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This 110 message thread spans 4 pages: 110 ( [1] 2 3 4 > >     
September 2007 Earnings Thread: Imps Up, CTR, eCPM, EPC Earnings Down
I hope this trend does not continue!
HuskyPup




msg:3454838
 1:13 pm on Sep 19, 2007 (gmt 0)

Further to the posts regarding AdSense outtages, AdSense log-in unavailable or extremely slow and, quite simply for some of us, ads not appearing at all, I have just analysed Sept 14-18 compared to Sept 1-13:

AdSense Page Impressions: +7.2%
Daily click average: The same
CTR: -8.95%
eCPM: -21.72%
EPC: -13.97%

Is anyone else who's been having problems seeing similar metrics?

In the UK I am still experiencing slow log-ins and very, very tardy stat updates.

 

netmeg




msg:3454940
 2:25 pm on Sep 19, 2007 (gmt 0)

I've seen some very spotty stats since the end of last week, and had no end of troubles logging in (and also lost all my link units for a while) Everything seems back to normal and then some today, though.

Go60Guy




msg:3454997
 3:23 pm on Sep 19, 2007 (gmt 0)

Well, yesterday page impressions and clicks went through the roof for me. Best day ever. Probably a click dump.

Today so far, impressions are consistent with yesterday, but CTR and eCPM are abysmal. I've been seeing this kind of absense of consistency lately. Wide fluctuations.

andrewshim




msg:3455395
 10:08 pm on Sep 19, 2007 (gmt 0)

Yes. HuskyPup. Me 2.

Skeptic




msg:3455530
 1:14 am on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

Me 3.

Rufal




msg:3456080
 3:30 pm on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

Hi Huskypup,

I have been seeing the same trend. Been forming an ulcer trying to find out the problem (5mil montly pageviews, so Im not used to big fluxuations).

Since the beginning of Sept. I have seen 25% Pageview/visit growth (due to a very new faster server) and a whopping 35% income drop.

I almost get the feeling that my site had an income cap that triggered something when I broke it.

The Contractor




msg:3456142
 4:07 pm on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

Your stats merely state you have more visitors that are NOT clicking on ads. Lower CTR + more impressions drive ECPM down since you have the same amount of clicks with higher traffic. As far as the drop in revenue...we all know how that goes up/down.

HuskyPup




msg:3456163
 4:23 pm on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

Your stats merely state you have more visitors that are NOT clicking on ads.

And now for the next blindingly obvious statement!

Perhaps you know my sites better than I do or when I can see AdSense is not performing correctly?

I plainly stated the following:

Is anyone else who's been having problems seeing similar metrics?

How clear do you require a question to be?

zjacob




msg:3456265
 5:56 pm on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

Yes, lately there seems to have been one or two days when the results have been so much outside the normal Adsense data range, also called "outliers", that they are statistically very unlikely.

What's fishy about these outliers is that, adjusted to unique visitor counts, all the outliers have been to the downside, which would suggest that there has been trouble with Adsense on Google's side.

Go60Guy




msg:3456299
 6:27 pm on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

Today, numbers are fluctuating well to the upside for me after a terrible day yesterday. Things simply are not in keeping with past day to day consistency.

The Contractor




msg:3456313
 6:47 pm on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

How clear do you require a question to be?

Read your title for this thread and relax...

Is anyone else who's been having problems seeing similar metrics?

I'm sure there are 1000's with the problem and 1000's without the problem.

Not sure what the thread was supposed to be about...guess just another "my AdSense income is down..." threads.

Rufal




msg:3456550
 10:26 pm on Sep 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

Well,

When I read HuskyPups post, I did not take it as another "earning drops". But besides that.

I have seen a clear indicator (best seen as a graph over 40 days) that with increase in clicks my total earnings have dropped.
This is not 4-7 days, or a single event where earnings drop but everything else stays the same. (which indicates a market/advertiser low) ..

But a clear indication that with increased pageviews and clicks, the earnings have dropped in direct correlation. And the worst thing is I have no idea why, and can't start to fix it since I do not know the problem (or if there is a problem).

Since I only run this single website, I cannot compare to other statistics and must read forums like this one for any guiding light.
.

My previous posts, was that I have seen revenues increase with increased clicks/pageviews. But it seems that 30+ days ago, I hit some roof that made my adsense revenue drop with every increase in click rate or pageviews.

walrus




msg:3456627
 12:22 am on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

which indicates a market/advertiser low

I bet that is the answer. I thought it was typical to see an advertiser lull this time of year, at least for some niches. So it could be that made worse by the weak US dollar.

andrewshim




msg:3456643
 1:00 am on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

hmmm walrus... now that you mentioned it, I remember one thread about a year back where we talked about the September lull. (or was it some other month).

Scurramunga




msg:3456646
 1:11 am on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Not sure what the thread was supposed to be about...guess just another "my AdSense income is down..." threads

Contractor,
I had interpreted it pretty much the same way as you did, although the OP did mention that average EPC was lower.

[edited by: Scurramunga at 1:14 am (utc) on Sep. 21, 2007]

security56




msg:3456703
 3:15 am on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

:) come on guys lets not fight over this the truth is the for some people adsense is doing badly, and is not your regular my earnign type of thread, the latest thread about adsense earnings being down are from people who have being on adsense for a while such as me, and I have gotten use to adsense ups and downs, but right now adsense is not normal at list to some of us, because I am too experience very unusual lows.

PS: Is great the some of you are not having this issue, but if you don't have something to contribute besides putting people down for making a so call adsense earning downs, which in this case I'm sure it has to be more then the usual adsense down then go to another thead and leave these one alone ;)

tim222




msg:3456722
 4:08 am on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I've noticed higher than normal scape-bot activitiy lately. Yeserday there were two that I noticed, and I don't really go looking for them. But it's pretty obvious when I'm scanning the list of page views and I see the same IP cycling through dozens of pages at a rate of 3 or 4 pages per second. I checked both IP's and they are offshore.

Anyway, that could cause higher page impressions and a lower CTR/eCPM if the total number of pages in your site is a significant percentage of the number of page views you get in a day.

zett




msg:3456796
 7:47 am on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

There was a time this year, January through March, when Adsense eCPM was almost predictable. One of the metrics I am tracking is the variance coefficient, i.e. the degree of consistency in a given data set. It was clearly below 30% (23% to 26%). Then, beginning in April, it became more and more unpredictable: 34% - 34% - 33% - 28% - 42% - 43%. Yes, that's a whopping 43% for September so far. Unpredictable. Random. Erratic.

I hear you ask: "How about your traffic?" - Yep. The variance coefficient for the traffic (i.e. ads displayed) has been below 30% forever. Most of the time it stays around the 20% mark.

"And the clicks?" - One would expect this value to be the most inconsistent one, because it solely depends on the users. But it is not. Since January 2007 this value was also clearly below the 30% mark.

As Adsense is giving us so little data, it is difficult to correctly interpret this data. However, I'd argue that all the values should be predictable within the same range. IF there was a higher degree of unpredictability or inconsistency, then I'd put my money on traffic and clicks - these depend on the users who are often unpredictable per se. But this is not the case, I see revenue and eCPM being the most unpredictable/inconsistent values.

In case you are wondering about variance analysis: throw a single dice 100 times and count the occurence of each result...

1 = 17x
2 = 19x
3 = 16x
4 = 10x
5 = 22x
6 = 16x

Now, in an ideal world, each result should appear 16 or 17 times (or, in fact, 16.67 times). But it does not. Rarely, almost never. The data is inconsistent, erratic, it seems to be random. :-) The set above has a variance coefficent of 21.8% -- clearly the counts for 4 and 5 are sticking out upon inspection.

I ran several tests on dice, and the typical variance coefficient is between 10% and 30%. You may find some sets that are below 10%, and some sets that are above 30%, but the majority of sets fall into this area, 10% to 30%.

Of course, the value decreases as you roll the dice more often, say, 1000 times, further smoothing out the difference between each count.

Thus, I just conclude that Adsense revenue can not be predicted. It is as random as throwing a dice 100 times, recently even more so.

Standard Disclaimer: Any values and experiences are for me and my sites only. I know that I can leave Adsense at any time, and that I should be happy to be part of such a great program. I know that there may be others who are doing great and who do not understand why someone might complain at all.

MikeNoLastName




msg:3456844
 10:05 am on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Well, for one I can attest that there have been bizarre fluctuations ALL downward ever since March. After nearly 3 years of data, we have seen a STEADY drop of over 80% in PPC and earnings over the last 6 months, despite constant attention and optimizing. I would consider that statistically significant, considering our monthly Adsense PAGE impressions are well in excess of 1/2 million. I personally have confirmed at least 3 significant bugs in Adsense reporting which have been reported and utlimately met with "yeah your right" or "sorry we cannot divulge additional info" and due to their nature could definitely lead to algorithm applied penalties (i.e. sudden changes or lower than expected performance stats because of implementing "new" features) when you have done absolutely nothing wrong or even different. We are of the opinion that Adsense is SERIOUSLY broken and are prepared to take the last ads off any day now (we switched over a majority of them a couple months ago.)

glitterball




msg:3457079
 1:16 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I'm seeing a big drop today on one Adsense account that I manage (which covers a broad range of sites), but not on another (which is just one site).

The biggest fluctuation that I have seen was last Saturday (15th of September). On that day, eCPM was down 50% and CTR down by 35% across all sites on both accounts.
I'm not sure if anything is wrong today, but something definitely went wrong last Saturday.

HuskyPup




msg:3457108
 1:21 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

guess just another "my AdSense income is down..." threads.

Absolutely not, read my post:

Further to the posts regarding AdSense outtages, AdSense log-in unavailable or extremely slow and, quite simply for some of us, ads not appearing at all, I have just analysed Sept 14-18 compared to Sept 1-13:

I am referring specifically to those AdSensers who have been experiencing the above and wondered how their metrics had been affected in comparison to my own and if they were seeing similar, that's all.

If all my metrics are down it is inevitable that earnings will be down.

As an side yesterday, Thursday, was very, very strange for some of my sites in comparison to their averages, in fact my best performing site had a Sunday with page impressions and clicks down 25% whereas my second best earning site had a completely normal day.

My own logs for both sites indicate a completely "normal" day which still leads me to believe there is something not working correctly for some of us after the last unannounced "maintenance" Saturday.

I just wish they would either get it reparied quickly or revert to the previous "settings" and test the darned thing thoroughly before letting new stuff loose on us all:-)

zett




msg:3457237
 3:11 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

HuskyPup,

just out of curiosity, I looked at the same metrics:

Analysed Sept 14-18 compared to Sept 1-13

AdSense Page Impressions: The same
Daily click average: -5%
CTR: -5%
eCPM: -15%
EPC: -11%

Not as extreme as in your case, but in the same league.

europeforvisitors




msg:3457346
 4:56 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

I haven't noticed anything unusual. I've seen a gradual decline in EPC and eCPM this month, but that's to be expected now that the high season for my topic (leisure travel) is over.

frakilk




msg:3457356
 5:05 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

My guess is that there may be just a general lull among advertisers at present. I have seen my impression data acting a bit funky though so it's possible that AdSense has a bit of a tummy ache at present.

dibbern2




msg:3457486
 7:24 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Not to argue with the OP question, but I'm one of those whose metrics have improved during September. Its pretty much up for CTR and eCPM, so earnings are better. (I won't consider impressions, since that's tied to new content I've added and changes in G serps.)

Just wanted to weigh in from the other side of things. I could be just an aberrant case in universal erosion of AS performance.

rollinj




msg:3457544
 8:24 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Earlier this month I was SO excited to notice a $140 day on my adsense account... it was about a 30 dollar jump over my average of $110/day for the past few weeks...

Little did I know.. that after going to bed - my adsense earnings would be TAKEN AWAY from my account!

I'm a person of numbers and remember firmly seeing 138+ earnings in my adsense account - only to realize it had been "adjusted" to about 94 the next day!

Anyone else notice similar supposed "click fraud" cleanups?!

farmboy




msg:3457567
 9:09 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

FWIW, I noticed my earnings were down significantly on one of my sites over the past two days and took a look at a few of the pages. For some reason, the targeting is terrible all of a sudden - this is a site that has had AdSense on it since 2003.

There are some really weird ads showing.

FarmBoy

jeffgroovy




msg:3457595
 9:44 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

At least one of these threads per month is normal. So if you go back and read through all the eCPM down threads over the last year or three you can get a better historical grip on the situation. That being said when I see the dollar falling against all the other currencies I see that if anything as a reason for eCPM and EPC to to go up due to the fact that receiving a valid click as an advertiser has the same value while the dollar falls against it.

Husky pup, your CTR dropped by a percentage that exceeds my total CTR account wide :) I've seen that happen in the past where I've had a particular site that had phenomenal CTR and without changing anything the CTR drops down to a "normal" under 10% type number and stays there indefinitely. Unless you made major layout changes or changed the way your site receives traffic I would say is another way to kick invalid clicks right out of the equation therefore causing your CTR to drop overnight. Take this with a 25 pound bag of salt, but considering your impressions are up by a similar percentage that your CTR is down, that says to me that your new traffic isn't clicking on the ads because it's less relevant, and due to that you are also getting your overall eCPM pushed down by a greater magnitude (a form of smart pricing a site?) Maybe less relevant ads like farmboy is seeing? That's always a great CTR killer.

I looked at my stats for the month and found that September 1st through the 13th eCPM was higher then the 14th through the 20th and ctr was higher during the 14th through the 20th period then the 1st through the 13th period....no concerns here. Normal fluctuations in my mind.

IanCP




msg:3457639
 10:40 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

FWIW, I noticed my earnings were down significantly on one of my sites over the past two days and took a look at a few of the pages. For some reason, the targeting is terrible all of a sudden - this is a site that has had AdSense on it since 2003.
There are some really weird ads showing.

Ah! then I'm not the only one with this same experience. I was thinking I was becoming paranoid.

walrus




msg:3457645
 10:52 pm on Sep 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

and took a look at a few of the pages

I'd do that too but the increased impressions might lower the EPC.

But seriously, thats a good point, bad targetting has happened to me a few times so I took a look and they seem ok right now. I usually never think of that when earnings are down.

This 110 message thread spans 4 pages: 110 ( [1] 2 3 4 > >
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