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How many times does smart pricing strike
does lightning strike the same place twice?
petra

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:53 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

I was hit by smart pricing 2 months ago and now I'm facing a re-surgence to the good ol days. Just wondering if I will be hit by it (smart pricing) again.

 

creepychris

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 4:13 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

Time will tell. But I think I have seen smart pricing swings. There is so much that is hidden by Google's secretive ways that I really can't say but I seem to keep swinging between 2 average CPM of X and 0.6X. I'll go for a couple of months at X and a then overnight it changes and I'm at 0.6X for a few months. It's depressing when it happens, but I do all of my planning as though I were going to get 0.6X from adsense and then when I get the better rate it's gravy. Since last April (when smart pricing was introduced, I have swung back and forth 3 times (3 times at low rate and three times at high rate) and now I'm back at low again.

Are these swings seasonal? I don't think so because they are so abrupt. Overnight 40% of revenue evaporates. Of course there are also seasonal changes but they tend to be slower drifts.

creepychris

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 4:16 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

Oh. I have found that there has been sudden upswings after adding a bunch of new content. Perhaps, that can cause smart pricing to adjust. Something to think about if you are on a smart pricing low.

ken_b

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ken_b us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 4:45 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

I've wondered how often Smart Pricing updates, or what kind of schedule, if any, it works on.

Haven't found an answer yet.

hunderdown

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 4:56 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

I think I've seen people post that it updates weekly.

oddsod

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 5:58 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

I think I've seen people post that it updates weekly.

How would they be able to tell that?

hunderdown

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 6:22 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

How would they be able to tell? Well, maybe their traffic, impressions, etc. are very stable and they see a recurring pattern of changes in EPC every Tuesday.

But I think it is clear that it's updated pretty frequently, though not, say, hourly. And when it updates, it doesn't necessarily cause changes to everyone's EPC, so you may not notice an update.

I tend to focus on bringing up the CTR on low-performing channels (relative to my site's average), and if I can't, changing to different ads. I can't do anything about smart pricing, but I can work on CTR.

[added] And I'm sorry, I don't remember where I read that.

[edited by: hunderdown at 6:29 pm (utc) on April 7, 2005]

wonderboy

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 6:27 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

Swings are regular on one of my channels, 1 day out of last week claimed 1/4 of normal EPC, the rest of the days was all within 10 cents of the average.
Maybe disgruntled Google employee (Not sure there are many of these) is claiming 3/4 of my earnings on that specified day ;)

W.

oddsod

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 6:28 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

I'd much appreciate if you could link me to the thread.

Even stable traffic changes in quality from day to day. Advertisers could come in on Tuesdays and exit on Fridays. The variables are many. It would be interesting to see what was actually said.

ownerrim

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 6:33 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

my epc swings from week to week. but---when the month's over, earnings are about the same, if not slightly better. However...I do find that I keep adding quite a bit of new and unique content and only get minimal returns. Makes me wonder what would happen if I stopped adding new content

novice

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 6:42 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

It may not be based on a time period. It could be based on clicks.

After you get a pre-determined amount of clicks, your page is evaluated. If you got more conversions than the last evaluatuion your EPC goes up. If you got less conversions, your EPC goes down. The same conversion rate, your EPC remains the same.

I realize that there may be many variables, and that many advertisers don't use tracking. But it is posible.

fearlessrick

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 11:56 pm on Apr 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

I think novice is right, because every time I add new pages, I get a very good day, then the next few days are the pits. It's like working harder to make less... somewhat depressing at times, like today... new high in earnings yesterday, and today, more clicks, less revenue.

I do wish they would just let it be and give us hard-working publishers a break. There's no good reason why our earnings per click should go down just because we are getting more clicks, which seems to be the arrangement in my case, anyway.

That said, I've devoted myself to my site and I figure, OK, if I need XXXXX number of clicks to make a decent living at XXX per click, so be it. If the cost per click ever goes up (hint, hint, a nickel is too low), I'll be very happy.

Chris_H

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 2:28 am on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

Yeah, I dislike it too. Check this out...

Yesterday I had XXX clicks with earnings of $XX. A satisfactory day.

However, due to a good day in the SERPS today I had double yesterday's clicks (500+), but earnings were ony a couple of dollars more than yesterday. Thanks a bunch, Smart Pricing. Not very smart at all.

JohnKelly

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:15 am on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

I'm not sure about SmartPricing but my EPC has taken a dive this week. Brutal.

I develop content only to make *less* than what I did before adding the content. AdSense is no longer providing the incentive it used to.

sonny

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:19 am on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

I wonder if anyone complained to Google about lower earnings and then saw there epc go up. "Squeaky wheel gets oiled"

ownerrim

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:59 am on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

"I develop content only to make *less* than what I did before adding the content. AdSense is no longer providing the incentive it used to."

This is why I am very hesitant to add adsense to any of the other sites I am developing. I don't want to take the risk that some screwy smart pricing calculation will inappropriately "reward me" for bringing new content into the adsense network. In other words, I am content to leave ads off my new sites till yahoo is in operation.

birdstuff

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 12:40 pm on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

I believe that Google will either make some serious changes to "smart pricing" or drop it altogether when the serious competition arrives. If not, their overwhelming lead in the number of publishers will blow away with the wind.

Their lead is going to fade by quite bit anyway by default, but smart pricing will push them over the edge of the cliff if they keep the status quo. They are already losing a lot of publishers and some great sites from the network even without any real contextual advertising competition.

You can't do reliable statistical analyes on woefully incomplete data. But they do try...

leveldisc

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 12:58 pm on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

Its a strange one.

They obviously need a balance between keeping advertisers and publishers happy, but this seems weighted towards the advertiser.

I've just swapped to espotting after being hit and earnings are back up. Its the same advertisers at the top with both adsense and espotting and from what I can tell the top bids are roughly the same on each.

So you have to assume the advertisers are happy to pay those prices. And as a publisher I'm happy to receive my cut. So we're both happy. So why mess with it?

zjacob



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 2:39 pm on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

Given that this is the no.1 forum for webmasters/publishers, and that the posts defending "Smart Pricing" feature on Adsense are few and far between, it seems to me that all Y! needs to do to get a major share of this market is to provide a static percentage share for publishers and no smart pricing-type of feature.

hunderdown

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:14 pm on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

If Y! tries that they may make the publishers happy, but have a hard time luring advertisers away from Google....

wrightee

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:20 pm on Apr 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

Something's playing with my site this week too - up and down daily, traffic, content, traffic source all the same - but a daily variance of +/- 50% epc.

Maybe we should build an anonymous aggregate avg epc tracker in a secret dark corner of the Internet just for kicks and emotional support...

GerBot

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:10 pm on Apr 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

Maybe we should build an anonymous aggregate avg epc tracker in a secret dark corner of the Internet just for kicks and emotional support

I like this idea wrightee

It's stop all the posts about my EPC/CPM went up down today.
Anyone notice a drop in Adsense EPC today?
etc

it would never be perfect but might highlight changes in the adsense algo

sailorjwd

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:28 pm on Apr 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

I wonder if the new Budget Optimizer in Adwords is having an effect on our EPC...

I've used it and there are a few quirks/bugs in it and maybe these are carrying over to EPC we see.

One thing I notice is that if you don't give it a high enough max bid then most, if not all, bids get set to .05. Same things happens if you don't give it a lot of room with the max monthly spend - I bet folks are a little scared of setting a high monthly spend in a new feature since most folks are used to setting a daily spend.

petra

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 4:05 pm on Apr 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

I believe that Google will either make some serious changes to "smart pricing" or drop it altogether when the serious competition arrives. If not, their overwhelming lead in the number of publishers will blow away with the wind.

Doubt it. When competition arrives they'll be as stringent if not more with smart pricing (they'll probably call it smarter pricing lol) The reason for that is that the adsense program or its yahoo/msn equivilent is funded by the adwords program so if yahoo/msn are lax with smart pricing they might get more publishers but they'll lose their advertisers to google thereby eventually killing off their publisher program.

birdstuff

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 1:10 pm on Apr 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

Doubt it. When competition arrives they'll be as stringent if not more with smart pricing (they'll probably call it smarter pricing lol) The reason for that is that the adsense program or its yahoo/msn equivilent is funded by the adwords program so if yahoo/msn are lax with smart pricing they might get more publishers but they'll lose their advertisers to google thereby eventually killing off their publisher program.

Doubt it. There is simply no statistical way to accurately predict the liklihood that a given page will convert based upon conversion data, especially when it's so incomplete as it is right now. There are simply too many variables between sites in the same category to accurately extrapolate conversion data from one site to another.

That's why Google is losing so many great sites and publishers from the program because "smart pricing" is driving them to other revenue streams.

The competition will learn from Google's mistakes and do better by placing "smart pricing" where it belongs - in the hands of the advertiser. I hope Google eventually does the same.

web_india

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 3:16 pm on Apr 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

JohnKelly and ownerrim,

I develop content only to make *less* than what I did before adding the content. AdSense is no longer providing the incentive it used to.

This is why I am very hesitant to add adsense to any of the other sites I am developing. I don't want to take the risk that some screwy smart pricing calculation will inappropriately "reward me" for bringing new content into the adsense network. In other words, I am content to leave ads off my new sites till yahoo is in operation.

This is also true for one of main site. Adding content is giving no incentive at all. In fact, I've been adding very less content in the last 4-6 weeks to the site and my earnings have almost remained same.

However, I've also noted that before 15th Feb., I was getting rewarded for adding new content but in the couple of weeks to follow, I didn't see any benefit of adding the new content and reduced it to fewer changes (added very less content in March). I didn't see any major change in my earnings. I know it varies widely from site to site but can you relate to it?

Is it smart pricing at work where they decide that for one month (or a specific period) they would reward content addition and for the alternate month (or period) they would not? Do we have a pattern here?

hunderdown

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 5:26 pm on Apr 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

From the Google AdWords pages:

"Pay less for more results: Keep in mind that because of our AdWords Discounter and dynamic ranking system based on various factors such as CTR, CPC, and ad text, your actual cost-per-click (what you actually pay per click) is often less than your maximum CPC (what you are willing to spend per click) and often decreases when your ad starts to perform better."

Just wanted to throw that into the thread. Elsewhere, Google does define Smart Pricing as being tied to conversions, but here they are clearly stating that discounts can come from various directions--including some that are entirely out of our control (ad text, most notably).

max_mm

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 5:30 pm on Apr 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

Doubt it. When competition arrives they'll be as stringent if not more with smart pricing (they'll probably call it smarter pricing lol) The reason for that is that the adsense program or its yahoo/msn equivilent is funded by the adwords program so if yahoo/msn are lax with smart pricing they might get more publishers but they'll lose their advertisers to google thereby eventually killing off their publisher program.

Wrong. whichever network able to achieve maximum exposure in the shortest amount of time will get or retain the lion share of advertisers.

It is a simple formula, the more impressions the better the response. And I am talking about the small “Ads by…” link available above the ad panels. I estimate at least 40-60% of advertisers were acquired/introduced to the Adwords system via those links.

This massive recruiting channel (over millions upon millions of web pages) often goe’s unnoticed. Don’t underestimate it, the big guns will still need to fight over our ad space and the chance to display their "new advertisers recruiting", “Ads by…” links. Only god knows (and google) how many new advertisers sign up every day via these links.

hunderdown

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 6:34 pm on Apr 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

Very good point, max_mm. New networks will have a lot of catching up to do with the advantage Google has developed....

Freedom

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 6027 posted 7:23 pm on Apr 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

All of the Search Engines are facing one problem: Limited advertising space on their SERPS. You can only sell so many ads on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc., SERP pages.

That means future growth is tied to 2 things. New markets (China, Korea, GoogleBay) and 3rd party websites, you the publisher.

The battle to attract publishers has not come yet. But it will. Yahoo has announced their intention to get into the ring and it's only a matter of time before MSN buys up somebody like AdSonar and runs with it.

In order to bring more advertisers into the contextual fold, Google is making short term sacrifices (Smart Pricing, Discounting) on the back of the publisher in the hopes of long term gains by attracting more advertising dollars.

These short term gains at publishers expense will have negative long term consequences. I've always been an AdSense/Google defender and optimist, but I am also a realist and I have to call it like I see it:

The wild fluctuations in EPC/CPM, lack of publisher quality control (scrapers) and the two steps forward, two steps backwards game in the growth department is alienating a lot of quality publishers.

The protests are getting louder and louder here and it's not just coming from the conspiracy theorists, Google haters, greenhorns and crackpots. But let me join that group with this statement:

Does Google really take less money when I take less money on Smart Pricing? I don't know but I am starting to doubt it. There's too much fluctuation for it to make sense and be fair.

Although the battle for Publishers is not here, it will definitely come. And when it does, Google will have alienated their best publishers by that time if they keep making concessions to advertisers at the publishers expense.

I want both advertisers and Google to get a good deal when they run their ads on all my sites.

HOWEVER

Google has to find a better balance between incentives for publishers and a good deal for advertisers. What they've got now is not working and dragging the program down.

Freedom

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