I'd hazard a bet that most of the smaller webmasters have been using CJ type programs to supplement their incomes. CJ and a bunch of networks convinced webmasters and advertisers that they did not have to pay... unless they got paid.
Adsense is changing the game. With a broader audience for text ads through google, will one see a significant deterioration in CJ and affiliate program advertisements?
Will advertisers scale back on the advertisements shown on Google content sites?
The last few days have been good .. how about some discussion on where this may be headed?
At least on my site, my good affiliate programs are in no danger of disappearing to be replaced by Google AdSense. AdSense is a nice, supplemental thing to have on a site, but you really can make more on a CPA basis if you're selling the right kind of things.
That said, for certain things, it is quite possible that CPC may indeed supplant CPA. These things could be where there are low commissions or where the affiliate programs are poor converting.
Like everything, really depends on your site, what you sell and how you present the information. On my site, I've plugged in the AdSense ads into content areas of my site, not the shopping areas (for obvious reasons). And I've been happy with the results so far, too, but also happy with affiliate sales, too.
I've historically done very badly with affiliate sales, as they're very US focussed. Now doing much better with adsense as their are a fair number of advertisers, some small businesses and some fairly large corporations targetting users from where I'm based and particularly in my niche (expatriate and parenting) niche.
I think it depends on the subject. If you've got an information site that deals with Fabergé eggs, you may not have access to good affiliate programs that relate to your topic. You've probably been running Amazon links and not much else. AdSense will now make it possible for you to run ads for dealers who sell Fabergé eggs, companies that manufacture display cases for Fabergé eggs, vendors who sell "I swapped my Mercedes for a Fabergé egg" bumper stickers, and so on.