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Google Tops Out According to Comscore
Brett_Tabke

WebmasterWorld Administrator brett_tabke us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 12:01 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

[framehosting.dowjonesnews.com...]

Google Inc.'s (GOOG) share of the U.S. Internet search market dipped a full percentage point in July when compared to June's total, according to research released Friday by comScore Networks Inc.

"We think (the) loss in domestic market share could signal a topping point" for Google, he wrote. "We do not expect Google's aggressive market share gains to continue in perpetuity."

Please read stats with a bit of statistical weary eye. A 1% difference is well within a margin of error.

 

ogletree

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ogletree us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 12:10 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

When a company is at top everybody is always looking for some stat or new thing that shows the giant is falling.

skibum

WebmasterWorld Administrator skibum us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 1:45 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

I think all those numbers are suspect. 5%+ each for Ask & AOL. Traffic stats from a varity of sites don't reflect that at all. It could be a tipping point but if G just stops growing, that in of itself could be a tipping point.

How reliable is Comscore data anyway?

penfold25

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 2:13 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Rubbish, only change i see is when Vista comes online.

smells so good

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 2:33 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Sensationalism. No one can "sustain market share gains in perpetuity". I don't see anything ominous here. AOL likely improved due to promotion and error. The remaining appears to be everflux.

MSN from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) retained its 12.8% share

That's the only bit of bad news that I saw. As mentioned, they have Vista in the wings. Let's see how things settle out after that release.

There is a growing line of "I told you so's", waiting for the day Google drops something.

rohitj

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 3:33 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

This is absolutely meaningless and, in my mind, not even news worthy. First of all, i would be very skeptical of comscore and, secondly, this is statistically irrelevant due to the marin of error.

cerebrum

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 4:04 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)


I think all those numbers are suspect. 5%+ each for Ask & AOL. Traffic stats from a varity of sites don't reflect that at all. It could be a tipping point but if G just stops growing, that in of itself could be a tipping point.

How reliable is Comscore data anyway?

This explains the reliability of comscore data. Full of crap.

Compworld

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 5:51 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Here's to my fingers being crossed. :)

techrealm

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 7:58 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

$speculation {invoke default answer = 'Talk to me in 6 months...'};

night707

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 8:22 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Google search is way too powerful and competitors are way too weak. An unhealthy market with arrogance and incompetence at either sides. Surfers and publishers need something better.

vincevincevince

WebmasterWorld Senior Member vincevincevince us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 8:28 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

I see Google making big increases in market share in the next six months. Especially when Vista comes out and network admins worldwide start their scheduled jumping up and down about extortionate prices from Microsoft (--> Firefox --> Google defaults).

Compworld

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 9:36 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Unless MSFT or YHOO acquires Mozilla Foundation. Hey, it can happen. Google is running out of allies. If eBay, Yahoo, and MSFT team up, Google would not be able to take them all up as a combined force. With the egos in all these companies are placed in consideration, chances are this is not going to happen. But a YHOO and MSFT team-up or MSFT acquires YHOO, Google would be in a serious predicament. One can hope.

the_nerd

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 11:00 am on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

I see Google making big increases in market share in the next six months.

The only thing that I see is that many people waste their precious time making predictions that tend to be
a) wrong
b) irrelevant if right.

I still remember the pros discussing how there would be a "new deal" after yahoo bought 2 other decaying search engines. Well, I'm still very impressed by the outcome.

This time we don't even see anything close to this, just an obscure spin wizard diagnosing a 1% drop in market share. Come on pals - have a look at your own stats - and then back to work - to increase your own market share.

nerd.

weeks

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 2:36 pm on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

G will be eating lunch AND dinner on this tiny tidbit for months to come. "Those concerns about controlling the web? Don't worry. See, this report explains how we're vulnerable."

Receptional

WebmasterWorld Administrator receptional us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 3:22 pm on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

I think their indication will be proved right. I think other indicators will start to reinforce this. The quality of the competition's products - especially search - are developing apace and I think Googke is trying to diversify in so many different ways at once that they might start to lose the hearts and minds battle.

Vincevincevine:
I see Google making big increases in market share in the next six months.

This I see as less likely.
But as Techrealm says... we'll see in six months. That'll be Christmas and we'll all have good ROI data across the big three (in PPC, that'll be the first time we've had all three). The ROI data will start to shape the market share - as will vista and live.com of course.

Chico_Loco

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 5:28 pm on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Google just signed up a deal for MySpace search traffic. They are the defaulty search engine in FireFox, which is leading browser and continuously growing.

Unless MSFT can start becoming proactive in forming these kinds of partnerships, then Google are not likely to lose a significant part of their marketshare.

The problem that Google has on the other hand is that the novelty of their brand is wearing off, and they have not seen much success in the majority of their other projects (no matter what the "coolness factor" of them may be.)

For now, the strategy to be Google should be for MSFT to provide an AdSense type system to webmasters that pays significantly more, and even that would be a very tough job.

Webmasters made Google, period. Before we see significant market diversification, webmasters need to start promoting other search services, period. Until there is something as attractive as Google to promote, then that's not likely, period.

gregbo

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 8:27 pm on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Google search is way too powerful and competitors are way too weak. An unhealthy market with arrogance and incompetence at either sides. Surfers and publishers need something better.

I don't think it is so much that the competitors are weak; it is that to google is to search. Humans are creatures of habit, generally speaking, so they won't switch to something else if they're satisfied with what they have. G is easy, convenient, and works well enough to satisfy most of the search-using population.

That said, there is not much room for anyone to significantly grow their market share (unless one of the others' businesses collapse). MS may pick up some share with Vista.

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 9:01 pm on Aug 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Google search is way too powerful and competitors are way too weak.

The free market says otherwise, which is another way of saying that users have cast their votes in a democratic election, and a majority of those votes have gone to Google.

If it's any consolation, Google has less dominance in the search industry than some other brands have in their industries. For example, Frito-Lay has 80% of the corn-chip market and a 60% share of the entire "salty snack" market in the U.S., compared to a single-digit market share for its nearest competitor. (I wonder how many people in the "salty snacks" business spend their time railing against Fritos and Lay's Potato Chips on snack-food forums?)

percentages

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 6:03 am on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

Search is search, and not a market to base any business model on IMHO!

To grow Ask.com (which has definitely happened recently) all you need to do is a little advertising and sponsorship of an NBC TV show.

All that says to me is that the conqueror of search will be anyone who wants to buy it! Forget the quality of results (that's a geek thing), most search users are sheep and are pushed by the dogs of advertising.

20% of my clients have switched to Ask.com in the last 2 months. Their demographic is independent business people, they switched because of "Treasure Hunters".

Search is a very fickle market, it isn't cola, it isn't chips, it is very fickle and "free" to switch at a whim!

Goog is way overpriced and will crash and burn as soon as MSFT decide to buy the market. 3 years ago I predicted MSFT would "buy the market" within 12 months......so I guess I will now predict they will buy the market within 3 years....LOL!

The timing makes no sense to me, the overall outcome is however inevitable!

trillianjedi

WebmasterWorld Senior Member trillianjedi us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 12:05 pm on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

20% of my clients have switched

Looking at my stats, I would say they're the exception rather than the norm.

I suspect Googles market share is actually up, not down. I have not yet seen any valid reason for it to slow down versus the competition.

Goog is way overpriced and will crash and burn as soon as MSFT decide to buy the market.

Money versus brand is not an easy battle. Brand is so so powerful.

TJ

kaz

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 12:43 pm on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

Google Tops Out According to Comscore

... actually this was not according to Comscore ... but instead according to ...

Bear Stearns & Co. Inc. analyst Robert Peck

Come on - its one thing to misinterpret stats and skew them for a front page story, but perhaps we should all be clear this is 1 analyst who made this statement. this thread is a waste and I couldn't care what Mr Peck says about this. His statement is a bit irresponsible, imo.

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 2:55 pm on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

Goog is way overpriced and will crash and burn as soon as MSFT decide to buy the market.

Microsoft spent hundreds of millions of dollars to topple AOL with MSN back in the 1990s, when AOL and MSN were proprietary online services.

MSN didn't succeed in nibbling more than a snack-size portion of the online-services market even when the MSN icon was on the Windows 95 desktop.

Brands and user habits carry weight in the online market, just as they do in the "salted snacks" market.

jtara

WebmasterWorld Senior Member jtara us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 5:10 pm on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

this thread is a waste and I couldn't care what Mr Peck says about this.

Perhaps YOU don't care.

But it's pretty unusual for a firm such as Bear, Stearns to be so negative in it's analysis. The tradition on Wall Street has been "if you don't have anything good to say, don't say it".

When they say something this negative, it is significant.

I'd like to see the full analyst's report, though.

shorebreak

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 9:10 pm on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

We should all band together and create an obligatory WebmasterWorld survey asking what % of search traffic comes from which search engine. If everyone here responds I'll bet we come up with the best, most convincing sample of all time.

I'll go last, though.

-Shorebreak

Brett_Tabke

WebmasterWorld Administrator brett_tabke us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 9:23 pm on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

We do about once-a-quarter in the supporters forum shorebreak...

Any side bets about the next months stats? ;-) Bet they go back up and keep going back up until the end of the year? ya...pretty safe money.

gregbo

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 10:18 pm on Aug 21, 2006 (gmt 0)

All that says to me is that the conqueror of search will be anyone who wants to buy it! Forget the quality of results (that's a geek thing), most search users are sheep and are pushed by the dogs of advertising.

There is more truth to your words than you realize. However, the buyer must buy Google, not its audience.

kaz

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 3:53 pm on Aug 22, 2006 (gmt 0)

Perhaps YOU don't care.

But it's pretty unusual for a firm such as Bear, Stearns to be so negative in it's analysis. The tradition on Wall Street has been "if you don't have anything good to say, don't say it".

When they say something this negative, it is significant.

I'd like to see the full analyst's report, though.

Sure, and I agree its not fair to say without reading the full report. But Google and Wall Street in the same sentence says enough. There is a history there as well.

Now, if it was Bambi who was reporting this .... that would be a different story probably ;)

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 7:40 pm on Aug 22, 2006 (gmt 0)

Well, my post disappeared, so I'll just say that a search expert whose initials also mean "Detective Sergeant" isn't giving any importance to a one-month Comscore miniblip, and he also points out that Hitwise shows an INCREASE in Google's U.S. market share during July.

percentages

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 6:52 am on Aug 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

>Money versus brand is not an easy battle. Brand is so so powerful.

Back track a step, and ask why brand is so "Powerful" ..... opps...because money made it that way!

MSFT has the OS market and the browser market, it has the money, it controls the "general" users. I really like Ask's attempt to make a hole in its amour, but, realistically it is a war of nonsense.

In my view MS has won the war already, but, is afraid to admit it for being persecuted as a predator in the USA and Europe. The only downside to MS is being too successful.....now how do you balance that?

Powdork

WebmasterWorld Senior Member powdork us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 3053131 posted 9:44 am on Aug 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

and they have not seen much success in the majority of their other projects (no matter what the "coolness factor" of them may be.)

Adwords-Market Leader
Adsense-Market Leader
Enterprise Search-market leader
gmail-growing penetration
News-Market Leader
Maps-I can't watch the local news without seeing Google Maps used at least twice.
IPO-Very successful

and on the down side
Web Accellerator
Froogle
Print (maybe)

I think they've done pretty well.

[edited by: Powdork at 9:45 am (utc) on Aug. 24, 2006]

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