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Distressing decline in earnings with Oct 2006 worst month in 1-1/2 yrs!
trader




msg:3140744
 7:52 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

My networks big decline started near the end of Sept and ongoing thru today. It has been dismal day after day for going on 5-weeks, with only 1 good day vs our average stats over the 3 plus yrs with Adsense.

In fact, our bottom line revenue has hit rock bottom where Oct is the worst month since April 2005. However, the number of websites we have running Adsense is up considerably over the past 1-1/2 years.

This is extremely depressing and we do not look forward to the considerable work involving moving many of the sites to YPN to see if things improve there, or other monetization techniques to replace Adsense on many of our sites.

Things are so negative we are seriously thinking about closing down many (if not most) of our smaller websites (maybe even a few larger ones too) and moving the domains to PPC Parking Pages where the results may be better (unlikely they could be any worse).

Asking support about our big decline is futile as all we get is the usual automated sounding response saying we should try different colors and ad positions, etc., which has already been heavily optimized during all the good times from May 2005 thru Sept 2006, and seriously doubt that can be improved.

Have many other members seen this distressing decline since the end of Sept thru now?

 

humblebeginnings




msg:3140752
 8:03 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

I sort of get bored because of my own complaining, and yes I know, I should work on more quality content, ad placement and tweaking stuff, and yes I know Adsense has its ups and downs, etcetera.

But since you are asking, yes this was my worst month in a very long time. Since mid september my earnings have been falling to about 10 to 15 % of what they used to be. And I still can't see the bottom of the damn thing yet!

percentages




msg:3140765
 8:14 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

We are in the online sales business.....you really expect all roses?

How many threads exist here about people expecting all roses?

It is a nonsense, there are ups and downs.

My wife left me at one of our downs! It gets bad!

You have to bounce back......and when you do your life will change...and your wife will return!

Internet marketing is a risky business......live with it, or do something else......but, please don't whine about it. Somedays are great....some are horrible, it happens.....quit the whining!

frox




msg:3140779
 8:32 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

It's not about whining (well, not only about it...)

The fact is, I suspect there is a trend in these declining earnings. Some well-documented cases show declines in earnings on large sites with large traffic and broad contents (so, no single small niche)...

So, those accounts should have FAR less statistical variations, and historically have.

I think there is a trend.....

trader




msg:3140787
 8:41 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

...It is a nonsense, there are ups and downs. ...

Not for me! As far as we are concerned there have never really been any ups and downs since joining Adsense July 2003. In 3-1/2 yrs my stats have been incredibly consistent with ongoing steady growth month after month, and only occasional stagnant periods (but not monthly declines of any significance or worth worrying about much).

It has been so rock solid for my network of sites that I could easily predict the revenue for the month with amazing accuracy based only on a small sample number of days at the months beginning. I have been doing that for these 3-1/2 yrs successfully, sometimes within a few dollars of the final numbers.

The reason our network has been so incredibly steady or advancing is that it's highly diversified large network of sites across a very broad and wide number of seperate categories covering most everything you could think of (except adult), both personal and business sites, including a number of real estate and financial trading sites, plus many other categories.

When this major decline started near the end of Sept I knew almost immediately there was going to be a huge decline :( over the upcoming month, which has proved very accurate unfortunately.

ronin




msg:3140834
 10:22 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Rather like the stock market, I find that the long-term trend with AdSense - as long as I keep writing and adding new content to my site - is upwards.

Occasionally, for a month or two the earnings graph heads south a little way. Usually when it resumes it quickly passes the previous peak and continues to climb.

Experience has shown me that every time earnings start to drop it's more likely to be a short term (ie. one to two month) blip than anything more significant.

Tropical Island




msg:3140838
 10:33 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

You probably have already seen it however if not read the thread on CPM advertisers and site targeting. This is possibly your problem.

[webmasterworld.com...]

Also have a look at the MFA's on your sites and block them. I assume that's not what YOU are. :-)

miguelito




msg:3140847
 10:52 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

I just had my best month in 2 years, taking 20 % more than any other month ( and i am talking about an increase of $ 1500 not peanuts )

= not bragging, just so you get an idea of the value of a 20 % increase.

andrewshim




msg:3140854
 11:06 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Rather like the stock market, I find that the long-term trend with AdSense - as long as I keep writing and adding new content to my site - is upwards.
Occasionally, for a month or two the earnings graph heads south a little way. Usually when it resumes it quickly passes the previous peak and continues to climb.

Experience has shown me that every time earnings start to drop it's more likely to be a short term (ie. one to two month) blip than anything more significant.

ditto...

trannack




msg:3140862
 11:39 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

I have to say - same old, same old. Everything is just normal. The only thing is my traffic has significantly increaed this month - but I expect that in October, so nothing out of the ordinary. My earnings per click is a bit down - but I also expect that with the dollar/pound situation.

UserFriendly




msg:3140880
 12:08 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

I'm also seeing a record-high month. More than 50% ($10) higher than last month, with all the stats up.

But I've only been at this since January, and I have a very low-traffic site, so I'm not really the best one to sniff out AdSense trends.

JinxBoy




msg:3140937
 1:27 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Lowest EPC ever for me this month... Still good income for me, but my EPC did go down about 40%...

zoggle




msg:3140950
 2:00 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Haven't you searched Google lately?
Seen any *real* Ads?

...just take a look...

"all you need to know about *keyword*"
"Top recommended sites for *keyword*"
"explore the top sites on *keywords*"
"we found the cheapest *keyword*"
"free *keyword*"

tons of cleverly keyworded ".info" sites!

^_^

Broadway




msg:3140974
 2:21 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

I personally would like to hear reports from webmasters who have been with Adsense over 3 years (or pretty close to it) and serve in excess of a half million Adsense page views a month. That's long enough and enough volume that their stats should be meaningful.

I fit these stats and while there is seasonality to my Adsense figures, this is the fall that things just have not come around as they have in the past. eCPM is off by about 25%.

I wasn't around during the boom and bust years of banner advertising but I would assume that, while I don't expect Adsense to die (not even remotely), one prime period for participating in Adsense has past.

When I see low eCPM the only thing that goes through my mind is that there has been a loss of advertisers in my field, which is exactly what I would expect due to the way Adsense runs its program. It's well known that many advertisers opt out of the content side of the program, due to non-conversion of clicks.

The way Adsense is run (MFA's, parked domains, get one site approved and then place Adsense on any other site you want too) just breeds fraudulent activity. I think advertisers realize this and more and more have decided to stay away.

If Adsense had any sort of quality review then people wouldn't be able to slap up a MFA (no real content) site overnight. Assuming therefore that it did take some content to create an Adsense site, the spammer's approach would have to be one where they would be forced to create their overnight Adsense site by stealing content. But this wouldn't be as big of a problem as the current situation due to duplicate content penalties and legit webmasters filing DMCA complaints. Compared to today's environment, it would be at least somewhat self policing.

[edited by: Broadway at 2:23 pm (utc) on Oct. 31, 2006]

sailorjwd




msg:3140975
 2:22 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

"My wife left me at one of our downs!"

Perhaps you should have diversified :)

Move to Utah.

For those few of you saying things are great as usual, I bet many of you have never made $1000 in a day... if you are already at the bottm then there isn't much to lose.

I'm doing 1/20th of best days of 2 year+ compared to now. That's with 20% more (original) content added this month and 100% added over the last 18mos. That is not just an up/down. That is a total wipe out.

It is so bad this month that YPN is now outperforming Adsense 2 to 1 on many of my pages... I'm gradually switching over.

And, we don't have an MFA site here. I sell my own custom software or get a RFP each and every day. So obviously advertisers selling like products (if they can beat my price/performance) have a great chance of selling their products and services.

Phone is ringing... got to go.

jdpenguin




msg:3140977
 2:27 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Something happened this month (maybe towards the end of September). My page CTR has increased by about 40% (it has rarely fluctuated more than 10% before). Perhaps I'm getting more targeted ads. Thank you adsense, keep up the good work!

trannack




msg:3140998
 2:52 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

sailorjwd: "For those few of you saying things are great as usual, I bet many of you have never made $1000 in a day... if you are already at the bottm then there isn't much to lose. "

My intention is not to gloat - because I am more than aware that things can all change overnight, and tomorrow it could be me posting on here asking you guys for advice on whats happened to my account. I do earn in excess of $1000 a day - and have done for some time. The reason I have posted here, is that sometimes you get a skewed idea of what is going on, as the only people who are posting are those with problems. This is not always the case. I am merely saying that my figures are normal. I have a reasonable amount of stats and earnings to look at, so my opinion of "normal" is pretty valid.

However, as stated, I have noticed a decline in EPC - but this has not impacted my monthly figures, as my traffic has been up at the same time. I think the Exchange rates at the moment could be having an impact.

I hope you all have some success with increaing your revenues, and perhaps Google will provide us all with a bit more information as to why some of you are experiencing difficulties.

europeforvisitors




msg:3141074
 3:59 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

I personally would like to hear reports from webmasters who have been with Adsense over 3 years (or pretty close to it) and serve in excess of a half million Adsense page views a month. That's long enough and enough volume that their stats should be meaningful.

My travel site's eCPM is down about 23% for Oct 1-30 compared to the same period last year. However, I've made some site changes that have been at the expense of AdSense, so the "apples and oranges" factor comes into play.

One difference between this year and last year is bidding: Advertisers can now bid separately on the content network, so even sites that aren't heavily "smart-priced" are likely to receive lower earnings per click (everything else being equal) than they would have under the old one-bid-for-search-and-content system.

I wasn't around during the boom and bust years of banner advertising but I would assume that, while I don't expect Adsense to die (not even remotely), one prime period for participating in Adsense has past.

Actually, banners are back in bloom (or boom), at least in some sectors. One of the big research firms recently predicted that display advertising revenues will grow faster in the next few years than text-ad revenues will, and that appears to be true in my sector. Big brand-name advertisers who've dabbled in text ads may have concluded that such ads are useful for targeted, time-sensitive promotions (not unlike direct mail) but are less effective than display advertising for campaigns with a larger purpose.

On my own site, I see many AdSense ads for small and medium-sized companies, including companies that have been advertising in the back of publications like THE NEW YORKER and THE NEW YORK TIMES Travel Section for years, but I'm seeing fewer AdSense ads for airlines, cruise lines, and other big-name corporate advertisers.

It's well known that many advertisers opt out of the content side of the program, due to non-conversion of clicks.

Of course, they've been able to opt out all along. Are more opting out now? We don't know. (But see my admittedly anecdotal evidence above.)

The way Adsense is run (MFA's, parked domains, get one site approved and then place Adsense on any other site you want too) just breeds fraudulent activity. I think advertisers realize this and more and more have decided to stay away.

Could be, and it doesn't have to be because they're afraid of fraud. A flood of low-quality traffic (whether it's fraudulent or not) may be enough to give some advertisers the willies.

If Adsense had any sort of quality review then people wouldn't be able to slap up a MFA (no real content) site overnight.

I don't think the solution is that simple. There's no way that AdSense could review every page from every publisher, so publishers who wanted to create MFA sites could simply add MFA pages to their existing domains. Let's say I've got a legitimate site about dogs that has been approved by AdSense, and I want to make more money. I just create 1,000 junk pages at www.mydogsite.com about home mortgages, Viagra, credit cards, real estate, etc. and rake in the AdSense revenues without a new domain.

Google opened a Pandora's box when it made AdSense revenues available to anybody and everybody, but that was the price that it (and the Internet public) paid for giving mom-and-pop publishers a way to earn money from their sites. The question now is how Google can or should deal with the obvious junk-traffic problems. I'd guess that, in terms of scalability, the only solution is to starve out the junk publishers with smart pricing , a flexible payout or compensation formula that takes "quality scoring" into account, and perhaps some kind of tiered system that gives advertisers greater control over what they're buying. The current "bid on content and take potluck" approach isn't likely to be good enough for mainstream advertisers who have other options (such as display campaigns), so I'd expect AdSense to introduce new products or subsets of the network in the future. Then we can say "AdSense 1.0 is dead, long live AdSense 2.0."

bwnbwn




msg:3141091
 4:10 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Our October is down in revenue but up is traffic. We had a 50% increase in clicks but a drop in per click price. I feel this is a normal fluctation and look forward to a higher price to go along with the increase in traffic.

It could be the bigger spenders have gotten out of the content match as well.

Car_Guy




msg:3141110
 4:25 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Our network (is a) highly-diversified, large network of sites across a very broad and wide number of separate categories covering most everything you could think of (except adult), both personal and business sites, including a number of real estate and financial trading sites, plus many other categories.


sailorjwd




msg:3141133
 4:43 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Google's adsense business model design is a 'moral hazard'. (Term borrowed from the insurance industry)

It is the enticement of free money with little effort and nearly zero oversight (except perhaps for true click fraud) - combined with few consequences.

Mom & pop websites having the ability to generate some revenue is a whole different situation compared to parked domains (which I think is the lowest of the low), fake search sites and the Best x sites.

The policy of not reviewing all websites is destroying adsense. Even when they do review sites google apparently loves parked domains, fake sites and best x sites.

trader




msg:3141431
 7:44 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

IMO, there is absolutely nothing inherantly wrong with parked pages or small developed sites running adsense because the typical targeted keyword content and relevant ads deliver well targeted customers to the advertisers who buy the products and services similar to a large content site I am sure.

Why would Google run the large 'Adsense For Domains' (high traffic client - parked domains) program if that traffic was not valuable and desired?

...parked domains (which I think is the lowest of the low...

europeforvisitors




msg:3141450
 8:00 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

IMO, there is absolutely nothing inherantly wrong with parked pages or small developed sites running adsense because the typical targeted keyword content and relevant ads deliver well targeted customers to the advertisers who buy the products and services similar to a large content site I am sure.

Not necessarily. Keyword targeting is only half the battle--audience and user intent are the other. Is the person who arrives on a parked domain for widgets looking to buy a widget right then? Probably not: According to DoubleClick's "Research Before the Purchase" study of 2005, the typical online buyer conducts at least five research sessions before making a purchase. So, if the parked-domain page has no content except AdSense, the odds that a click will result in a sale aren't especially good, because the user is probably looking for information and not to conduct a transaction or begin a relationship with the seller.

In any case, perception can be more important than reality. It's clear from any number of threads on the AdWords forum that not all advertisers like parked domains and other sites that are built around keywords without content. So, even if parked domains do perform well for most advertisers (a claim that hasn't been supported by evidence), that won't matter to prospective advertisers whose instincts tell them that low-quality sites deliver low-quality traffic.

jomaxx




msg:3141458
 8:05 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

IMO, there is absolutely nothing inherantly wrong with parked pages or small developed sites running adsense

...I don't know if it's "inherently wrong", but it's explicitly prohibited in the Program Policies.

ftwb05




msg:3141498
 8:50 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

whenever I got down about revenue I pick up my copy of "who moved my Cheese" - the stories of Hem, Haw, Sniff & Scurry always get me thinking about new ways to improve my sites, write new ones, optimise and come up with fresh Ideas. I recomend it to anyone. It's not about the web at all, just about how to deal with change in your life, business, etc.

danimal




msg:3141546
 9:32 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

last i heard, google has more ads on parked domain pages than any other ad network... and since domain parking is a booming business, it must be working for some advertisers:

"The more generic, advertising-oriented domains are known in industry parlance as "direct navigation" sites because they attract visitors searching for information by typing an address, such as "newyorkrealestate.com," directly into their Web browsers, rather than using a search engine. Domain owners are paid each time someone clicks on an ad placed on one of these sites by ad brokers like Google.
Revenue from text ads on these sites will total $400 million to $600 million world-wide this year and may reach $1 billion by 2007, according to Susquehanna Financial Group analysts Marianne Wolk and Roxane Previty, who track the online ad industry."
[online.wsj.com...]

europeforvisitors




msg:3141557
 9:46 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

More about Google's DomainPark program:

[webmasterworld.com...]

[edited by: jatar_k at 10:53 pm (utc) on Oct. 31, 2006]
[edit reason] fixed link [/edit]

trader




msg:3141625
 10:55 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

....if the parked-domain page has no content except AdSense, the odds that a click will result in a sale aren't especially good...

When I said small sites with adsense (even 1-pagers) are likely good for the advertisers of course it was meant assuming they had some relevant content and a keyword rich domain name identifies the subject.

Sure ad only developed sites are not good and also violate the Adsense TOS anyway. However, with small sites and parked domains, if the title, domain name, description and possible old bookmarks and old links bring traffic and are relevant and the url may be ranked in the SE too, then that traffic likely performs and converts well as it is considered to be targeted.

trader




msg:3141628
 11:04 pm on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

... but it's explicitly prohibited in the Program Policies.

Unless I am missunderstading you, it appears you are confused on this as Adsense For Domains is devoted to parked domains, and with regular Adsense it's OK as long as the website has content and other factors.

Play_Bach




msg:3141664
 12:03 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

> the old one-bid-for-search-and-content system.

Those were the days! ;-)

This 82 message thread spans 3 pages: 82 ( [1] 2 3 > >
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