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This 55 message thread spans 2 pages: 55 ( [1] 2 > >     
CPC Drop on the 3/3 and beyond
JRnow




msg:3280680
 3:30 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

so who else has noticed this drop beginning on the 3/3/07 continuing through to yesterday. i'm pretty confident i'm not the only one experiencing this decline . . .

and no, this is not one of the normal "my earnings declined" threads . . . something happened and on-site advertiser targeting has changed.

i'm surprised nobody has posted about this yet.

 

trinorthlighting




msg:3280758
 4:27 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

We have noticed the same issue, we have also noticed that google ads are very slow to load recently.

Chapman




msg:3280777
 4:57 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

I concur as well... exactly starting the 3rd of this month.

I am now seeing CPC's that are 50-60% of what I had learned to live with which was 50% of my average CPC prior to 2006. Hope this drop isn't permanent.

i'm surprised nobody has posted about this yet

As of late, it doesn't seem popular to infer that all is not perfect.

Chapman

incrediBILL




msg:3280800
 5:18 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

My CPC stumbled on 3/11 when the daylight savings time changed but thankfully my increase in traffic is holding up the earnings.

I also punted some less-than-suitable advertisers the other day and it's possible they were paying better, might let them back on just to see.

I've seen temporary dips like this before so I'm not really concerned, yet ;)

As of late, it doesn't seem popular to infer that all is not perfect.

It never hurts to ask the AdSense team about your specific CPC issues because there could be a problem.

[edited by: incrediBILL at 5:22 pm (utc) on Mar. 13, 2007]

Raymond




msg:3280802
 5:25 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

I am not sure if mine started on the 3rd, it seemed to have started in late Feb. But EPC took a big dive on the 2nd March, another dive on the 4th March, and it is still dropping as of today. (From ~0.2 for the past few months, to yesterday 0.08, and today up to now 0.067, but it usually goes up a bit during busy hours)

Same as IncrediBill, my traffic has been up so total earnings remains roughly the same.

[edited by: Raymond at 5:30 pm (utc) on Mar. 13, 2007]

Hobbs




msg:3280821
 6:01 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

i'm surprised nobody has posted about this yet

As of late, it doesn't seem popular to infer that all is not perfect

Shhhhh they can hear you,
I'm guessing you have not been following the past threads, yes it was and it did, but my lips are sealed, I'm not telling what was and what did.

By the way, since removing ads from the lowest performing channels I am feeling a pulse again, slow, but Eeet Iz Alaive!

europeforvisitors




msg:3280825
 6:06 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

I've seen a contrary trend: March EPC and eCPM are up over February, and the 3rd (the date you mentioned) was the best day of the month on both counts.

I suspect that seasonal demand is playing a role in the increases.

mixart




msg:3280828
 6:10 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

Feb 27 my CPC started to drop and since then have been averaging about half what they were the month before.

creepychris




msg:3280878
 7:12 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

Funny, now that you mention it mine dropped on March 3rd as well by about 20%. And I've been steady for at least a few months (I only cut and pasted this year into excel to see if their was a trend starting at March 3rd).

I actually added more space for other advertising networks (Burst, CJ, Amazon etc) for the first time in two years. But, I've seen Adsense go up and down so I'll wait another month before I do anything drastic. But I do have to admit, it's currently at an all time low since June 2003.

Jolly_Roger




msg:3280931
 8:16 pm on Mar 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

I just calculated it too. My EPC was down by 22% in the 7-day period following 3/3 vs. the 7-day period before 3/3.

Sometimes, however, EPC dips for a few days and then recovers. Similarly, it will occasionally rise for no apparent reason. It's anything but predictable in my niche -- so I'm guessing ( hoping :) it's just a little blip.

Ad targetting is, as usual, excellent at my site.

MikeNoLastName




msg:3281178
 1:11 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

Yep, saw the same drop in travel related category, right about the tine we started getting a lot of full sized, graphic, site targeted ads, from big companies (like the Gnome Molesters and AAirlines :-). They are supposedly tripling the CPM over content targeted, with only 1/4-1/6 the CTR. Wonder if there is some relation, like these big companies determining it was cheaper to switching from bidding high PPCs to CPM and thus reducing the competition for content bids?

How many others started allowing channel targetting in Feb or so and are now seeing the drop?

I've also been wondering about the per ad reporting in this case? Think about if you have a 4 ad 300x250 unit that usually has 4 text ads. If one of the 4 ads is clicked every 6th page impression that is a per ad CTR of : 1/24 = 4.16%. Not unusual for some of our pages. Now I'm guessing if they replace those 4 ads with one graphic ad, and then you get one click on every 6th page impression, that should be 1/6 = 16.6%. Instead we are seeing CTR's more like 1/100 = 1% or less on site targeted ads! Saturation? Mismatched? possibly. Not that it SHOULD matter since supposedly they compare the eCPM when deciding which ads to display and site targeted ads are paid by impressions not clickthrus. But, imagine if they have a logic error in the part of the algo that decides which type ad to display, which is not taking into account the fact that the CPM of one large site targeted graphic ad at 15.00CPM should be compared to the CPM of FOUR individual context ads at 5.00CPM EACH (or 20.00CPM) not one ad! That could result in an effective 25% drop in overal revenue even though the eCPM is apparently triple. Wonder if there is a problem there? On the other hand I understand site targeted ads can also be single size ads, which would be a one on one comparison? It's all so confusing with so many possible variables and scenarios. I'm considering turning off site channel targeting for a while to see if things improve.

"It never hurts to ask the AdSense team about your specific CPC issues because there could be a problem."

I tried that on Friday or Saturday and surprisingly, for the first time ever, got a note from Adsense Support that they were "off for the weekend". Something new? Cut backs? Put Off? I've always gotten a quick response no matter what day before. Our CPM DID coincidently jump a little that evening, but overall has continued downward. On Monday, sure enough, I got the somewhat generic, but personalized, response that CPMs have and always will vary widely over time, etc. etc.

Edited Math:

[edited by: MikeNoLastName at 1:40 am (utc) on Mar. 14, 2007]

europeforvisitors




msg:3281189
 1:30 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

Wonder if there is some relation, like these big companies determining it was cheaper to switching from bidding high PPCs to CPM and thus reducing the competition for content bids?

Were those advertisers using CPC text ads previously? I'd guess that a lot of AdSense display-ad sales are made to new customers.

sailorjwd




msg:3281195
 1:49 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

My stats are rock solid - no changes.

They are consistently at the lowest level since starting in 2004.

The only thing keeping me going are these little pink pills.

Chapman




msg:3281204
 1:56 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

CPMs have and always will vary widely over time, etc. etc.

I definitely agree with that statement but we were talking about CPC (aka: EPC). My eCPM wanders all over the spectrum but my CPC stays extremely consistant.

Since February of 2006 my CPC has been at an expected (although somewhat depressing) figure within a few percent. As of March 3rd 2007, it has diminished by about 40%.

My niche is small and very specific so I know my advertisers (at least within a certain geographic realm). My field is fine art and the organizations that show ads on my site are the Guggenheim Museum, The Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) and similar galleries. Their advertisements are SO consistant that if it were not against the TOS I'd contact them directly to establish a more intimate relationship.

These twenty some organizations have shown ads on this site for a good number of years. It is difficult to understand why they would ALL suddenly start paying 45% less for content network advertising on the SAME day.

No, this was an adjustment... but for what reason and for how long?

Chapman

europeforvisitors




msg:3281273
 3:30 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

No, this was an adjustment... but for what reason and for how long?

And for what percentage of AdSense accounts? (Which would go with your "what reason" question, assuming that there really was an adjustment.)

Chapman




msg:3281308
 4:35 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

And for what percentage of AdSense accounts?

For those that experienced a diminishment of CPC on March 3rd.

Chapman

Jafo




msg:3281324
 4:56 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

Could it be that your sites are somehow related to the slowdown in the economy? I mean, it was around early March that China's market started to slide, and even today the DOW was down about 240 points or about 2%. It could be these companies (advertisers) are feeling the pinch.

wanderingmind




msg:3281376
 6:41 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

My EPC too dipped sometime last week. Traffic and clicks are consistent. Guess this is one of those blips - will give it a week and see.

permie




msg:3281428
 7:52 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

My average eCPM for March is down 23% from the average for February and down 37% from the previous 6 months average eCPM. I noticed the sudden change around the 3rd of March.

Yesterday I removed adsense from a site in my account that had my lowest eCPM. In the past I have noticed this helped improve the eCPM of my other channels and my overall earnings. I'm considering removing more channels that are on the low end of my channels eCPM. Even thou their eCPM would be considered high by most.

There is no rational explanation for many adsense users experiencing a sudden decline in eCPM at the same time other than that it is caused by a change in google algorithms.

This rapid change seemed to come in around the same time google adsense introduced site channel targeted cpm ads. Although I don't think that change explains this sudden drop either.

mzanzig




msg:3281463
 9:08 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

I am with EFV on this - no changes, in fact I notice an opposite trend. Looking at the past 22 days (averaging 100), the 11 days before 3/3 came out 92 while the 11 days including and after 3/3 came in as 108. Whatever Google have done (if anything) on that day, I like the effects.

Hobbs




msg:3281504
 10:05 am on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

Chapman:
this was an adjustment

Yes, totally agree, an algo change that obviously did not affect all publishers, it was timed after a reported AdSense login down.

Incidentally, it seems like WebMasterWorld threads for Mar 3rd have gone poof, either that or no one was here on Mar 3rd. (see for yourself)

Chapman




msg:3281569
 12:21 pm on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

Hobbs-

WebMasterWorld threads for Mar 3rd have gone poof

I did indeed notice that after doing a bit of back tracking based on comments from your first post.

Very curious!

Chapman

mainspot




msg:3281594
 12:53 pm on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

My site start to nose dive on 7th March along with the disappear of my keywords (around 5 keywords) on SERP first place, until today the traffic still discounted around 40%. The eCPM also discounted around 60-70%.

The site is already 4 years and keep growing every month for the last couple years, well... until 7th March...

Start from 7th March, I check my keywords everyday and since yesterday some of them are back to 1st SERP page again, but the lower position for some keywords.
The eCPM still not showing any improvement.

2 days ago, I emailed GA support asking for what happened with my stats in term of page view and eCPM. Up until now there is no respons either from the automatic responder or human support.

What happened exacly @ Google? I think this whole thing might be some kind of accident instead of planned update.

Well, just look @ the bright side, it's kind of free money anyway! (at least for me...)

JRnow




msg:3282124
 9:06 pm on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

Thanks for the comments. Yes, we are specifically discussing CPC (or eCPC) which is your average on-site CPC rates. We are not discussing eCPM because several metrics make up this number.

Let me also ask this question of those publishers who noticed a drop or decline in CPC rates on 3/3/07 and beyond, how many have noticed an increase in on-page CTR?

Many of you may not have noticed any change in eCPM because a decline in one metric (CPC) and an increase in another metric (CTR) could easily offset each other, making this change unnoticeable to many.

Obviously with smaller publishers metrics fluctuate all the time . . . so if you fall in this category, please understand it is impossible to draw any specific conclusions off of your limited data.

Chapman




msg:3282143
 9:36 pm on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

JRnow-

how many have noticed an increase in on-page CTR?

Oddly, I recieved the highest number of clicks for all time on the 5th... resulting in an abnormally high CTR for the day. I chalked it up to Google playing "click catch-up" after a rather significant weekend "drought".

Everything (except CPC) seems to have returned to normal immediately after that, however.

Chapman

Jolly_Roger




msg:3282147
 9:39 pm on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

The weeks prior and after 3/3 are not good for me to measure CTR. I removed ads from several highly-viewed pages during that time which receive almost no clicks -- and have nearly no effect on earnings or EPC. However, large numbers of unclicked pages do rather drastically affect the CTR, so my CTR data isn't very informative.

However, if those with reliable CTR data show CTR more-or-less offsetting EPC, then one must consider those lower EPC ads roughly competitive with the higher EPC ones -- since G plays those two factors against each other when deciding which ad to show.

[edited by: Jolly_Roger at 9:40 pm (utc) on Mar. 14, 2007]

Pengi




msg:3282240
 10:48 pm on Mar 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

3/3 was surprisingly normal for me. There's no obvious change in EPC, CPC, CTR or traffic.

But At least I have data for 3/3 :) Good Spot Hobbs - the conspiracy theory starts here.

Scurramunga




msg:3282468
 6:20 am on Mar 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

March CPC is 20% down on last year for me.

MikeNoLastName




msg:3282545
 8:38 am on Mar 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

See my prior post. They're giving an intentional discount to large site targeters, at publisher's expense, to encourage future advertising despite the relatively low click thru. Believe me or don't. :)

loner




msg:3282563
 9:05 am on Mar 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

For what it's worth, my site took a dump on the 7th by at 1/3 - 1/2 when earnings were already down by 20% from last year.

This 55 message thread spans 2 pages: 55 ( [1] 2 > >
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