I don't know if I agree with this theory.
I have new sites whose CTR and visitors fluctuate wildly over the course of a month - but since I am using adsense on XX sites, I imagine the "big picture" comes into view.
Its not my fault if a site with 30 visitors per day has a 46% CTR (or whatever), as long as the content and site adhere to the Adsense guide lines.
Lots of the sites that resulted in "i got banned for fraudulent clicks" posts that I was able to see were purposely manipulating the Adsense keyword targeting in manner that violated TOS.
Fraudulent clicks doesn't necessarily mean that the webmaster clicked on his own adverts - it can also mean that the site violated the TOS in a such a way that the advertisers were defrauded.
* "CLICK ON THESE" by your ads.
* otherwise encouraging the visitors to click on your ads. there was an instance, one of the very first "kicked out" posts where the owner had posted things like "i hope everyone remembers to help support the forum by clicking on those adsense ads"
* keyword stuffing non-related phrases on the page, or otherwise manipulating adsense to influence the type of ads
* another guy got kicked because his offsite links opened a frameset with Adsense ad had populated the text in the frame with $XX keywords that no one could see except G.
Just don't try to game the system, and you should be fine. If your site only makes $.30 a day, consider:
- creating a new site with quality (lucrative) content
- increasing the traffic to your site through additional links, PPC, etc.
- look for an alternative to Adsense.