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How Long adsense will last?
How Long adsense will last?
articlescafe




msg:1436922
 3:46 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Does any one come across this in your mind before?

I am thinking to quit my job now and concentrate full time on adsense. But will it last for long? let's say 5 or 10 years?

what do you guys think?

 

anand84




msg:1436923
 3:55 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

I think Adsense&Adwords being the primary breadwinner for Google will not end as such. Maybe the format might change in tune with the times.

But, as you must have heard a thousand times here on WebmasterWorld, if you are a fulltimer, always keep your revenue coming from various sources. Adsense need not come to an end. May be you are banned for click fraud for no fault of yours.

rbacal




msg:1436924
 4:42 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

I'm telling people who want to jump on the Internet revenue train that it's more risky now than it has been in the last two years. Same for relying on the income.

Lots of reasons for that, most having to do with Google as a company but also, I think, we're probably moving towards a mini-bubble burst regarding advertiser money. It won't be as bad as the 99-2000 bust.

The problems are so wide ranging, from google's quasi-monopoly, having to rely on a very small number of sources for traffic over which one has little control, the opaque nature of search engine results and algos, the opaque nature of adsense, the deluge of spam websites, and on and on.

So, for people who have family and responsibilities and a current standard of living that values stability and material goods and needs, no, I don't think it's the time to give up a job, and rely solely on Internet revenue. One only has to read the stories on webmasterworld to identify that some people are experiencing a lot of serious dips on the roller-coaster.

You have to look carefully at things, when you can lose 90% of your traffic overnight, keep 100% of your fixed costs, and lose almost all your revenue. It's not just an issue of unpredictable adsense income. It's an issue of having limited control over traffic. So, the risks are associated with ANY reliance on the Internet.

rxbbx




msg:1436925
 4:45 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

I think you should always try to get a good mix of affiliates and adsense.. it's indeed risky that the biggest part comes from google.

europeforvisitors




msg:1436926
 4:48 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

AdSense and other text-ad networks aren't likely to go away soon, but they may change quite a bit. Consider:

- When AdSense was launched in June, 2003, many publishers regarded AdSense income as easy money--but when "smart pricing" discounts for advertisers were introduced 10 months later, some of those publishers saw big drops in their AdSense revenues.

- Google introduced site-targeted AdSense CPM ads and domain blocking for advertisers in 2005. Some publishers have profited from the changes, while others have been hurt.

- Google could easily introduce site-targeted CPC ads or contextual CPM ads. Either change could have a big impact on publishers. For example, site-targeted CPC ads would favor publishers whose sites are attractive to advertisers, and contextual CPM ads would hurt publishers who have been enhancing their pay-per-click earnings by using layout techniques that encourage clicks at the expense of advertiser conversions.

- Smart pricing could continue to evolve, helping some publishers and hurting others.

- Google could introduce a tiered system or other options that would make it easier for advertisers to be more selective about where their ads run (not unlike the direct-mail industry, where advertisers can buy anything from an "occupant" list to highly targeted lists). Like smart pricing, this would help some publishers and hurt others.

Online advertising is still in its infancy, compared to other advertising media, and we'll probably see a lot of changes in the next few years.

david_uk




msg:1436927
 5:01 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Obviously nobody knows the answer to this, and it's already been said here that Google will evolve. What direction that takes is anybody's guess.

I think the people most vulnerable to any change of wind direction are those who set out to try and make easy money out of Adsense. I'm obviously thinking of the millions of pages set up to funnel clicks through them and don't add anything to the web.

The web is all about easy access to information, and if your pages of information are what people are looking for and therefore have some value, then it's likely that these pages will remain easy to monetise effectively whatever the future holds.

MFA's and the like are always going to be with us in some shape or form, but at the end of the day they are the ones that will have to be on the ball 24/7 to see what direction the wind is blowing and make changes in order to survive.

rbacal




msg:1436928
 6:33 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

I think the people most vulnerable to any change of wind direction are those who set out to try and make easy money out of Adsense. I'm obviously thinking of the millions of pages set up to funnel clicks through them and don't add anything to the web.

The web is all about easy access to information, and if your pages of information are what people are looking for and therefore have some value, then it's likely that these pages will remain easy to monetise effectively whatever the future holds.

I'd like to believe all this is true. I think that in order for it to be true, google, and other search engines and ppc programs are going to have to change how they do things, both technologically and human wise.

Right now, it doesn't appear that they have the capability to address the junk in serps, google adsense, and on the advertiser side, adwords. Or the will. And without collateral damage to real sites.

The whole situation isn't sustainable right now. It has to change, and it hasn't changed for the better generally. I'm not sure it will, and when/if it does, the rollercoaster ride's going to continue.

Business wise, we're starting to migrate away from the net, beginning with the removal of adsense ads from selected sites, and planning to get non-Internet revenue streams back up and running.

europeforvisitors




msg:1436929
 7:11 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

The whole situation isn't sustainable right now. It has to change, and it hasn't changed for the better generally. I'm not sure it will, and when/if it does, the rollercoaster ride's going to continue.

AdSense reminds me of where affiliate marketing was a few years ago. When affiliate programs were first launched, they were conceived as a form of advertising. (Remember the early days when Amazon.com links were nearly as common as the "Ads by Google" box is today?) It wasn't long until "pure affiliate sites" became the tail that wagged the affiliate dog, and search results for any remotely commercial topic (such as "Elbonia travel" or "Hotel Whatsit") were cluttered with boilerplate datafeed pages.

Today, Google is doing a much better job of filtering boilerplate affiliate pages than it was a couple of years ago, and MFA sites (including million-plus-page "user review" sites owned by big corporations) have taken their place. As you say, the situation has to change. Here's one guess: Today's lowest-common-denominator, undifferentiated "content network" ads will be the equivalent of run-of-network banner ads a year or two from now, with minimal earnings per click for publishers whose content, audiences, or conversion rates aren't attractive to advertisers.

joftech




msg:1436930
 7:47 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Adsense future lies in the hand of Google. If Google kaput today that's the end of Adsense.But with the exuberance of its founders I hope that will never happen.

Letís hope that Google live as long as IBM.

My advice is that you make your sites an hobby, not a cash-cow; that way even without Google you can survive any storm.

Zygoot




msg:1436931
 7:57 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

One of the things I'd really like to see in the future is a contextual CPA program from CJ, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Yahoo or perhaps another company.

I see lots of potential for such a service and I wonder why no one has launched it yet. It shouldn't be too hard for lets say CJ to create such an affiliate program.

If you have a digital camera site you could add this service to your website, actively encourage users to click and buy through your links and earn a 5 percent commission. If the users buy a $300 digicam you earn $15, if the camera costs $500 you get $25. This sounds a lot better to me than earning 10-20 cents for clicks.

FourDegreez




msg:1436932
 8:09 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

My own thinking is that anything beyond 5 years from now is too unpredictable to forcast. I accept that I may have to go a different route in life 5 or more years out from now.

I don't think there will be an advertiser bubble burst though. Internet advertising will only increase, particularly with people turning away from newspapers, commercial radio, and even TV (or at least skipping the commercials with DVRs). The internet is still the next big thing for advertising, and in my opinion has not fully matured yet. The day you see the cola and burger wars playing out on the internet is the day internet advertising has reached its plateau. All television, newspaper, and radio ads are CPM and most are for branding purposes...this has not yet even hit the internet en masse.

My biggest worry is rich, streaming content from big players pushing aside the little guys. Once Hollywood decides to stop fighting the internet and embrace it, they're going to get the lion's share of advertising dollars. I do think there will always be a place for the little guy, but it could get tougher and as I said, who knows what will happen five years out from now.

gregbo




msg:1436933
 8:36 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

All television, newspaper, and radio ads are CPM and most are for branding purposes...this has not yet even hit the internet en masse.

Seems to me that banner ads, interstitials, and the like are used for branding purposes.

One thing to be concerned about is that end users get burned out on ads and stop clicking on them.

crick




msg:1436934
 8:51 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Worry about the present before contemplating what will happen in years from now. If you are worried that people may not be able to monetise their sites in years from now, you couldn't be more wrong. There is big tidal wave of advertising spend switching from traditional media to online.

crick




msg:1436935
 8:56 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Currently, online marketing only accounts for around 10% of all advertsing expenditure. Within the next 10 years, that figure will be around 50% if not more. The future is rosy. The people who are looking to make a living online now will benefit more than those who make a start in years to come.

Play_Bach




msg:1436936
 8:58 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

> One thing to be concerned about is that end users get burned out on ads and stop clicking on them.

I believe this is already beginning to be the case. The rampant rise of scraper sites and bogus AdSense ads that lead to bogus destinations is certainly taking it's toll on the credibility of the program. If more and more people see AdSense ads as just another "click trap" and stop clicking on them because they no longer trust the ads to take them somewhere good, it's not hard to imagine that the average publisher won't benefit as well in such a future either. Hope I'm wrong.

[edited by: Play_Bach at 9:13 pm (utc) on April 23, 2006]

hal12b




msg:1436937
 9:07 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

5, 10 years down the road? Who really cares. Do you give much thought to where you'll be in 5-10 years at your current job?

You could get hit by a bus tonight (hopefully not obviously)

New, great, and better things will come.

hunderdown




msg:1436938
 9:15 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Do you give much thought to where you'll be in 5-10 years at your current job?

If you don't, you should. Otherwise, you may still be in the same job, doing the same things, with no meaningful increase in salary....

The same applies to what you are doing with your web site(s), though with the pace of change on the web, you are probably better off looking one or two years down the road.

I have no idea what the future of AdSense will be, but I do know that if your plans for the future involve nothing more than more of the same, you may find yourself left behind.

europeforvisitors




msg:1436939
 9:25 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

My biggest worry is rich, streaming content from big players pushing aside the little guys. Once Hollywood decides to stop fighting the internet and embrace it, they're going to get the lion's share of advertising dollars. I do think there will always be a place for the little guy, but it could get tougher and as I said, who knows what will happen five years out from now.

In the offline advertising world, advertising dollars have been moving away from mass media for years, and budgets have increasingly been spent on sales promotion, direct marketing, niche media, etc. There's no reason to assume that the Web will reverse that trend, because the Web's great strength is the ability to target specific audiences (and even specific users, in some cases). You may see advertisers like Coke or Pepsi on portal home pages or on sites like MySpace.com, but if Canon is marketing a new DSLR camera, it will make more sense for Canon to target readers of enthusiast and professional camera sites (in much the same way as Canon buys ads for its higher-end equipment in magazines like POPULAR PHOTOGRAPHY or SHUTTERBUG right now).

The rampant rise of scraper sites and bogus AdSense ads that lead to bogus destinations is certainly taking it's toll on the credibility of the program. If more and more people see AdSense ads as just another "click trap" and stop clicking on them because they no longer trust the ads to take them somewhere good, it's not hard to imagine that the average publisher won't benefit as well in such a future either.

I think that's where the "trust factor" comes in. If your site has earned a reputation in its niche and attracts repeat visitors, those visitors may be more willing to click on AdSense ads than they would be on a site that doesn't inspire confidence. And the visitors who do click are more likely to be serious prospects for the advertisers than are users who click because they thought an AdSense ad was a navigation link or a directory link on a page of cloned DMOZ listings.

Trade and enthusiasm publications have long prospered by winning the trust of readers and delivering truly interested prospects to advertisers. There's no reason to believe that publishing on the Web doesn't (and won't continue to) work in much the same way.

gregbo




msg:1436940
 9:40 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Trade and enthusiasm publications have long prospered by winning the trust of readers and delivering truly interested prospects to advertisers. There's no reason to believe that publishing on the Web doesn't (and won't continue to) work in much the same way.

I agree; the question is will click fraud, MFA, index spam, etc. keep the medium from maturing.

Play_Bach




msg:1436941
 9:40 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

> I think that's where the "trust factor" comes in.

Exactly. The problem of bad ads and bad Web sites being allowed to participate in AdSense leads to an errosion of the very trustworthiness accross the program. I think most surfers already see AdSense ads as ads (regardless of those Web masters that try to disguise/blend them).

Now if from going to site to site and clicking on those ads becomes more and more of a crap shoot for the average user, then I'll go out on a limb and say that many will become wary (i.e., non-trusting) of AdSense ads period - they won't care what site they're on.

europeforvisitors




msg:1436942
 9:55 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

Now if from going to site to site and clicking on those ads becomes more and more of a crap shoot for the average user, then I'll go out on a limb and say that many will become wary (i.e., non-trusting) of AdSense ads period - they won't care what site they're on.

Maybe and maybe not. The Web has long been flooded with boilerplate affiliate sites that don't inspire confidence, but affiliate sales on relevant content sites are doing better than ever.

incrediBILL




msg:1436943
 10:09 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

How Long adsense will last?

Whether it's AdSense or not really doesn't matter.

The appropriate question is how long will online advertising last as I've been making money off various forms of online advertising for 10 years now and don't really see any end in sight unless there is a radical paradigm shift in how we use the internet.

I'd watch and see what happens to both radio and TV which have been mature advertiser sponsored media for ages, which have been fighting against subscription models (cable TV and satellite radio) and technology to skip ads (similar to ad blocking on the 'net) as the parallels are amazingly similar to what's happening on the 'net.

So far in radio and TV there appears to be enough to go around for everyone but something will give eventually, one or the other will dominate, and the new OnDemand service for TV is a clue which way the wind is blowing.

The question then becomes, if the advertising sponsored model on the internet falls to a subscription model, will all the advertising sponsored sites survive?

If you don't consider your site a bottom feeder living off AdSense scraps, that you provide a valuable service, then I think you'll survive no matter what.

Regardless of the outcome, the old cliche "all good things come to an end" will ultimately apply, it's just a matter of when.

Broadway




msg:1436944
 11:34 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

I agreee, whether Adsense is around or not is not much of a concern to me. There is too much money involved with the targeted nature of website advertising to expect that it will disappear. (I personally can only imagine that it will increase. I can also only imagine that as significant a source of income Adsense/Adwords is for Google they will always have some type advertising of product.)

My concerns and thoughts about the future are more along the lines of what will it be about my website that will allow it to continue to be a dominant player in its niche. How must I evolve as a webmaster, developing new types of content for my site, so it stays at the head of the pack.

jeepers




msg:1436945
 11:44 pm on Apr 23, 2006 (gmt 0)

There has always been a way for high quality sites to make money on the internet.

Some folks were able to cash in immediately with adsense because they had well established content sites.

I think that these same sites will be able to change quickly to any other revenue stream, if and when adsense expires.

My goal is to be one of them. I think it was EFV who first introduced me to the term 'evergreen content.' That's what I've been focusing on for the last six months. Highly original, useful, evergreen content, that just happens to correlate to adsense niches. If those niches dry up, I'm sure there will be other ways to profit from them.

toldan




msg:1436946
 12:25 am on Apr 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

Does any one come across this in your mind before?
I am thinking to quit my job now and concentrate full time on adsense. But will it last for long? let's say 5 or 10 years?

what do you guys think?

Hi, I quit my job in January and work from my home office full time.

Google Adsense will last as long as Google. And Google will never go bankrupt, it's stronger than Microsoft.

Cheers!

andrea99




msg:1436947
 12:54 am on Apr 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

If the price of oil happens to go up precipitously the cost of a trip across town to shop for things will get very expensive and more people will shop online...

AdSense, be there or be bear.

europeforvisitors




msg:1436948
 1:56 am on Apr 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

The question then becomes, if the advertising sponsored model on the internet falls to a subscription model, will all the advertising sponsored sites survive?

Most of the Web (or the Internet in general) isn't like cable TV. The Web is more like a library or a bookstore where you can get everything from today's copy of THE NEW YORK TIMES to thousands of books on esoteric subjects.

The subscription model might work for newspapers or community sites (such as WW's own Supporters Forum) that users visit regularly, but it won't work in cases where Joe user wants to learn the country prefixes of ham-radio stations or what happened to the USNS GENERAL HUGH J. GAFFEY. The whole idea sounds like CompuServe circa 1989.

articlescafe




msg:1436949
 3:51 am on Apr 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

Hi All,

I was quite surprise by number of replies.

Thanks so much for all the input. Really appreciate it.

The current website that you guys have visited is my first website with adsense. There are few more out there with capability of attracting visitor to come back.

I have bigger plan on my next few years. But with my current time limit, I will not be able to execute my plan and at the same time do my full time job. As it will more likely to consume lot of time for developing (programming, design work) a dynamic site. That's why I am considering to quit my current job.

So, what I am thinking now is to save enough for my family for at least 2 years without working then I will quit.

Thanks Again.

Juan_G




msg:1436950
 7:59 am on Apr 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

How Long adsense will last?

Well, for instance JWT -one of the world's largest advertising agencies (for Vodafone, Nestle, Ford, Shell...)- was founded in 1864.

However AdSense is online advertising, a very young industry, so who knows?

Paris




msg:1436951
 3:40 pm on Apr 24, 2006 (gmt 0)

AdSense has been around for three years and it is likely to still be around in 5-10 years. The variables that will change are CTR and EPC.

Banner ads once generated a 2% click-through rate when they first rolled out in the mid-1990s. In just a couple of years that rate was down to 0.4%. Given the contextual nature of AdSense I don't think it will suffer that way -- it hasn't so far -- but one can never discount ad blindness as a problem down the road.

Then you have earnings per click. Thanks to traffic gains, page growth, and optimization efforts, I'm as happy as a clam with AdSense. However, my CTR is far removed from the gravy days of 2003. I can only imagine as the pool of publisher grows faster than the pool of advertisers that CTR will continue to come under pressure in the coming years.

This will NOT be an Internet bubble circa 2001. Back then, the advertisers that were defaulting were money-losing dot-coms that had bled through their IPO money in a freespending stupor. The advertisers on Google are for the most part smart, local, and bidding economically based on their ROI.

If you are earning more than enough to get by as a publisher and your day job can grant you the ability to take on a 6-month or year-long sabbatical, give it a shot to see if you can grow your publishing efforts with more time on your hands. Just make sure you have an emergency fund available because living paycheck to paycheck isn't bad compared to living by monthly PIP from Google alone.

This 69 message thread spans 3 pages: 69 ( [1] 2 3 > >
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