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Have we Reach a Google AdSense Advertising Bubble Peak?

 7:58 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Have we reached a peak in this market with the like of YPN, future MSN and others expanding into this area. Will publisher revenue decrease or continue to rise? What are your thoughts on the future of contextual advertising.

Is Google Adsense here to stay for a long time, or will another advertising medium evolve?


Blue Gravity

 8:06 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Unless there is another giant crash in the market, and advertisers can't allocate large sums of money for marketing, then no, it won't burst. If anything, I think it will continue to increase. Perhaps not at such a rapid pace, but with the launch of Yahoo's and MSN's versions of AdSense the competition will be fierce amongst those networks, and hopefully give us publishers great payouts. Or maybe that's just wishful thinking ;)


 8:10 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Well the future is unpredictable..

But text advertising appears to be working quite well compared to banner advertising for instance; So I think AdSense will continue to exist for quite a while. And if it slowly stops then there will always be other ways to generate revenue.

Tropical Island

 8:16 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Since we started in 1999 I have used the formula that there will be major changes (evolutions) in Internet marketing & search at least every 6 months.

You have to be ready to adapt or you will be left in the dust.

The new changes with AdWords are unsettling for us however we will roll with the problem.

It is not likely that Yahoo will be a factor in the near future. They are so disorganised and incompetent that it will be later rather than sooner (if ever) that they will be a threat to AdSense. See [webmasterworld.com...] .

MSN - no news is bad news. As we say in Spanish - Vamos a ver. We'll see.

I think for the foreseeable future AS will dominate - but then who knows?


 8:24 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

But text advertising appears to be working quite well compared to banner advertising for instance; So I think AdSense will continue to exist for quite a while. And if it slowly stops then there will always be other ways to generate revenue.

Plus, AdSense is more than text ads--it's also a platform for distributing run-of-network and site-targeted display ads.

We're still in version 1.x of AdSense; there's a lot of room for expansion and improvement.

Undead Hunter

 8:28 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Let's not forget there's billions of dollars in TV and newspaper advertising that is eventually going to make its way to Google and similar networks. People want to know exactly where their money is going, and measure its effectiveness. This is a great medium for that.

I don't see things cap until about 2010 in terms of market growth. The next 2-3 years will tell more. But in general this is still a very, very new medium.


 8:28 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

The strength of "long tail" marketing is that there will always be millions of small businesses that will find it worthwhile to use adsense, etc.

Undead Hunter

 8:43 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Good point Longen - think 10, 15 years from now when the current generation of teens growing up with cell phones and wireless this and that start running local businesses - I think you'll see local contextual advertising explode then. Right now, even 8-10 years after the big companies started online, a large majority of small businesses don't even have a one-page website.


 9:11 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

i think publishers share will increase.But weak publishers will be swept.


 10:54 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Excellent thread - I'm thinking AdSense will be around for quite a while. You have to admit Google has pulled off a major coup since banner and aff. ads barely pay small sites unless you have huge traffic numbers. Google has tapped a previously unknown market of small publishers, advertisers, brought everyone together and based on their brand name, everyone comes out feeling like they won something. My worry is what will happen when Google stock starts to take a downturn which is bound to happen eventually. How will the powers that be at HQ react, what will they cut and by how much. For the moment, Google is the leader in context ads and will certainly continue to be for at least another couple years having the jump on most other providers. Time will tell but I don't think we have to worry just yet.


 11:05 pm on Aug 25, 2005 (gmt 0)

Have we reached the peak?

We haven't even reached the foothills, but we can see them in the distance :)

Big ad programs like Adsense have a bright future for years to come.

Small niche market targeted programs similar to Adsense offer a brighter future for those who can pull it off and really understand niche marketing, which I don't think Google really does.


 10:04 am on Aug 26, 2005 (gmt 0)

With internet penetration rapidly increasing in developing countries we are still very far from the peak.


 10:08 am on Aug 26, 2005 (gmt 0)

I agree with the majority here - we are nowhere near the peak.

The internet and eCommerce is in it's infancy.

I don't think we've even scratched the surface yet. I can quite reasonably see a point where the internet overtakes traditional media.

will another advertising medium evolve?

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind about that whatsoever. And it won't be web based, but it will be internet based.



 11:22 am on Aug 26, 2005 (gmt 0)

I feel that at every peak, google has the ability to re-direct their forces ( including the force called - asense publishers ) to any new advert method on the net.

If it is text links today, it could be giant flash ads with voice and video tomorrow, or maybe push adverting methods, (with superb broadband in future), and i am sure, with time is ripe, adsense would go that way also.

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