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Earning dropping...and dropping...and dropping
jakob77

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 8:23 am on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

Hello everyone!

I was really happy when I started with adsense.
Quite an impressive figure for a 5 hours on the first day,
continuing to an impressive figure on the second day.

On the 3rd day, it was even higher.

Though impressions being constant, those earnings per day dropped to 50% and during the next couple of days.

Now, day 10 since my start I only have 20% per day than from the beginning.

A bit disappointing that my initial thoughts about the monthly revenue were a mere illusion, I think till the end of the month I have hardly left anything over per day and t will only be a few pence?

What is your experience abour dropping earings during the course of a month in general?

 

2oddSox

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 9:10 am on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

jakob77,

A casual afternoon reading through all the previous posts in this forum will show you that variety is the spice of life with regards to AdSense. Just about everyone experiences reasonable fluctuations in their earnings, and a good number of them post about it here. 10 days is nowhere near enough to start worrying about drops in revenue, but one aspect might be that your visitors are getting used to the ads. My own experience is that troughs are normally followed by peaks, which are in turn followed by troughs again. Just keep an eye on the ads to make sure you're not displaying PSA's, and you'll find most things come out in the wash.

Good luck,

2odd...

Imaster

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 10:34 am on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

I noticed a decline in earnings after Google included About.com, Lycos, and other big sites as their premium partners. I believe all the high CPC ads are being served to the high profile bigger sites and low CPC ones are for us. This may be one of the main reason for a decline in earning.

We may see further decrease in revenue as more and more publishers join in.

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 1:19 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

I noticed a decline in earnings after Google included About.com, Lycos, and other big sites as their premium partners. I believe all the high CPC ads are being served to the high profile bigger sites and low CPC ones are for us.

If your hypothesis is correct, I wonder wuy my earnings have been increasing faster than my impressions since Google added About.com to its portfolio?

IMHO, it's impossible to draw conclusions from the day-to-day or week-to-week variations in AdSense earnings, just because there are so many factors involved. (See the many other threads on this topic to get an idea of what some of those factors might be.)

loanuniverse

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 1:43 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

I agree with EFV, all of our sites have reacted differently. Earnings, which is the ultimate measuring stick, shows as a bell shaped curve when I graph them over the months with my peak being October. Then again my site(s) were hurt a bit on the Florida update so I can point to that as the reason for some of the drop.

Comparing day to day changes is not very useful in my humble opinion. I would compare rolling averages {make each group at least 7 days so that each has a weekend period to avoid seasonality} once you have that you can compare performance over time much better.

For example, lets say you started showing ads on a Sunday. The first thing you do is get rid of the Sunday stats since they probably are partial stats. Then you ad impressions / clicks / earnings for the next seven days and divide the resulting numbers by 7. You do the same for each following week and you will get rid of daily variations.

Getting the data is not hard {copy-paste} from the "all-time" report in the account manager into a spreadsheet.

Jenstar

WebmasterWorld Senior Member jenstar us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 3:30 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

Many do report higher than normal earnings for the first day or two, likely due to the "curiousity clicks" by visitors to your site when they appear - simply clicks by visitors to your site wondering what it is you are advertising.

steve40

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 3:36 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

You must also remember that a number of the high paying adds for xmas sales will be drying up about now due to delivery intime for xmas ,
many will stop xmas campagns over the xmas period and restart 27th for january sales ,

just 2 cents worth
steve

figment88

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 4:06 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

in addition to Jenster pointing out the curiosity clicks, there are a number of other reasons why initial day clicks can be higher:

1) if you are in a very specific area or have a very large site, your inclusion of adwords might fill the market. On you first few days you cause advertisers to exceed their daily budget, Google then ramps back their impressions.

2) there can be variations throughout the week. Many people probably install adsense on a weekday and have worse nmubers on weekends.

3) you might cause a reaction from advertisers. getting clicks from your site might be the impetus to get them to go find the opt-out of content distribution button.

jranes

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 6:51 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

I noticed a decline in earnings after Google included About.com, Lycos, and other big sites as their premium partners. I believe all the high CPC ads are being served to the high profile bigger sites and low CPC ones are for us.

I believe this too, although obviously I have no emperical evidence to back it up.

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 8:27 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

I believe this too, although obviously I have no emperical evidence to back it up.

Why would Google give better-paying ads to large corporate partners? If the megasites get a bigger revenue cut than mom-and-pop sites (a not unreasonable assumption), then it would make sense for Google to do the opposite of what you believe: i.e., Google could be expected to serve its highest-paying ads on mom-and-pop sites.

For what it's worth, when I look at About.com's direct competitor to my site, I don't see any ads that look better than the ones I'm getting.

Here's something else to keep in mind: For any given keyword, a megasite may not have as much traffic as you think. My own site used to be hosted by About.com, and after I went independent, it didn't take long for my traffic to exceed what I was getting at About.com. (There's far less "network effect" at megasites than outsiders tend to believe; when I was at About.com, I sometimes got 15 times as many referrals from Google and Yahoo in a given week as I did from About.com's internal search engine and navigation menus.) Then you've got to consider the fact that AdSense ads are targeted by keyword, not by site. Let's say you own Eastern-european-widgets.com and you've got 100 pages about Transylvanian widgets on your site. If Lycos or About.com doesn't have that many pages about Transylvanian widgets, you're going to get the bulk of the high-bidding AdSense ads for "Transylvanian widgets"--regardless of the fact that the total traffic of Lycos or About.com is higher than that of your Eastern European Widgets site.

There is one possible negative effect of Google's partnerships with megasites, and that's the fact that advertisers' budgets may get eaten up faster if those sites are running ads for the same keyphrases that appear on your site. More impressions for a given keyphrase = faster expenditure of advertisers' budgets = fewer clicks per publisher. Whether this is a problem for you depends on whether the megasites are running pages that share your keyphrases. And even if such dilution is a problem, it's probably a good thing in the long run because the presence of brand-name sites in the AdSense program will tend to make "content ads" more acceptable to advertisers.

loanuniverse

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 8:45 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

Why would Google give better-paying ads to large corporate partners? If the megasites get a bigger revenue cut than mom-and-pop sites (a not unreasonable assumption), then it would make sense for Google to do the opposite of what you believe: i.e., Google could be expected to serve its highest-paying ads on mom-and-pop sites.

Ok let me disagree here, lets imagine the following scenario:

Inventory:
$20 million for “high-PPC” words costing an average of $1 each. {20 million clicks}
$20 million for “low-PPC” words costing an average of $0.10 each, {200 million clicks}
On any given period you get 10 million clicks with 8 million coming from the Megasites and 2 million coming from Mom & Pops.

If you distribute them evenly and there is an equal chance of click through from both “high-PPC” and “low-PPC” then you will get $5,500,000 from them. You will get $5,000,000 from the “high-PPC” and $500,000 from the “low-PPC”.

If you change it so that the Megasites get 80% of the time the “high-PPC” keywords so that you can switch the probability of a click coming from those sites be a “high-PPC” click then you get the following:

From the Megasites: 6.4 million clicks at $1 a pop + 1.6 million clicks at $0.10 a pop = $6,560,000 ”This alone is more than what you were doing on the previous scenario”

This does not mean that I think Google is doing something similar, it just means that I have been working 5 hours straight while most people are out of the office taking vacation, and I am bored

buckworks

WebmasterWorld Administrator buckworks us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 9:23 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

If a very large player enters the game, that might indeed cause a noticeable depression in other people's per-click earnings, but you don't have to assume that anyone's getting any special favours to explain why.

(1) Advertisers come and go according to their daily budgets, and
(2) As the supply of ad space increases, lower bidders will get more exposure.

Other things will cause variations, of course, but unless Google sells more ads those two factors will cause downward pressure on average earnings per click as a natural result of how the system works.

loanuniverse

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 9:27 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

but you don't have to assume that anyone's getting any special favours to explain why.

Of course you are right, but what is the fun in that?

lgn1

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 11:02 pm on Dec 19, 2003 (gmt 0)

We generally turn our adwords budget off, the week before
Christmas. This is the dead zone, and it does not matter,
how much traffic you have, your sales will suck until
after Christmas. We turn Adwords back on on the 27th, right after Boxing Day. I imagine alot of other companies fit into the same profile.

BwanaZulia

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 8:05 pm on Dec 21, 2003 (gmt 0)

A few interesting trends...

December has been horrible. I am putting up record numbers on the websites (in terms of users/impressions) but EPC and CPM are both WAY down this month (50%).

Now, the strange thing is that the weekends and today the CPM, EPC go through the roof and are double what they are on the weekdays.

My guess? Well, budgets are dropping in December as people run out of money and go on vacation. I think the weekends are better as there are less impressions but people still click.

BZ

quotations

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 8:12 pm on Dec 21, 2003 (gmt 0)

We just turned our largest budget ad back on. It had been off for almost a month and this is the week for it to shine (at lower than usual rates.)

europeforvisitors



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 9:42 pm on Dec 21, 2003 (gmt 0)

December has been good for me, except for the past few days (when I've seen the usual right-before-Christmas dip in traffic). Both AdSense earnings and affiliate bookings have been better in December than in November, so I expect the usual leap-out-of-the-starting-gates effect after Jan. 1 as travelers start to think about their spring and summer vacations.

anallawalla

WebmasterWorld Administrator anallawalla us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 1296 posted 11:29 pm on Dec 21, 2003 (gmt 0)

We generally turn our adwords budget off, the week before
Christmas.

Why turn it off? If there are few people surfing then there will be fewer clicks, unless you have evidence that people are drunk during all these Christmas parties and click recklessly... ;)

My AdSense revenues are rising, not dropping.

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