effect on my long term earnings.

I guess it all goes back to the quality verses quantity argument.

I have learned the hard way that quality content beats quantity every time. I guess the same is true with traffic. Quality traffic (I assume from search engines) will bring better income that a large quantity of junk traffic from social media sites.

I have no proof of this and this was hopefully a onetime event for me. I, and I assume other webmasters, would be very interested in others experience with huge and temporary increases in traffic. Specifically, what was the long term effect on income?

Roseb44170

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 6:32 pm on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

Can't say that I can agree with the original post. My adsense numbers are increasing monthly.

However one thing does come to mind and that is February is the shortest month - less days in the month

martinibuster

WebmasterWorld Administrator martinibuster us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 7:01 pm on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

>>>Yes, the average value of a click dropped significantly...

Well, what I was getting at was the total earnings, sorry. The total earnings for the day was down significantly or was it within the average swing?

bbd2000

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 8:29 pm on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

Total earnings for the day were about a third of average. The next day, earnings were about half of normal. The third day was within the average range for that site.

The average range for the site is about 25%. Meaning that earning for any particular day are within 25% of the long term earnings. For example if the long term daily average is $1.00, daily income will come in between .75 and 1.25 the vast majority of the time. Long term earnings have very rarely seen the wide swing it saw after the burst in traffic.

I suppose it is statically possible that it was just a bad couple of days. But I donít get that feeling. I really think it was the result of the low quality traffic. I really donít have a way to test it. However, if I get another surge in traffic with the same results I will be convinced.

greatstart

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 9:14 pm on Feb 17, 2008 (gmt 0)

The advantage of February 2008 vs. February 2007 is one extra day (leap year). That alone will only equate to a gain of 3.5% or so. For many, that won't be a big deal.

martinibuster

WebmasterWorld Administrator martinibuster us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 2:14 am on Feb 18, 2008 (gmt 0)

bbd2000 thanks for sharing. That's useful information.

zett

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 12:27 pm on Feb 18, 2008 (gmt 0)

February 2008: Looking Worse than January?

Not worse. I'd say "as bad as":

Daily revenue -1%
EPC -4%
CTR -5%
CPM -9%

HuskyPup



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 1:27 pm on Feb 18, 2008 (gmt 0)

It was almost like the news told people to stop spending money because hard times were coming and the masses immediately stopped spending money. Simply Amazing!

This is the perfect storm analogy however, and unfortuately, it simply does not fit in with what others have experienced since many sites were not affected at all.

My sites are slowly returning towards the daily earnings' values of October's pre-Glitch and they certainly would have achieved that IF the CTR were the same.

jbayabas

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 3:07 pm on Feb 23, 2008 (gmt 0)


System: The following 4 messages were spliced on to this thread from: http://www.webmasterworld.com/google_adsense/3582824.htm [webmasterworld.com] by martinibuster - 8:05 am on Feb. 23, 2008 (utc -8)


Google probably changed something in their adsense pricing. For the first time in years, I see a big deep in earning the last few days. It started on February 19. I had more page views and more clicks but my earning was very low.

Do you see dismal earnings starting February 19 as well?

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 3:21 pm on Feb 23, 2008 (gmt 0)

My average eCPM has been down somewhat since the 18th, mostly because of a slight but noticeable drop in clickthrough rate (possibly the result of replacing leaderboards with skyscrapers in the right margin on a few thousand pages).

EPC remains strong--in fact, yesterday's EPC was the highest in recent memory--so I don't think AdSense pricing is a factor.

Also, February 1-22, 2008 EPC and eCPM are running well ahead of the same time period last year.

FromRocky

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 3:52 pm on Feb 23, 2008 (gmt 0)

... and the next month will be lower in eanings. Wait and See.

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 3:59 pm on Feb 23, 2008 (gmt 0)

... and the next month will be lower in eanings. Wait and See.

It'll be lower for some and higher for others, just like every other month.

Freedom

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 4:58 pm on Feb 23, 2008 (gmt 0)

December was awful as companies had weened out their annual advertising budgets.

January was good. A nice comeback, advertiser spending dollars up.

February is GREAT. Advertisers are really pouring a lot of money into this field. I'm getting more personal ad requests and the eCPM is up by 60-70 percent.

I hope it holds but I can tell you after 4.5 years in this, it's always a roller coaster ride. Up and down. Up and down. I'm just glad I'm in a growth field, recession or not.

indias next no1

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3576567 posted 1:57 am on Feb 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

my ecpm was down from jan 10th and after that nearly 30 % down in ecpm and CTR is also 30 % down, it comes to normal on feb 10th and again down from 19th. i like to know whether the less CTR means less Ecpm ?

This 57 message thread spans 2 pages: 57 ( [1] 2 > >
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