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Google downgraded by Stifel Nicolaus, shares drop nearly $19
Are they diversifying too quickly?

 1:04 pm on Jan 18, 2006 (gmt 0)

Google (GOOG) was downgraded to sell from hold at Stifel Nicolaus, which cited concerns over valuation and a potential change in sentiment following disappointing results from rival Internet services provider Yahoo (YHOO) . Google's shares were shedding $18.60, or 4%, to $448.51 in Instinet pre-open trading. As of Tuesday's close, the stock had gained 48% since the end of September. "Where there is smoke, there is fire," said Analyst Scott Devitt. "Yahoo's results last evening broke the sector momentum and sentiment which should now force investors to focus more on what these businesses are worth rather than where the stocks may be going." Yahoo tumbled 11% in the pre-open after reporting late Tuesday fourth-quarter earnings that missed expectations and provided a disappointing first-quarter outlook.


I have seen many companies make the mistake of too much,too fast thinking they are "untouchable"

Could this be a sign of caution here are are you still with the brokers that forecast $500/600?




 1:28 pm on Jan 18, 2006 (gmt 0)

Took too long to type the same thing, I guess... Was watching the news break on CNBC.

S&P downgrading, and CNBC making the downgrade a headliner, are going to drive several flocks of sheep away from the stock. Expect it to drop several percent today alone, especially with the panic selling going on in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which is making people skittish.


 3:18 pm on Jan 18, 2006 (gmt 0)

The results Y! announced yesterday will hit the sector, GOOG was down in after hours last night.


 10:52 pm on Jan 18, 2006 (gmt 0)

Wow, a "sell". That's a rarity on Wall Street.

A couple of amusing antedotes about how I predicted the top for Qualcomm and the top for the 2000 bubble to the day...

- I was working for a chip manufacturer here in San Diego. QCOM was soaring after a famous stock guru predicted it would go to $800, and sure enough it did. I had a co-worker who some QCOM stock from her previous employment at QCOM. The subject came up, and I asked her if she thought QCOM was getting a bit pricey, and if she was planning on selling some.

She replied "no - there's a drug dealer that lives next door to me. I want to wait until the stock goes up enough so that I can afford to make an offer for the house next door big enough that he will have to accept, and get him out of the neighborhood."

I decided that was the day QCOM was done. It was.

Clue #1: shareholders seeing their holdings as money in the bank, with no thought that it would ever drop significantly in value.

That was the day QCOM topped-out.

- I was working for a hardware/software startup, in the field of a promising wireless technology. One day, as I walked past a row of cubicles, EVERY CUBICLE displayed an online broker's web page on it's screen. We're talking like 10 cubicles.

That was the day the 2000 bubble topped-out.

Clue #2: Nobody left to sell to. Everybody is in the game.

Further, it was clear from the ever-increasing salaries paid to incoming employees and the inordinate time EVERYONE spent interviewing people (I mean, I was a CONTRACTOR, and they had me interviewing prospective employees), the poor quality of incoming workers, and the mandate we had to make a hiring decision BEFORE APPLICANTS LEFT THE BUILDING that something had to give. This was going on across the industry - money was just being thrown at making it appear that something was going on, but in fact, under-qualified people were just sitting there watching their stock portfolios.

Wall Street was bringing in piles of cash in the door, and ways were found to quickly spend it and give the appearance of progress.

To bring this back to relevance... I wonder how much of what was happening in 2000 on a macro level is now happening again in more focused areas?


 11:08 pm on Jan 18, 2006 (gmt 0)

As I posted elsewhere ..factor in the "Livedoor effect" and many things may change rapidly ..

Now may well be the time to reduce risk to stocks likely to be seen as "related" by investors ..


 11:26 pm on Jan 18, 2006 (gmt 0)

>> Wow, a "sell". That's a rarity on Wall Street.

it is, but Standard & Poors has google on sell too (I'm looking at their report on Fidelity.)


 8:24 pm on Jan 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Looks like the bottom is falling out [marketwatch.com], almost a 20% drop in just a few days and 8% today.


 9:24 pm on Jan 20, 2006 (gmt 0)

Big market correction today. Google below $400 now.

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