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This 34 message thread spans 2 pages: 34 ( [1] 2 > >     
Glitch in Stats?
What the heck.... November 21, 2007
oddsod




msg:3510778
 7:19 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Adsense eCPMs have gone through the roof today. I know, I know, sometimes there's a data dump in the early part of the day. I know, I know, some sites show higher earnings early in the day as that's when they get most valuable country traffic and then it levels out later. But I'm getting this on lots of sites.

I have a background in stats and I have lots of experience with Adsense on multiple accounts (yes, I am within TOS) and yet this increase surprises me (there's just a small increase in CTR).

This almost 100% increase in eCPM is on top of what is already a very healthy double digit average eCPM. More shocking - today's 100% increase comes after several days of Adsense eCPM being more than 20% over last month's average (and outside the usual deviations).

This is not a wind-up post, it's really happening. OK, I'm happy that one account which has never done a $1,000 day is going to cross that rubicon today. And other accounts aren't doing too badly, but it's annoying because I can't explain it except for a big smartpricing adjustment. Make that a "massive" adjustment.

Anyone else seeing this?

 

FourDegreez




msg:3510785
 7:41 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Same thing here, but I figured it was clicks from yesterday getting credited today (I had an increase in traffic yesterday that didn't reflect in yesterday's earnings). Anyway, I'm not counting on it to last!

jhood




msg:3510793
 7:45 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

If you're in the U.S., you are probably benefiting from a spurt of advertising leading up to Black Friday, the day-after-Thanksgiving shopping blow-out. I am seeing the same results, btw, just as in years past.

oddsod




msg:3510833
 8:33 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

>>you are probably benefiting from a spurt of advertising leading up to Black Friday
Nope, that doesn't explain it.

dirkji




msg:3510847
 8:50 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Same here, but while CTR and eCPM are about double of what they normaly are, my impressions are about 1/2 of what they normaly are.

casua




msg:3510852
 8:54 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

This almost 100% increase in eCPM is on top of what is already a very healthy double digit average eCPM.

I can confirm that. Actually I see the highest eCPM in almost two years. It's 2.5 times higher than the average. I bet it won't remain that high for too long though. Google is good at making big sustained falls happen, rather than big sustained rises (at least for publishers it seems)...

EDIT: I just noticed that eCPM is up because CTR is up. I'm not sure why as I haven't made any major changes. Impression count looks correct.

[edited by: casua at 9:04 pm (utc) on Nov. 21, 2007]

nmjudy




msg:3510857
 8:59 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I'm showing that the reported page impressions are only 60% of actual (compared to 3rd party live page stats). The eCPM and CTR are based on page impressions. One of the bean counters broke - or is behind making the other numbers appear to be inflated.

[edited by: nmjudy at 9:00 pm (utc) on Nov. 21, 2007]

potentialgeek




msg:3510859
 9:00 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Maybe this is a good glitch to make up for the bad one last month. Surely Thanksgiving Day-related shopping isn't this crazy?! I don't recall anything like this last year at this time.

p/g

P.S. You haven't technically been paid yet ("Adsense, you are paying me too much!")

zjacob




msg:3510861
 9:02 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Yes, seeing the same figures too.

I hope this is the "new Adsense" so that we indeed can start complaining "Awww, Adsense, you are paying me too much!" :)

If they indeed have had a "glitch" (I was not one of those who believed they did, rather it seems they are managing their cost side to meet set overall targets), this could be a start of a gradual click dump of all the clicks that were not recorded after mid-October.

dirkji




msg:3510862
 9:04 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

That would be good, Zjacob, don't count on it though.

ecmedia




msg:3510876
 9:09 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I have identified the problem to lower number of page/ad impressions being captured leading to a higher CPM.

For our company while the impressions being reported are low (yes, we are accounting for the fact that hardly any one who has a life is on the computer and is most likely headed to meet family) but revenue is as expected prior to a long weekend.

casua




msg:3510878
 9:11 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

(yes, we are accounting for the fact that hardly any one who has a life is on the computer and is most likely headed to meet family)

You mean, there where you live? You don't think that here in Europe we have (and people in Asia and other parts of the world have) the same holidays as you in the US, do you? I never cease to be amazed how people in the US believe that the US = the entire world. 700 million people live in Europe (300 million live in the US).

grigoroo




msg:3510892
 9:20 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I'm seeing it too, but the impressions seem to be delayed so maybe it's just the early day high extended a little. It's encouraging to hear so many people having a positive day together. This is too abrupt for it to be a seasonal thing, and the European coincidence eliminates Turkey Day as a factor. I hope it continues.

HuskyPup




msg:3510901
 9:27 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I reported very low metrics earlier on today and now they've recovered to what I would consider pre-Glitch "my normal averages".

Just for once this month AdSense please let it continue then I can afford to go out for a beer:-)

Scurramunga




msg:3510911
 9:37 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

...while CTR and eCPM are about double of what they normaly are, my impressions are about 1/2 of what they normaly are

Strangely, I am seeing the same thing.

frakilk




msg:3510912
 9:37 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

It's a lag in the impressions data but earnings are a bit higher than usual too.

koan




msg:3510931
 9:59 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Same here, but while CTR and eCPM are about double of what they normaly are, my impressions are about 1/2 of what they normaly are.

This is also what I get, stats look good in terms of performance, but the total impressions is very low so the overall earnings aren't very good. Great CTR and eCPM though.

europeforvisitors




msg:3510945
 10:08 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

My eCPM is running about 30% higher than usual, but impressions appear to be running behind clicks and earnings. Also, it's only 2 p.m. Google time, so I figure that reality will catch up with the stats by the time midnight rolls around.

[edited by: jatar_k at 11:02 pm (utc) on Nov. 21, 2007]

OnlyToday




msg:3510958
 10:23 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I too am seeing an astonishingly high CTR and eCPM, and these wild swings should convince anyone who has watched these stats closely for several years that this can't possibly be a result of natural fluctuations.

Aggregate surfing and clicking habits don't just change overnight, these have to originate within AdSense as many of us have been saying all along.

I never cease to be amazed how people in the US believe that the US = the entire world.

Even though I intentionally include things of interest to the entire English and Spanish speaking world, 60% of my traffic still comes from the US. I will admit though that we in the US often pay very little mind to the rest of the world and that this does understandably annoy them.

europeforvisitors




msg:3511027
 11:47 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I too am seeing an astonishingly high CTR and eCPM, and these wild swings should convince anyone who has watched these stats closely for several years that this can't possibly be a result of natural fluctuations.

It's always risky to put too much faith in real-time AdSense statistics. Impressions, clicks, and earnings numbers aren't always in synch. (FWIW, my artificially high eCPM for today is already beginning to subside, and I expect it to drop further when all the returns are in.)

Scurramunga




msg:3511055
 12:37 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

I never cease to be amazed how people in the US believe that the US = the entire world.

So true.

However when it comes to Google traffic and Google Adsense within my niche, the US does account for the greater part of the activity. I suspect this may be the case for many other publishers also.

dibbern2




msg:3511056
 12:37 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

today's 100% increase comes after several days of Adsense eCPM being more than 20% over last month's average (and outside the usual deviations).

Its been like that for about a week.

koan




msg:3511086
 1:25 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

Just for once this month AdSense please let it continue then I can afford to go out for a beer

Maybe they're using the "good cop / bad cop" routine on you? A few weeks of bad cops, then just when you're about leave, they bring in the good cop ;)

Fuzzyfish1000




msg:3511097
 1:43 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

Does everyone seeing this affect have mostly US traffic (even if you're not a US resident)? Oddly, I didn't see the dramatic fall that many spoke of in October, and I haven't seen any wild rise either. My traffic is 90% UK, and I earn anything betweeen $300 and $600 per day, depending on the proportion of site-targetted ads.

jhood




msg:3511103
 2:02 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

>>you are probably benefiting from a spurt of advertising leading up to Black Friday

Nope, that doesn't explain it.

Nothing personal, but how do you know it doesn't explain it? It seems no one in this forum wants to look at what is going on outside, in the so-called real world. There are holidays, recessions, disasters and so forth, and all have the potential to affect traffic, ad budgets, click-throughs, etc.

Time after time I see AdSense trends that are mirrored on other ad networks, yet in this forum the discussions are always centered around Google-based conspiracies, as though the universe consisted entirely of just two twinned planets -- AdWords and AdSense.

As for the assertion that it is American imperialism to note the effect of U.S. holidays, this is also a bit off-base. Yes, Europe is more populous than the U.S. but it is not a single nation. When California sneezes, New York catches cold. You get 300 million people preparing for and then going on a holiday and it has an effect on the advertising market no matter where you are.

A sociological note: Thanksgiving has become the biggest U.S. holiday in terms of travel. As the Beatles might have put it, it's bigger than Jesus. Everybody goes somewhere and is effectively offline for the better part of a week.

And now it is 9 p.m. in NY, 6 p.m. in California, meaning that just about everyone in the U.S. is away from the office til Monday, I will take an astonishing leap of faith and proclaim that traffic, CTR and EPC will fall for the next four days. Others may choose to think that Google has upped its share of the take, but I would suggest that is a view best described as theological rather than rational.

HuskyPup




msg:3511137
 3:06 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

jhood

You obviously took an immense amount of time to consider to express your feelings however, unless I am missing something which is easily possible, you do not seem to have grasped the fact that, in absolute reality the USA is not the biggest Internet/traffic/financial market!

The WebmasterWorld "world" exists here as an English language forum, I know of many Indian and Chinese forums that make WebmasterWorld look miniscule!

I just "know" you're trying to wind-up people like me for a good US holiday discussion:-))..and unfortunately for you I am UK based and I have to go to the Middle East in the morning for a potentially very fruititious exhibition.

Hey after all, they've got loadsa petrodollars now:-))

europeforvisitors




msg:3511172
 4:02 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

Hey after all, they've got loadsa petrodollars now:-))

Which may soon be petroeuros if the dollar continues its fall.

OnlyToday




msg:3511233
 7:56 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

...yet in this forum the discussions are always centered around Google-based conspiracies, as though the universe consisted entirely of just two twinned planets -- AdWords and AdSense.

Wrong. This is an AdSense forum and the recent AdSense gyrations are being compared to earlier AdSense stability for the most part. If you are seeing something else you are not reading this forum carefully or objectively.

No one has claimed a Google conspiracy. A conspiracy must have an illegal or illicit component, and secrecy alone does not constitute a conspiracy. If Google is choosing to take a greater portion of the revenue it is not a conspiracy, it is just policy.

The ONLY people I hear mention "conspiracy" are those who are trying to discredit this discussion by portraying it as a conspiracy theory. It is not, and by calling it so you are misusing "conspiracy" and slandering the legitimate discussion participants.

If you think the gyrations are caused purely by ordinary market fluctuations you haven't been affected or you are ignoring important data points.

My stats for Wednesday finally evened out to a pre-glitch norm. But today's unusual beginning is worthy of note because it is an example of a greater instability than has yet experienced.

[edited by: OnlyToday at 8:11 am (utc) on Nov. 22, 2007]

dirkji




msg:3511241
 8:23 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

The crazy stats from yesterday evened themselves out, my impressions are extremely low though (-15%).

oddsod




msg:3511248
 8:36 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

Nothing personal, but how do you know it doesn't explain it? It seems no one in this forum wants to look at what is going on outside, in the so-called real world.

How do I know? Does that matter? Did I have to explain to you that I was seeing the effect on sites that get almost zero US traffic? Did I have explain that some US-only sites aren't seeing this? Did I have to explain that the "real world", as some people have pointed out already, includes countries other than the US? ;)

This 34 message thread spans 2 pages: 34 ( [1] 2 > >
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