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|AdSense EPC Going Into Freefall!|
Since June 8th 2007
I am beginning to wonder whether this has anything to do with the MFA/ARB clampdown?
Since June 8th my EPC has dropped 14.39%, my eCPM by 12.21% and comparing Monday 4th v Monday 11th my earnings were down 24.63% with the same number of clicks.
This is a bit too co-incidental for my way of thinking.
No my trade is not on holiday this is a 12 month of the year business generally with few fluctuations.
Yes there seem to be plenty of quality advertisers however I am now seeing a lot of "directory type" sites in AdLinks and they were never there before and checking through the SERPs advertising they are cropping up in the first few pages.
Certainly something significant is happening so far as my sites are concerned and if I have a few more days of this then I shall remove my AdLinks to see if that stops the rot.
Is anyone else seeing similar.
Small update here. My eCPM was the worst in over 2 years on Monday, June 25, 2007 (0.70). I made more with CPM ads from 2 other companies that were filling maybe 20-40% of my available inventory. While Google may boast about their "targeting" and other nifty, whiz-bang features, plain, old untargeted ads are returning solid revenues while still being underutilized.
I don't even have a handle on when AS paid less than yesterday's stupid figure. At least 2 years.
The number that really has me puzzled is CTR at 1.45%. I average close to 3.5%. That's a pretty alarming drop-off and it's been down most of the month, though not that low. I think the elimination of the arbs and MFAs is taking a real bite out of my earnings, likely because since it's the end of the quarter and G needs to please Wall St., they're keeping a larger percentage, like 90%, rather than the usual 50-60%, Besides, they haven't got enough inventory since kicking some of the arb players.
Google hasn't impressed me with anything they've done, yet the world and Wall Street has made them billionaries. We are living in very strange times indeed.
If there was a good alternative to AdSense I'd jump in a heartbeat. Unforntuately they are still somewhat the only game in town.
I suspect you are in a niche where there is a lack of good paying well targeted advertisers and in your case that leaves no "real" inventory of advertisers with decent bid prices.
Or your content may not be giving good conversions.
I have 15 or so small hobby sites. My income (mid 4 figures monthly) has only increased over the last 4 years by about 20 percent overall. Taken as individual sites some have increased income massively and some now get a few cents per click.
The weaker sites that are dropping in income are the ones that I consider are pretty weak on content or I never finished etc. The best paying sites are the ones where I put my heart and soul into building them with info that could only have come from me and that is unavailable in any book or website other than mine.
As time goes on adsense gets better at rewarding quality pages and better at rewarding sites that convert well for advertisers.
But even if your site is in a million users favorites and you get much free linking and tons of traffic you still cant make money if there are no good advertisers on those subjects.
For what its worth none of my main core sites have ever been updated since I posted them around ten years ago and I never buy traffic.
My average eCPM has been lower since the middle of the month than it was in the first half of June, but not by a significant amount. In the past week, I've had one exceptionally good day, one noticeably worse-than-usual day, and a bunch of okay days.
I really can't see getting euphoric about good days or upset about bad days; in an auction-based system, there will always be ups and downs, and the long-term average is what counts.
BTW, I make a lot more from affiliate commissions than I do from AdSense, but affiliate sales are--if anything--even less predictable than AdSense eCPMs are. The revenue ratio for a good day vs. a bad day in the same week can easily be 4:1 or 5:1. By comparison, AdSense is like income from an annuity.
Interesting comparison for me:
Today last year vs today:
EPC = identical
CTR = down 50%
visitors = down 60%
total revenue = down 80%
Last year this time was the last weeks of the good ol' arbitrage days... fond memories.
ps. website pages = up 30%
|While Google may boast about their "targeting" and other nifty, whiz-bang features, plain, old untargeted ads are returning solid revenues while still being underutilized. |
A paradigm shift may be required. There was a magazine issue (I forget which mag; maybe it was Business 2.0) earlier this year about the future of internet advertising.
One of the things they said was Yahoo and some others are focusing on visitor data collection to serve 'contextually irrelevant ads which are personally relevant.'
In other words, there's nothing on-site about a product or service, but by collecting user interest data from searching, etc., they know what you want, and a week or two later, or whenever, they show you an ad about it.
I was doing a search recently for a new car, let's pretend it was a 2007 Bentley Continental Flying Spur. A week later, I'm on a simple news site, reading an article about Darfur, and low and behold there's this ad for a 2007 Bentley Continental Flying Spur.
'How did they know I was just looking for that exact car?' I thought. Not exactly relevant to Darfur, is it?
A very primitive approach for a very modern company.
|One of the things they said was Yahoo and some others are focusing on visitor data collection to serve 'contextually irrelevant ads which are personally relevant.' |
That's partly out of necessity, but it also makes sense for portals, news sites, etc. where the topic of the page doesn't necessarily define the audience. (A reader of USA TODAY may skim through an article on canal boating in Elbonia, but it's unlikely that the reader is planning to go canal boating or to Elbonia--unlike the reader of a similar article on an Elbonian or canal-boating site, who 's likely to be researching a trip, tour, or cruise.)
There's room for both types of direct-response advertising--contextual and behavioral--along with general display advertising for branding purposes. And there's nothing to keep a publisher from profiting from more than one type of advertising (e.g., Google direct-response text ads and display ads from other vendors).
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