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Very bad two days
Anyone else noticing a decline in earnings and poor targeting?
max_mm




msg:1402093
 7:40 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

AdWords Related thread: [webmasterworld.com...]


Just wondering if Anyone else noticing a sharp decline in overhaul Adsense performance.

Jan was my record month with earnings well into three figures per day.
I am notice a sharp decline on all fronts since the beginning of Feb.

Page impressions are right on daily average target (+-5%) while CTR is down by approx 1.2% and “effective CPM” is down by almost 40%.

I have a network of sites (7 sites) on a wide range of topics. The traffic on the sites hasn’t changed much since the begining of Feb +- same number of daily viewers across the network , while earnings continue to slide daily (adsense alone, other aff products i have linked continue to sell well).

I did notice very poor ad targeting on a few pages recently. Pages which used to display very good targeted ads and this may explain the bad CTR and “effective CPM”.

Is there any major adsense update going on?….anyone else noticing this happening since the start of Feb?

P.S.
I did not update any of my content recently to warrent such update.

 

valeyard




msg:1402094
 7:55 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

My figures have done almost exactly the same as yours in percentage terms. I'm not worrying yet, AdSense income does fluctuate wildly.

I'm hoping it's a somewhat worse than usual month-end. Advertisers' January budgets ran out and they haven't got round to restarting their campaigns for Feb.

If it continues like this past the weekend it'll be more than a statistical fluke and I'll start getting worried then.

darkmage




msg:1402095
 8:14 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

I will pre-empt this with 'it's early days' so please don't read too much into this....

I have started seeing reports around the web of double-hits. A much lower eCPM from Adsense and from lunchtime on Feb 2, Google seems to be have adjusted its algo and some sites are plummeting in traffic. A few have reported an increase in traffic. The net effect is income for the affected sites is about 20% of what it was. Now that's a hit.

I had two people comment on the same following event with Adsense earnings. Early Feb 1st morning stats were normal and tracking as per Jan, but then they turned south about lunchtime and have rested at a new lower level in the short time since. Normally I would ignore this - and still am skeptical - but to see the same pattern with two different-topic sites is interesting. The only pity is, we can't see hourly traffic.

Macro




msg:1402096
 8:25 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

Feb 1st was a pretty good day for me, one of my highest ever.

But after a more careful analysis of various stats - something unusual seems to have happened/is happening. I'm going to keep a closer eye over the next few days.

Jenstar




msg:1402097
 8:48 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

One thing about AdSense stats, when someone reports a disasterous day, someone else can pipe up to report a record earnings day. There are just so many fluctuations, particularly since the advertiser (and his or her pocketbook) makes up a large part of the puzzle. Smart pricing is another piece you can add to the puzzle.

I've had a huge drop in CPM, although some (but unfortunately, not all) of it is a result of higher-than-average page views on a low CTR site. But I am sure that someone else can state they are having record CPM levels ;)

Targeting seems to be spot-on though, so I am not having those issues. But I have always had excellent targeting of ads.

yoyo8




msg:1402098
 8:58 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

I also noticed this. Targetting is pretty awful so I can understand why CPM has tanked. This has happened on and off for me since as long as I can remember.

icedowl




msg:1402099
 9:17 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

I'm seeing that CTR has taken a real nose dive, taking everything except the impressions down with it. Impressions are normal to slightly elevated. Sad.

max_mm




msg:1402100
 9:21 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)


But I have always had excellent targeting of ads.

Me too on 99% of my pages. Hence my dismay to suddenly see ads for “web templates” "Banners design" or “dog” info related on a stock market content site where it used to display ads for stockbrokers and other stocmarket related widgets.

Something is really off last couple of days (and I’ve been with google for well over a year and well aware of the often up and downs but I have never seen such poor performance). I’ll give it another couple of days and see how we go. Might write to google if the poor targeting continues.

ownerrim




msg:1402101
 9:25 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

this is also noted on this thread:

[webmasterworld.com...]

misery loves company i guess

ownerrim




msg:1402102
 9:38 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

I just re-read this thread after linking the other thread. This does seem to be a little different than the typical whiny complaint about epc---more systemic in nature and more aggregious regarding epc slump. And, after checking my own site, I see that targeting is not where it was monday.

Freedom




msg:1402103
 9:38 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

First, let me say that I usually don't like to join in on "My CTR/EPC is down" threads as a me too poster.

However, since there was such a significant drop yesterday, I have to post my experience as well.

My CTR is 1.5 percent down from the YTD average. The CPM, of course, is down as well by 40 percent.

I see that yesterday's stats are growing slowly since it hit Midnight in California now that it is about 1.5 hours later, however it's not "catching" up very fast.

Something seriously changed yesterday.

However, in spite of all this, I can't bring myself to point a finger at Google or feel very negative about this for several reasons:

1. Adsense earnings do fluctuate wildly and in the past, it has always corrected itself.
2. Google doesn't "owe me" anything and I can't get into that mind set.
3. My earnings yesterday are still strong and respectable despite a 1/3 drop and would be the envy of many a webmaster.

I think the best solution to days like this is to count my blessings, improve income diversification and continue working to improve my websites.

Macro




msg:1402104
 9:49 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

>> First, let me say that I usually don't like to join in on "My CTR/EPC is down" threads

Me neither.

One site that has remained quite consistent over a fairly large period of time has dropped by a quite drastic amount. That is being compensated for elsewhere. For now.

I aim to look in more detail at what could be causing this. It may prove to be a learning experience that ends up making me more money :). The fact that SERPs seem to be changing as well - and page impressions are at weekend levels - doesn't make the analysis any easier (especially when you have thousands of pages featuring in SERPs for a lot of varied terms).

esllou




msg:1402105
 10:59 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

my site that has had constant x earnings for 18 months went to 1/2 x yesterday...just like that!

impressions normal, ctr just about normal, cpc through the floor.

killroy




msg:1402106
 11:16 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

Just to even the scales, in these past 3 days, my income has trippled, almost returning to the "good old days" levels... Just to keep things in perspective...

SN

Galtego




msg:1402107
 11:24 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

Studying my site log, I can see that my AdSense performance problem is related to the Google search problem being discussed now in [webmasterworld.com...]

Freedom




msg:1402108
 11:46 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

Well my CTR is down 1.5 percent which can't be explained by anything other then bad ad targeting or something to do with adsense.

By the same token, traffic is down by 25 percent at one website that was high traffic/high earner.

Macro




msg:1402109
 11:57 am on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

>>in these past 3 days, my income has trippled

I know, I've got that on one channel too. It only adds to the reasoning that something has changed quite sharply.

The clue is in identifying what differentiates those channels/accounts that have dropped from those that are seeing a jump.

We do need to protect against false stats....

>> Well my CTR is down 1.5 percent
A real 1.5% drop wouldn't phase me in the least. However, a drop from 2% CTR to 0.5% CTR is not a 1.5% drop. If you mean that it's gone down by 1.5 points it's still meaningless. A drop from 50% CTR to 48.5% isn't half as alarming as a drop from 1.5% to 0%.

Freedom




msg:1402110
 12:10 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

Sorry I didn't clarify. The 1.5 is from the daily average CTR based on 100. I won't say what the percentage that 1.5 truly represents is now because that will give away my CTR, but it's a chunk.

A big chunk.

Galtego




msg:1402111
 1:04 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

My Google traffic has shifted largely to Google Image searches. When this happened before, as now, my CTR has dropped. Google Image searches are after the pictures, so text links (like AdSense) suffer.

ownerrim




msg:1402112
 1:10 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

"First, let me say that I usually don't like to join in on "My CTR/EPC is down" threads as a me too poster."

Sometimes, this sort of thread is wholly validated. Many of the posts in this one, for instance, are from long-time WebmasterWorld users---presumably operating in different content areas---who have all noted (with the exception of killroy)an anomaly occurring at approximately the same time: epc declines of typically 50%.

jenkers




msg:1402113
 2:14 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

same here...ctr only down a little from the norm, traffic a little lower than the norm but eCPM down 40%(ish) for the last 2 days. If it goes on for more than the rest of the week I will start to get worried...

BwanaZulia




msg:1402114
 2:39 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

Down the drain.

Traffic up.

Clicks same.

Earnings WAY DOWN. 1/4 of normal.

CPM 1/4 of Jan.

Damn.

BZ

Freedom




msg:1402115
 2:57 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

Well, these things happen from time to time. The last major change was in April last year with smart pricing.

How many people think that after the quarterly report yesterday of 7 fold earnings, Google needs to get the money from somewhere to impress WallStreet next quarter?

Just a conspiracy theory type thought. Don't take it too serious.

Macro




msg:1402116
 2:57 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

BwanaZulia, the first time I took a big knock was at broadmatching - a long, long time ago. I recall then that I started a "woe is me" thread.

It was replies like yours - saying that you had no complaints - that got me thinking that I had to stop moaning and fix the "problem" at my end.

I did.

I was probably hoping you'd some here again and say that you had no complaints :)

I'm down but not by that much. Are you really down to 25% of normal figures? Ouch!

europeforvisitors




msg:1402117
 3:13 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

My CTR and CPM have been down a bit in the last couple of days, but not enough to be outside the normal "swing range."

howiejs




msg:1402118
 3:13 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

I think these threads are important - when everyone adds to them (not just the misery loves company)

I compared Tues (Feb 2) to the Tues (Jan 26)

Here are my results:

Traffic down around 10%
CTR down around 10%
EPCM down around 10%
Earnings down around 20%

The EMPC # doesn't bug me - things happen w/ advertiser budgets
The CTR number does bug me - as it has been the same forever.

This is across a dozen sites. With adsense a long time and my stats are typically really consistent / even.

It would be good if others could post the same analysis.

ve3cnu




msg:1402119
 3:14 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

I am also noticing poorly targeted ads resulting in poor CTR...therefore poor earnings since Feb.1

I have heard Google is doing a back-link update but that doesn't explain this.

I hope it is temporary.

Macro




msg:1402120
 3:20 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

EFV, I know what you mean. And that's what I thought when I posted msg #4 above (I have a range of sites on different topics and separate channels for all of them). But, there's something odd happening for sure. I just can't put my finger on it. Tomorrow, with the access to channel stats for 02/02 things may be a bit clearer.

Chico_Loco




msg:1402121
 3:32 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

This is probably due to the Google flux / update which is currently ongoing.

Apparently, a lot of sites were dropped from their Database - so perhaps it's because your traffic is down?

max_mm




msg:1402122
 3:42 pm on Feb 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

I'm starting to suspect a major google update.

I just noticed that two of my sites completely disappeared from the SERPs. They were there the last time i checked approx 8 hours ago. My log files indicting the same, sharp decrease in the number of hits to the two sites in the last few hours.

And here are the good news (hope i'm not jumping too early), i just checked my adsense account and noticed that "Effective CPM" is way up (almost 80% up from the last couple of days figures). CTR is back to normal 3.5 - 4%.

There is a major update happening. On the SERPs and on the adsense system.

This is what it looks like right now anyway.

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