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This 82 message thread spans 3 pages: < < 82 ( 1 [2] 3 > >     
Distressing decline in earnings with Oct 2006 worst month in 1-1/2 yrs!
trader




msg:3140744
 7:52 am on Oct 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

My networks big decline started near the end of Sept and ongoing thru today. It has been dismal day after day for going on 5-weeks, with only 1 good day vs our average stats over the 3 plus yrs with Adsense.

In fact, our bottom line revenue has hit rock bottom where Oct is the worst month since April 2005. However, the number of websites we have running Adsense is up considerably over the past 1-1/2 years.

This is extremely depressing and we do not look forward to the considerable work involving moving many of the sites to YPN to see if things improve there, or other monetization techniques to replace Adsense on many of our sites.

Things are so negative we are seriously thinking about closing down many (if not most) of our smaller websites (maybe even a few larger ones too) and moving the domains to PPC Parking Pages where the results may be better (unlikely they could be any worse).

Asking support about our big decline is futile as all we get is the usual automated sounding response saying we should try different colors and ad positions, etc., which has already been heavily optimized during all the good times from May 2005 thru Sept 2006, and seriously doubt that can be improved.

Have many other members seen this distressing decline since the end of Sept thru now?

 

jomaxx




msg:3141702
 12:49 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Trader: Yes, exactly. You're not supposed to run the regular AdSense code on parked domains, you have to join the Domain Park program. Of course if the domain has content and other factors then it ain't "parked".

starchild




msg:3141729
 1:27 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

This is the first month (in 12 or so since i started) that revenue is down. I am thinking though that it is normal seasonal flcutuation - or at least a natuaral fluctuation of some type. Seemed to dive artound 2nd Oct. Roughly 190k pageviews.

Need to view stats for at least 2 more months before making any judgements. Search engine ranknigs still about same, so nothing to do with that.

Fingers crossed.

Actually- I have noticed that there has been some badly targeted ads that I just can't get rid of. Some pages not showing ads - code is fine. not sure what is going on there.

incrediBILL




msg:3141744
 1:51 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

My income went down some over the summer, so I did some work to boost traffic.

Now it's back as good as ever.

So now I'm doing some more traffic boosting efforts, we'll see what happens next!

martinibuster




msg:3141762
 2:26 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

In this case it may not be seasonal. It's noteworthy that the decline is occurring across multiple topics. This shouldn't be.

Are your sites interlinked?
If the search algo changed so that all of your sites are receiving bad queries then that would account for it too, even more likely if your sites are interlinked. I've seen site ranks affected adversely through interlinking.

Keyword Analysis
Have you done an analysis of the keywords people are using to access your site? The reasons people are accessing your site can account for whether or not they click. For instance, a change in visitors from buyers to people who are selling could make a difference.

Traffic quality
The fact that this affecting your sites across topics makes me wonder if perhaps there is a similarity in traffic source? Is there a shared source of traffic feeding these sites? If so, then the quality of traffic may have gone down.

Could it be seasonal?
It's hard to make a case for seasonality because this has not happened his business over the last few years. It's unprecedented.

Could it be the economic situation?
However, it is possible that it's related to social and/or economical changes. For instance, you mention that some of your sites are in Real Estate. We are in the midst of a huge real estate slump so it's no surprise if your real estate sites are experiencing a dip. If your other sites are related then you may be able to attribute at least some of your drop to that phenomenom. But this would get back to keywords beind used to access your site and the reasons people are coming to your site. See above.

trader




msg:3141848
 5:14 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Those are interesting issues Martin.

Thanks for your time and feedback.

[edited by: martinibuster at 5:47 am (utc) on Nov. 1, 2006]
[edit reason] Spelling. [/edit]

JoeS




msg:3141872
 5:43 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

October has been my worst month this year. I'm seeing earnings per click drop about 30% from my peak earnings month. I think there are too many sites using Adsense now so eventually they will start paying less. Just look around. Almost every site is using Adsense text ads.

david_uk




msg:3141911
 6:59 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I personally would like to hear reports from webmasters who have been with Adsense over 3 years (or pretty close to it) and serve in excess of a half million Adsense page views a month. That's long enough and enough volume that their stats should be meaningful.

It's going down - no question.

eCPM for October last year was $25.66, and october the year before was way over $40. I'm not going to mention this months as I'm too ashamed.

The first 9 months with adsense were my experimental months, and after that things stabilised as I'd realised what worked and what didn't. This month is the second worst month since then. The previous worst month as regards ecpm was August this year. In fact, in the last year I've seen a steady decline that (thankfully) this month has at least halted.

I've seen my site rise in serps to position 2/3, traffic (consequently impressions) has grown steadily, with a steady ctr.

incrediBILL




msg:3141932
 7:38 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

eCPM for October last year was $25.66, and october the year before was way over $40. I'm not going to mention this months as I'm too ashamed.

My average eCPM is about $15 and top ever was $18.

If you have the traffic, you can make some serious money on $15 eCPM.

If I ever had $40 eCPM my butler would be typing this.

[edited by: martinibuster at 9:48 am (utc) on Nov. 1, 2006]
[edit reason] Spelling. [/edit]

caran1




msg:3141959
 8:29 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I have 200K page views this month, but eCPM is down. I know my traffic converts well since I earn OK with the few affiliate programs available. I think the SEM companies set very low CPC prices for the content network and make a lot of money from the leads they sell to companies. Publishers with converting traffic will suffer, till Google starts offering some PPA option.

Genuine1




msg:3141960
 8:31 am on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Ecpm 18 three years back. Now 23.

This month was $3500
Same month last year 2800
Same month 2 years back 2400
Same month 3 years back 2300

No site changes. Natural traffic.

[edited by: Genuine1 at 8:38 am (utc) on Nov. 1, 2006]

rigi




msg:3142164
 1:44 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Hi,

well my sites revenue went down about 60% in October even though I had about 15% more traffic and CTR was steady as before. Now my question is how do I know if my acc got smart priced or not. My sites are not MFA ofcourse, they have real content etc. (every single one on my acc)and still I experience a steady drop in revenue. I would also like to know what are the criteria on which an acc gets smartpriced. If somebody can help ..

Genuine1




msg:3142172
 1:55 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Hi,

You cant know, too many variables!

Is your content "really good" good, ok, or just more of the same old?
Would it be a seller if it was on the shelf in a bookstore? Or would a publishing company want it? Seems like googles algo is getting good at seeing the difference judging by all the dropping income posts around here?

Broadway




msg:3142178
 2:07 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Four people who have been in the program over 3 years and server over a half million Adsense page views a month have posted:

Broadway ------- eCPM off 25%
europeforvisitors ------- eCPM off 23%
david_uk ------- eCPM off 35%
Genuine1 ------- eCPM off 21%

I know these aren't direct comparisons, europeforvisitors reports changes to his site. Other comparisons may be as compared to an all time high eCPM or else the same time period 12 months ago. But no one (declaring a 3 year/500,000 page view per month basis) has reported stable or increased eCPM.

rigi




msg:3142182
 2:12 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Hey,

thank you for the reply, but what bothers me is how to define good content. If it was me i`d browse my site everyday but that doesn`t tell anything. To describe the site a bit, it`s a picture gallery site with topics like vehicles/traveling/cool places/buildings (12 different categories). It has about 1500 galleries in flash with proper descriptions.

Broadway




msg:3142185
 2:15 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I just read my sticky mail. A member (3 years/500,000 page views) who would perfer to keep their statistics confidential stickied me and stated that October was the first month (12 month basis) that they had dropped out of the UPS club.

Still no one reporting stable or increased eCPM.

rigi




msg:3142186
 2:16 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Forgot to add that the gallery descriptions are ofcourse not in flash. And my ads are targeted nicely and I use my competitive ad filter a lot!

drall




msg:3142188
 2:19 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Broadway,
I cant go into details due to our nda with G but I can tell you we have a large network of authority sites and a few you guys would know by name and this past month of October was our lowest epc in 3.5 years by far and way below statistical norms.

We serve millions of pvs a month, our best guess is this is the beginning of the myspace/youtube effect. Certain channels of epc are being drilled out due to inventory, this coupled with g kicking out the scum from the search engine ads and forcing them onto the publisher network has had a noticable decline of stable epc by over 40% now from 3.5 year averages.

eCPM is down 39.5% from 3.5 year averages over the last 40 days.

Broadway




msg:3142204
 2:38 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Six (3year/half million) publishers reporting a decline in eCPM. None reporting stable or increased eCPM.

Broadway




msg:3142212
 2:42 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Evidently my bias on this topic allowed me to misinterpret one posting.

One (3yr/half million) publisher reporting and increase in eCPM

Genuine1 - eCPM up 27%

5 reporting declines.

ken_b




msg:3142222
 2:52 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Broadway; I started in 03 and do well over a half million impressions per month.

My October 06 eCPM is up 14% over September 06.

europeforvisitors




msg:3142231
 3:03 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

But no one (declaring a 3 year/500,000 page view per month basis) has reported stable or increased eCPM.

It depends on what you're comparing. In my case, October 2006 was down 23% over Octobr 2005, but it was also:

- Up 8.5% over October 2004

- Up 64% over October 2003

And, of course, different months of the year have different average eCPMs in many cases (they certainly do on a travel site like mine), so unless all the other people who have reported here are comparing October to October averages, we're comparing different things.

I do get the impression that the AdSense market was soft in October, 2006, but on the plus side, the October results were still better in 2006 than in 2003 and 2004, despite the introduction of smart pricing in 2004 and separate bidding for search and content in 2006. It will be interesting to see what October, 2007 brings.

Genuine1




msg:3142246
 3:19 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Four people who have been in the program over 3 years and server over a half million Adsense page views a month have posted:
Broadway ------- eCPM off 25%
europeforvisitors ------- eCPM off 23%
david_uk ------- eCPM off 35%
Genuine1 ------- eCPM off 21%

? mines UP not down!

trannack




msg:3142257
 3:31 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I'm not really sure quite how constructive this is. Speaking for myself, two years ago I started with my first site with adsense, my ecpm was high - higher than it is today. Over time I have introduced several more sites - in several different niches. My ecpm has reduced over time - but I would have expected this, as the later sites that I have introduced perhaps are in lower earning sectors - therefore the amount of payment per click is bound to be less, therefore reducing the ecpm as time has progressed. These figures will only work if the sites have remained static. No new sites added or taken away.

As this is highly unlikely scenario, as most web developers are adding and deleting pages fairly frequently, I think these statistics are not very relevant to the current situation.

Don't mean to be a kill-joy just how I see it. :)

europeforvisitors




msg:3142320
 4:08 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

My ecpm has reduced over time - but I would have expected this, as the later sites that I have introduced perhaps are in lower earning sectors - therefore the amount of payment per click is bound to be less, therefore reducing the ecpm as time has progressed. These figures will only work if the sites have remained static. No new sites added or taken away.

You may also see a downward trend if you add a great many pages on "non-commercial" topics to an existing, established site. For example, on my travel-planning site, I've probably added more than a thousand pages in the last year about destinations that most travelers would consider obscure or at least off the most heavily beaten tourist track. Given that fact, I'd be pleasantly surprised if I hadn't seen a moderate decline in AdSense EPC and eCPM.

Genuine1




msg:3142321
 4:10 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

My pages have not been touched on most of my main sites since posting between 86 and 99. Apart from sticking google ads on october 03!

Income began at a few k monthly . And each few months it rose and fell a little but overall it rose!

its still going up. ecpm up by 30 percent over the last 5 weeks. Less mfas seen, better click through rates etc.

I am lazy, or I would be madly building sites for the last 3 years. But Unless you REALLY have something to say thats interesting or thats isnt already out there or something else worthwhile I dont think it would pay much if at all. Maybe it used to do. But it seems that the algo is learning the difference? Of course algos are not perfect...

[edited by: Genuine1 at 4:19 pm (utc) on Nov. 1, 2006]

Car_Guy




msg:3142333
 4:15 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I keep checking my pages to see whose ads are appearing and do my best to allow only quality, well-targeted ads. I opted out of CPM ads. Also, I watch the performance of every page, and remove ads from the pages with the lowest eCPM and switch them over to YPN ads.

My earnings for October were up 12.6% from September and up 13.2% from August.

Genuine1




msg:3142341
 4:20 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Are you natural traffic driven by good content or arbitrage?

---

And from a post on the previous page

> the old one-bid-for-search-and-content system.
Those were the days! ;-)

That made absolutely no difference to my epc or anything else amazingly.

[edited by: Genuine1 at 4:24 pm (utc) on Nov. 1, 2006]

FrostyMug




msg:3142350
 4:31 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I'm sorry to hear that.

my revenues are up 12% this month, but traffic is down at least 30% on the count of my site being dropped from google images index.

I too experienced huge falls, in fact, in july of this year, i dropped about 50% of Google revenue, only to bring it all back and then gain on top of it. I've seen too many ups and downs.

I truly think this has to do with topic and availability of ads. If your site is a social network, remember that google just promised 900M in adsense ads to MySpace. It also has to do with conversion (smart pricing). It has to do with % of returning visitors, for my site, it's about 5%, if you have a forum, remember to brace yourself. And of course the mother of all reasons - traffic and published content!

good luck to all :)

edit: also, i do not use the adsense filter and allow all ads to be displayed.

[edited by: FrostyMug at 4:32 pm (utc) on Nov. 1, 2006]

Car_Guy




msg:3142420
 5:13 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

If the question "Are you natural traffic driven by good content or arbitrage?" was directed at me, the site has content that many people have told me is excellent, only gets organic traffic, and has been online for ten years.

I described my site in more detail in a thread I started a couple of months ago, but after spending time searching for it so I could add a link to it, the thread seems to have been deleted and I'm not typing it all out again. (Sorry!)

Genuine1




msg:3142474
 5:50 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

It seems that all the best content type sites are up.
All (most - algos dont always get it right! Sorry hunderdown!) the thin, mfa, or dubious content type sites that were created purely for adsense are down. Thats why I asked. This seems to be a widespread trend over the last few weeks! Which can only be a good thing for the "good" sites. But like the quality score on the adwords side the algo gets it wrong too. I think this is a seperate additional thing thats different to smartpricing, designed to cut down on arbitrage and bad sites generally.

[edited by: Genuine1 at 5:53 pm (utc) on Nov. 1, 2006]

ken_b




msg:3142556
 6:45 pm on Nov 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

>> arbitrage....

Good point. My traffic is all from organic (free) serps or inbound links from other sites. All "free".

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