Adsense reads the text on your page and attempts to match the topic as closely as possible with the ads available.
And there is the problem, what ads are available.
In part that depends on what ads advertizers ore running, and which words or phrases they are targeting.
On top of that, you may use words on your page that attract ads that are not really relevant to your topic, or advertizers may use very broad targeting.
You can of course keep changing the text on your page to see if you can attract the ads you want.
Then there is "Smart Pricing", which pretty much throws the whole mess up in the air as far as how much you are going to get paid.
The same ad may pay $2.00 on one site and only $.04 on another site. And of course, just because an ad shows as costing $10.00 for placement in the serps, there is no guarantee that it will even be available for content sites. Many advertizers opt out of content sites, or run the same ads with lower bids for content sites.
As far as I know, there really is no way to predict what you are going to get paid per click for any given word or term.