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This 95 message thread spans 4 pages: 95 ( [1] 2 3 4 > >     
Google AdSense: eCPM Trends August 2007
potentialgeek




msg:3411331
 11:02 am on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Except for one other day in two years. Appears to be a trend, not a one-day anomaly. Checked the seaonal averages from a year ago.

The EPC drop started near the end of last month; thought it could be end-of-month budget issues, but alas, apparently not. No immediate pick up in the first days of the new month.

Saw something of an upswing after Arbit Crackdown 1.0; in fact, about a 25% increase in EPC. That continued until now, when it seems to be back to normal, if not lower.

Perhaps we're all ready for a new round of tighter smart pricing?!

Oh well, I'm off to read my August Adsense Optimization Email. If anything can crank up the EPC, that must be it! :/

p/g

 

zett




msg:3411332
 11:06 am on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Same here. Exactly the same. I obeyed to their April tip now ("you may be filtering too many advertisers" or something) and cleaned out the filter. In other words: Let the freak show begin!

dirkji




msg:3411465
 2:20 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Same here and I'm getting fed up with it. The last couple of months my cpc was very low with an all time low yesterday. There's something going and I don't like it. Some will say it's the end/beginning of the month and advertiser's budgets are running out, but looking at my Adsense stats of the last couple of years, I never experienced a CPC decline at the end of a month.

Targetting is way off sometimes and there are plenty of MFA sites. I think Google is low on ad inventory.

europeforvisitors




msg:3411516
 3:03 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Targetting is way off sometimes and there are plenty of MFA sites. I think Google is low on ad inventory.

Or maybe Google is too high on publisher inventory, at least in some sectors. As someone here once asked, how many AdSense publishers have decreased their ad inventory (as opposed to adding more pages) since the network began?

zett




msg:3411585
 3:59 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Europe,

I have been decresing my ad inventory over time. Briefly after I started with Adsense, 2+ years ago, I put more ad blocks on my pages. The maximum "Ads per Page" average was 1.3 at that time (many pages carried two adblocks). Today it's 1.01 (i.e. here and there are two adblocks, but 99% of the pages carry just one adblock).

OK, I admit that I have added quality content over time, but not in a spammy fashion. It's still very demanded, unique content. Oh yes, my visitors would love me cranking out more pages. So I feel that I have been hit hard by whatever has happened recently.

I could understand some market issues IF THESE HAPPENED GRADUALLY. But what I am seeing right now is a sudden massive slump. Minus 27% (eCPM) compared to last week is not something that can be easily explained by "too many publishers". Am I suddenly seeing 27% more quality publishers in my niche? No. Have I seen a sudden drop-out of (quality) advertisers? No. The same faces all over the place.

But I do see an uncontrollable mob of MFAs and other scam artists that exploit every imaginable URL under the sun. And Google is actively LOOKING AWAY from this. No talking of quality, no talking of usability, no talking of user experience. THEY DO NOT CARE.

If I were an investor in GOOG, I would be worried. Very worried. Google have been beaten last earnings call for a weak content network performance. If they can't get this MFA thing under control, the content network will be dropped like a hot potatoe. And with it Google's outlook for stellar revenues and healthy profits. After all, where shall the growth in Google come from?

The silence from Google is scary. Either they are all too busy buying expensive villas in Mountain View, or they think they are SuperGoog, an undestroyable superhero.

In short: I think this Adsense is completely out of control.

Huntster




msg:3411591
 4:03 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Yeah. This sucks.

level80




msg:3411605
 4:12 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

It might just be advertisers getting smart - checking their conversion rates of clicks to sales and realising they're better off spending their budgets on the search rather than content network where their ads are more likely to be better targetted and clicked on.

europeforvisitors




msg:3411626
 4:26 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

It might just be advertisers getting smart - checking their conversion rates of clicks to sales and realising they're better off spending their budgets on the search rather than content network where their ads are more likely to be better targetted and clicked on.

That may be true in some cases, but Google's earnings reports don't indicate a desertion by non-search advertisers. 2Q 2007 "partner sites generated revenues" were identical with those in the first quarter and were up 36% over the same quarter last year.

It's possible that inventory is spread thin in certain sectors; it's equally possible that recent AdWords changes such as Placement Reports and the now-unlimited Exclusion Tool are diverting ads from some publishers' sites. It's even possible that this summer's heat wave in some parts of the world has sent more mom-and-pop advertisers to the beach, where they're spending money on Mai Tais or bottled water instead of on content-network clicks. There's no way of knowing. The only thing we do know is that some publishers are happy and others aren't--as usual.

dirkji




msg:3411653
 4:49 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

The point is that these CPC fallbacks are very sudden and multiple publishers report them starting at the same day, like yesterday. That's a little strange, no?

It would be nice if AdsenseAdvisor could make a comment in this thread.

radix




msg:3411664
 4:57 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

zett, following your arguments:
Am I suddenly seeing 27% more quality publishers in my niche? No. Have I seen a sudden drop-out of (quality) advertisers? No. The same faces all over the place.

it's probably also unlikely that a massive 27% increase of MFAs happened overnight?

Genuine1




msg:3411677
 5:02 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

As always some go up some go down. It happens in the search results as well as adsense. It could be any number of things as its an auction based system. Could be that your best advertisers saw the referal reports and filtered your sites for whatever reason they choose. Then all thats left is arb sites. Personally my ecpm is up by 50 percent over a 5 year average by a large amount starting june and getting better as time goes on. And its nothing I did because my sites are unchanged for about ten tears or so.

europeforvisitors




msg:3411712
 5:18 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

The point is that these CPC fallbacks are very sudden and multiple publishers report them starting at the same day, like yesterday. That's a little strange, no?

I don't see why. It might be strange if hordes of publishers were reporting CPC or eCPM drops across the board, but that isn't happening.

For all know, a new smart-pricing formula might have been kicked in, or the compensation algorithm may be distributing revenue in a new way, or a sudden change on the advertiser side may be hurting some publishers while helping others and having no effect on the majority. As Genuine1 suggests, AdSense earnings are like search rankings: sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose.

timwestla




msg:3411728
 5:28 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Yeah, yesterday's eCPM was pretty low for me, as well, but the day before (July 31) was really high. On top of that, even with the low eCPM, total revenue for August 1 was higher than revenue for July 1, and July was the highest month ever.

eCPM goes up, and it goes down. I suppose that's the worst part about AdSense, because when it's down there's this feeling in the back of the mind that makes you wonder if it will keep heading in that direction. I'm glad I don't rely on this income, or else I would have gray hair by now.

The eCPM pattern reminds me of a joke I heard when I was a kid: A man wanted to test the lights on the back of his car, so he asked his friend for help. First he turned on the lights, and asked, "Are the tail lights working?" The friend responded, "Yes they are." Then he hit his brakes and asked if the brake lights were working, and the friend responded, "Yes they are." Next he tried his turn signal and asked, "Is the left blinker working?" To which the friend replied, "It is... It isn't... It is... It isn't... It is... It isn't..."

europeforvisitors




msg:3411747
 5:39 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

LOL. If I remember nothing else about this thread, I'll remember that joke. :-)

coosblues




msg:3411809
 6:35 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

I'm glad I found this thread. Yesterday was dismal despite record visitors and click through rates. Today is not looking well either - the past two months had been stellar. I thought perhaps I was being Spriced, but there's more to this issue after reading the above comments. I'm wondering if the upgrade to 2.0 (which I have not implemented) is a possible cause?

alephh




msg:3411843
 7:11 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

+ CTR dropped a lot today.
+ ClickValue dropped a little bit.
+ Traffic normal.

It would sooo nice to know why this happened - and not have to guess about why adsense "things" happen.

Hobbs




msg:3411858
 7:28 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

It might just be advertisers getting smart..

Is that because of a sudden improvement in the quality of advertiser's drinking water and we are making money we don't deserve off dumb advertisers drinking coke?

Some publishers think highly of their sites and are doing AdSense advertisers a service, some also suffering from the low quality hit and run arb advertisers, smart and dumb is pretty even across both sides of the fence.

FWIW Wed. Aug. 1st started off looking like the worst day in the year, and ended as a pretty good day.
Aug. 2nd is looking the same, starting slow but should pick up.

I think we could be experiencing delayed click dumps perhaps even across days, the reported ads and impressions are on a bigger delay nowadays for sure.

netmeg




msg:3411879
 7:36 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

I think we could be experiencing delayed click dumps perhaps even across days, the reported ads and impressions are on a bigger delay nowadays for sure.

I think you might be right. When I went to bed last night, the day had been one of the lowest in CTR, EPC and eCPM in years. But apparently I got a click dump sometime after midnight, because when I woke up and looked at the stats, yesterday looked a lot better. Today started slow too, but it caught up and then some in the past hour or so.

sailorjwd




msg:3411901
 8:00 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Something has changed with either adsense or adwords.

Saturday & Sunday was the highest CPM in 12 months. Today is lowest in 6 months.

I'm going to the Dr. tomorrow for a neck brace.

europeforvisitors




msg:3411907
 8:01 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

It just goes to show the folly of obsessing about real-time statistics that aren't.

Maybe Google should report traffic and earnings after the day is over and all the numbers are in. (And no, I'm not kidding.)

sonny




msg:3411943
 8:49 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Little bit off, but the first days of the month can be wacky!

June ecpm- $26
July ecpm- $30
Aug ecpm- $23

potentialgeek




msg:3411946
 8:54 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Update...

I tried to isolate some variables, and this is what I discovered...

I looked at the daily stats for the top ten pages on my main site for the last few months. Everything except the home page is about the same, but the home page, which gets the most traffic, was "smartpriced" by a dramatic cut. EPC on it was slashed by 50%!

The ads on the unchanged pages (most popular) have a similar ad format to the home page ad units, so I rule out a hit on a particular format.

Also, the pages with the unchanged earnings are on a similar subject as the home page (sitewide theme), and the home page ads have appeared on all these pages, so I rule out a change on keyword bidding by the advertisers.

The content of the home page, furthermore, hasn't suddenly changed or been changed much in weeks, so I rule out Google giving new value based on different content.

SERPs are basically the same and there has been no surge in traffic that would alarm advertisers or exhaust their budgets. It seems the same old advertisers continue to have ads on the site.

Meanwhile, on another site that does well, daily earnings remain the same.

I don't know that I've ever seen a 50% cut on one home page earnings overnight. That's a pretty big hit on one page.

The site has been up for a few years with a long time for Google to test conversion rates. I understand smart pricing and I had already guessed it wasn't only for an account or even just a website, but the logic of this big change on one page is an intriguing mystery.

p/g

HuskyPup




msg:3411958
 9:02 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

My EPC and eCPM dropped dramatically during June and early July compelling me to write to the AdSense team and I had been here screaming very, very loudly.

Their response was an "intimated" possible lack of advertisers.

Interestingly within a few days everything changed, my EPC and eCPM both jumped and my average EPC is now at levels I have never seen before, I just wish I had the CTR of a year or two ago.

Did my questioning provoke anthing, I have no idea?

What I do know is that, apart from increased EPC etc, my AdSense Page Impressions jumped by 20% meanwhile my logs stayed the same.

Maybe good publishers seeing a reduction in earnings need to query every now and then and possibly the AdSense team find that they've tightened the knobs too much for certain publishers' sites?

One thing I do know for certain is that my advertisers are still more or less all the same!

Genuine1




msg:3411968
 9:06 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

But that does not mean they are paying the same if competition is lower.

drall




msg:3411969
 9:07 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

4 year lows across many of our sites the last couple days. Same advertisers as far as I can tell on most sites but others in our field I converse with say they are running low on inventory.

zett




msg:3411986
 9:21 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

within a few days everything changed, my EPC and eCPM both jumped and my average EPC is now at levels I have never seen before, I just wish I had the CTR of a year or two ago.

Did my questioning provoke anthing, I have no idea?

You may be up to something.

I have long suspected that a positive (or better: any non-negative) interaction of Google staff with your account/site is very very positive for you/your site.

My theory: Google employees surf the web as much (or probably even more) as any other employee of any company on the globe. Now, if Google employees interact more ("above average") with a certain site, then this site might get "promoted".

Many people have reported an increase in revenue/eCPM after interacting with Adsense support. What might have happened is that Adsense support surfed your pages and found you to be "not guilty" (of whatever). Thus no penalty. Thus positive influence. Now, if Google folks like your pages so much that they tell their co-workers about it... BINGO!

(I have some sort of evidence for this theory but can not explain further for obvious reasons.)

HuskyPup




msg:3412024
 9:46 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Now, if Google employees interact more ("above average") with a certain site, then this site might get "promoted".

I would hope that it's something more rational than that.

How about that my sites were accidentally "caught up" in the MFA/Arb clampdowns and my questioning e-mail released my sites from that net?

Some of my less-trafficked sites have seen a 400% increase in average EPC since my correspondence therefore I feel it's more than co-incidence.

Heck, it's worth a try just to see what happens. From my first correspondence to seeing things dramatically change was 3 weeks so don't get your hopes up overnight!

zett




msg:3412026
 9:52 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

I would hope that it's something more rational than that.

I would hope that, too, but looking at the roots of Google ("page rank") I could imagine that they implemented some very simple, very basic voting/rating tool that happens without even known by the majority of staff. Someone from Google surfs (one of) your site(s), and -hey presto!- this site can't be bad at all. Unless they find something and punish you for it...

timwestla




msg:3412029
 9:54 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

I have long suspected that a positive (or better: any non-negative) interaction of Google staff with your account/site is very very positive for you/your site.

I live near Google's office in Santa Monica. If I drop off some chocolate cookies with my URL printed on them in vanilla frosting, do you suppose that might help my eCPM?

:D

Hey AdSenseAdvisor... are you out there? I just wanted to tell you that even though I can't see it, I really like your shirt.

Hobbs




msg:3412031
 9:58 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

moving from uncertainty to fiction, next comes fear followed by anger.

This 95 message thread spans 4 pages: 95 ( [1] 2 3 4 > >
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