On the evidence that I have seen on this forum, it seems really to depend on a judgement call by Google as to whether they "want" you back in their program or not
EuropeforVisitors was accused (well loosely accused) of having fraudulent clicks, but appears to still be in the program after he contacted them
If you clearly broke their TOS, which apparently you did, then its up to them, having looked at your sites whether they want you (or not)
As far as one can gather, AdSense is going through a difficult birth, where Google is coming to grips with enforcing their TOS. In the end they will have to, IMO, reduce the number of publishers in order to be able to police the situation.
Its no doubt as hot in St Louis as it is in Cornwall today!