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This 65 message thread spans 3 pages: 65 ( [1] 2 3 > >     
Google in After Hours Massive Selloff
walkman



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 10:15 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

OUCH!
[finance.yahoo.com...]
After Hours (RT-ECN): 366.78 -65.8801 (15.23%)

Here are what matters to average investors--the headlines:
"UPDATE - Google profit misses Street target, shares drop"
"Google's quarterly results fall short of expectations"
"Google profit misses Street target"
"Google Earns $372.2M in 4Q, Misses Views"

Goog's valuation was and still is scary: they're worth about half of MSFT, and MSFT makes about $3 Billion a quarter in profit from a gazillion sources.

[edited by: walkman at 10:26 pm (utc) on Jan. 31, 2006]

 

woop01

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 10:26 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Any bets on how low it will bottom out tonight?

"After Hours ECN: 364.60 -68.06 (-15.73%) 31 Jan at 5:24PM ET"

adamxcl

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 10:36 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

I always get a kick out of this stuff. They have a nice profit but because it's not the "forecast" they take a hit on stock price. I can see when it's a loss or major news, but these missed numbers....always seems pretty silly to me and points to the stuff that Page and Brin wanted to avoid in the first place. I guess I would always try to lower the forecasts if I could.

walkman



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 10:58 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

>> They have a nice profit but because it's not the "forecast" they take a hit on stock price.

quite simple: their stock price was based on the forecasts and is now being adjusted accordingly.

extremegolfer



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:01 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

SELL SELL SELL!

longen

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:11 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Its time to start sacking analysts - they keep getting forecasts wrong.

wildbest

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:12 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Now is the time to buy, but wait for a couple of days or for a week!

Zygoot

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:22 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Now is the time to buy, but wait for a couple of days or for a week!

Wait to buy or wait to sell?

twinsrul

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:27 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Just curious wildbest, what makes you say that? I believe the fact that the media love affair with Google is ending and more competition looming on the horizon can't justify the outrageous valuations Google is currently trading at.

bostonseo



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:34 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

If they hadn't gotten so greedy with the last Adwords algorithm change, I know I'd still be spending $30,000 a month with them. But I've decided to spend that money elsewhere...Advertisers are getting priced out of Adwords.

BillyS

WebmasterWorld Senior Member billys us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:41 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Reports indicate they paid out over $100 million in stock options that were redeemed in the fourth quarter alone.

Google's stock price is going to be very sensitive to meeting analyst's forecasts. Their P/E ratio is 95. I'd never touch a stock at that price, but many members here still think it's a bargain.

afterburner

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:51 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

what is an acceptable P/E ratio, one that makes it smart to buy a stock?

tbird

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:53 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

A little harsh to be slamming a company who's profit is up 82%. I'm still long on Google. Yes, the P/E ratio may be high, but that is expected from a company that is still very much in hyper-growth mode.

[edited by: tbird at 11:54 pm (utc) on Jan. 31, 2006]

hdpt00



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:54 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

P/E doesn't matter all too much. Let's say GOOG had a lawsuit or some other crap and had to pay 1 billion, then their P/E is damn near nothing for the time being.

I'd be more concerned about whether you think there is room for growth and if it is adequately priced for that growth or under priced. Also, giving away a crap load of options and treating the people that mak eall your money like $%#^ doesn't make me all to comfortable until GOOG drops below $150.

hdpt00



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 11:58 pm on Jan 31, 2006 (gmt 0)

Furthermore, like I said, treat the people who make all your money like crap and they deserve this. Greedy greedy greedy.

Like the guy said above, he is finding better uses for $30K now that they are getting greedier than ever. I'm spending a lot more on OV now than before.

iblaine

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:00 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

>what is an acceptable P/E ratio, one that makes it smart to buy a stock?
By comparison Yahoo has a P/E ratio of 26 but it's hard to say this matters. MSFT has had its best performance at times when their P/E ratio was high. Fundamentally you would expect a company with a lower P/E to perform better. Search for P/E Myth for more info.

[edited by: iblaine at 12:12 am (utc) on Feb. 1, 2006]

wildbest

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:04 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Wait to buy or wait to sell?

Just curious wildbest, what makes you say that? I believe the fact that the media love affair with Google is ending and more competition looming on the horizon can't justify the outrageous valuations Google is currently trading at.

Buy. Google is a short term buy. But... wait for about a week for the dust to settle and also for some very short term squeeze for the longs.

It is correct to say that they had outrageous valuations but not any more... In my view, a level around 320/30 would be quite good to jump on. Below 290 would be a concern, of course! But... this is a webmaster forum not stock trading! :)

frontpage

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:07 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

They Google shorts will be out in force tomorrow. Many people did not learn during the tech bubble what a P/E ratio is and its importance.

zjacob



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:10 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

>what is an acceptable P/E ratio, one that makes it smart to buy a stock?

Current P/E ratio is not the key to this game, rather, most people look at the expected P/E ratios.

How much into the future one should be looking for the expected P/E relies much on which point in time the company's expected growth rate is expected to stabilize.

GOOG is a major growth story, and nobody knows where the growth will level out, as they are expanding in all directions.

frontpage

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:17 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

With a current Google P/E ratio of 95 and early warning on January 24, 2006 that earnings were going to disappoint; you can't say you did not see the sell off plunge coming.

See: Google's Stock Closes Below $400 for First Time in Two Months on Worries About 4Q

[webmasterworld.com...]

aleksl



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:26 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I guess you guys don't do much investing...this is a classical case of speculation. Down just over 15% in aftermarket - XA-XA-XA!

Well it knocked out all the stop-orders allright. Just a hunch - some big connected speculator wanted into GOOG bad and is buying all the shares that get on the market from stop orders. Now that it has shaken off these stop orders, GOOG will go up more IMHO.

Now that I look closer, it is a 3:30 selloff, no doubt some big player or speculator. Don't worry, fella googlers, your shares'll be allright (or taken away) in the morning.

JayC

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:29 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

>> Furthermore, like I said, treat the people who make all your money like crap and they deserve this.

Deserve what? $372.2 million profit in the just-completed quarter?

Anyone who's in Google for the long haul, including the principals and leaders of the company, isn't likely to be seeing this as particularly disastrous and worrying that they're paying for having somehow wronged "the people who make all their money." There's never been any doubt that at some point there'd be a correction to the stock price and consequently to each of their personal on-paper positions. They're still immensely successful, immensely wealthy, and not likely to change anything about how they run the business.

Heck, if I were a Sergey Brin or a Larry Page I'd probably be relieved whenever it happens to finally get it over with and get the price into a stable situation.

twinsrul

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:40 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

I honestly can't see why people are in Google for the "long-haul" considering a few years ago, this company didn't even exist. The internet is ever changing and ever evolving. If Google's around and still dominate in 10 years, I'll be very impressed.

wildbest

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 12:51 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Correct, but Google will be out of the Internet soon. In fact, they will distribute your TV commercials soon, kinda AdSense for TV! VOIP is a hot sector right now, ruining all traditional telco business. Next is IPTV. And there comes GOOG.

Acuity

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 1:20 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Actually, Google went below $360 and met resistance at the $350 level in AH. Right now I see Google around $381 and a lot of sells with large blocks of shares (50-500) on Level 2.

I think Google has resistance at the $380 mark and will probably trail back a bit tomorrow morning on fear but may rise in the afternoon on re-investment and short coverings.

BillyS

WebmasterWorld Senior Member billys us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 1:48 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

>>Now that I look closer, it is a 3:30 selloff, no doubt some big player or speculator.

Must be a very big player, we're talking $175 million in shares sold.

From an insider standpoint, the only ones buying shares are those that are getting stock for free.

Nick Jachelson

5+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 3:24 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

ouch indeed!

Well, I do only own 1 share ... I guess it's not the end of the world.

extremegolfer



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 3:43 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

After hours this stock fell over 12%...are you kidding me?! The stock is going to tank from the opening bell tmrw. SELL.

ByronM

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 3:57 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)

Profit taking and balancing out..

ByronM

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4422 posted 4:13 am on Feb 1, 2006 (gmt 0)


Correct, but Google will be out of the Internet soon. In fact, they will distribute your TV commercials soon, kinda AdSense for TV! VOIP is a hot sector right now, ruining all traditional telco business. Next is IPTV. And there comes GOOG.

Thats the problem they face. Google is a search company seems to be gearing more towards a marketing company. While the technology works remarkably well for the internet that impersonal service doesn't translate to TV or radio.

If google needs to monitor my tv habits to tune the ads to my liking then thats going over and beyond the ethical limits of what i would want any company to do. (honestly i'm sure it's already done so google wouldn't bring much to this market anyhow)

Search is great on the internet and has lots to be desired, however computer algorithms and processing only does so much when it comes to live media.

Verizon & Dish and Comcast are where the tv wars will play out in the "last mile" services and XBox, PS3, Gamecube and Tivo is where the IPtv will play out.

If anything more of the last mile and set top box providers will put a choke hold down.

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