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Google IPO Next Week?
CNN reports
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msg:1236194
 12:45 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

[money.cnn.com...]

 

digitalv




msg:1236195
 1:32 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

Lots of people are going to lose lots of money when Google goes public. Google doesn't make enough money to give investors a return on a stock as high and with as much volume as this is going to be. Bad investment if you ask me ... at least initially. After the hype dies and stock lands closer to $50 then we'll see, but I just have a strong feeling this stock is going to go DOWN before it goes up. Google just doesn't have the income to justify these prices, nor do they have a (publically known) plan to increase their income.

bcolflesh




msg:1236196
 1:35 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

nor do they have a (publically known) plan to increase their income.

Sure they do, phase 1 starts next week. ;)

digitalv




msg:1236197
 1:40 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

Hahaha, aside from that :) Seriously though, Google hasn't indicated that they're going to do anything to increase revenue. They have all of these little fun projects like GMail and Google News - and none of them are doing anything for them. Their only source of income continues to be AdWords, and I haven't heard any plans to do anything else. Sorry, but people aren't going to be signing up for AdWords in droves to advertise on GMail. If they don't have a plan, they're going to tick off a lot of people.

loanuniverse




msg:1236198
 1:50 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

And yet revenue and profits keep going up........ Sure, they are a "one trick pony", but that darn pony looks like Secretariat.

surfgatinho




msg:1236199
 2:17 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

Sure it's been said before but it seems that to make more money Google will branch out and in doing so dillute it's brand/product.
Once this happens it won't stand apart from it's competitors.
Also it's possible without the initial enthusiasm and ethos of Google being the best maybe the creativity that keeps it ahead of the competition might dry up or go elsewhere. I hear MS pay quite well.
If I was going to put money into this market I'd be putting it with the competition.
:)

donpps




msg:1236200
 2:22 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

If Google track record on innovation is anything to go by, I believe they will hang in there for while. Long term prospects are hard to quantify at this stage.

Anyways, its long overdue for a tech IPO.. I long for the days of "irrational exuberance."

Don

notsosmart




msg:1236201
 6:05 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

And yet revenue and profits keep going up........ Sure, they are a "one trick pony", but that darn pony looks like Secretariat.

Except that Secretariat is in court and facing the real possibility of losing to Over's thoroughbred.

I would definetly stay away at 300 P/E. You'd have to be nuts, or have a very short memory.

OTOH, maybe they'll pump up the Nasdaq some, before the shorts violate them.

Chndru




msg:1236202
 6:08 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

Good. Y'all stay away, so i can get some for cheap!

loanuniverse




msg:1236203
 6:13 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

I would definetly stay away at 300 P/E.

Where do you get 300 PE, I think it is only 150 at the low end of the range.

extremegolfer




msg:1236204
 6:26 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

I wouldn't touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. IMHO MSFT looks like a much safer and more lucrative deal.

mfishy




msg:1236205
 6:49 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

They have all of these little fun projects like GMail and Google News

While IMHO the stock will be wildly overpriced, I wouldn't call Gmail "little fun project" unless, of course, you consider Yahoo! mail and hotmail just fun little projects too. G has made clear how they are going to make revenue from this.

<<irrational exuberance>>

those were times!

vitaplease




msg:1236206
 7:47 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

https://www.ipo.google.com/

The dutch auction thing is fine and all the different things Google is doing to be Google, I just find it rather limited or off-putting for one of the real international search engines to limit the IPO, or basic IPO info, to the US only...

We have not undertaken any efforts to qualify this offering for offers to individual investors in any jurisdiction outside of the United States..

I guess you can probably bid from outside the US by going through Morgan Stanley or CSFB but the above is not exactly inviting for the non US..

Shane




msg:1236207
 7:53 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)


I agree with the limiting it to the US. Should we start a don't use G**gle campaign around the rest of the world (tongue is firmly in cheek people).

..... Shane

Matt1972




msg:1236208
 8:24 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

300 P/E :)))))))))))))))))))

I have saved some money for Google's stocks. Now I can use it on something else, like Valueclick for example.

zeus




msg:1236209
 8:27 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

I dont think we will see such a big boom, I think the price will end at 108 on the 10th

woop01




msg:1236210
 8:53 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

Where do you get 300 PE, I think it is only 150 at the low end of the range.

In that case I would have to change my opinion from insanely overpriced to extremely overpriced.

loanuniverse




msg:1236211
 9:05 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

You know income per share for the first six months of 2004 increased 247% from the income per share shown in the same period a year ago. If the trend continues in the second half of the year {a good possibility}, you could be looking at a PE of around 100 at the end of the year, which is by the way lower than Yahoo’s PE right now.

Cheap? Expensive? Just right?

/feeling like I should have worked a reference to three bears in this post.

skibum




msg:1236212
 10:18 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

It's higher than Amazon at about 57 and Ebay at about 78 which IMO is the more durable company no matter what the financial situation anywhere. While MSFT or some startup could kill Google, it is unlikely that any company could displace Ebay since their network grows stronger with each additional member. Search just doesn't work like that.

whatson




msg:1236213
 11:13 pm on Aug 4, 2004 (gmt 0)

I agree, the p/e ratio should be closer to 100, I dont think Google can do much better than they are now, so there is not too much growth potential. They dominate the search engine market already.
Ask Jeeves p/e is only 45 and Yahoos is 120.
Plus you have Microsofts new SE coming out, which will more than likely take away some of Google's users.
Personally I would invest in Google until they did have a p/e around 50, for a sound investment.
And I am one of the lucky ones who bought ASKJ at around $1.

bostonseo




msg:1236214
 1:32 am on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

I'll buy with the intention of selling short and making money.

notsosmart




msg:1236215
 8:14 am on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

I'll buy with the intention of selling short and making money.

And how will you pull off that trick? (Once you "buy" GG, you're LONG).

bostonseo




msg:1236216
 1:39 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

You obviously don't know anything about stock trading....but that's ok.

Hollywood




msg:1236217
 2:51 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

I sure as heck agree here.

As an SEO with a past being bonded with Ag Edwards & Sons Securities and a top 5 main SEO keyword term ranking 1st page I say 36 billion is way to rich.

I suspect a more realistic price to be 1/2 of what Yahoo! can do as a whole so I say if anything 18 Billion is realistic.

This tells me that after the open if the savvy agree with me the stock could see-saw 50% below the open price if it does open at $108.00 +/- /share.

So my target is $70.00 or less.

Ciao Ciao

Hollywood

-------------------------------

Business Week News: Google This: Investor Beware
The Web search outfit's business is terrific, but its long-term outlook is cloudy.

[yahoo.businessweek.com...]

Graph: [images.businessweek.com...]

layer8




msg:1236218
 4:06 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

I can see the future "Google search technology helps FBI fight bad guys in latest software advances using TRS - Thought Recognition Software

In the early days using an old fashioned style keyboard you would ask Googlebot to find a list of places you could eat that evening, instead of offering you a full list of exotic food sources along with a selection of fine wine it would return pictures of people's feet.

Although at the time it was not good for finding a list of restuarants, it did help people diet more effectively.

People would blame Google's algo, Google would blame Spammers, Spammers had the most advanced techology for finding peoples email addresses. Speculation on who had the better technology even made it's way into the betting shops. Back in the year 2004 the question everyone asked was who's technology was more advanced, the one that could search the internet and find email addresses of people wanting breast implants or the one that crawld the internet searching for information people did not want.

Thankfully by the time Google did their IPO the algos started to behave themselfs, this ultimately lead to a period where webmasters actually made money working to build a better Internet.

Google thanked these lovely people with a statement that they would never forsake them again and all would live in harmony with each other. Googles stock value rose to new levels, Fat Cats, Employers, Investors and the webmaster community enjoyed the fruits of a new playing field.

The Google PHD's went from trying to prevent reverse engineering to investigating Quantum Physics. By doing so they found a mathimatical formular that allowed Googlebot to crawl inside the minds of people and cache a list of things people did, with this new found information they were able to produce Googlebot Version V6 and identify people with good honest minds.

This number was 48, the funny thing is this:

If you bought $48 of Google shares in the year 2004 they would be worth $666,666,666 in todays electronic money.

If is for this reason I actually think Google shares are very cheap in deed ;)

ByronM




msg:1236219
 4:12 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

Google apparently issued 3.1 billion in bad stock and is offering to buy it back at a fraction of the value.

[money.cnn.com...]

Interesting story..

drift82




msg:1236220
 4:40 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

I'll buy with the intention of selling short and making money.

So given this ridiculous P/E ratio I'm definitely considering shorting Google as well. I was wondering if you had a good stock broker for doing this? And yes I realize this is an unusual post in a webmasterworld thread.

IITian




msg:1236221
 5:48 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

>So given this ridiculous P/E ratio I'm definitely considering shorting Google as well.

PE ratio does not mean a thing. neither do research reports from investment banks. These things are useless.

What matters for trading is investor psychology. If everybody is thinking of shorting the stock, go long. Always buy a stock when everybody hates it.

Shorting is not for everybody. Potential risks are limitless unlike going long where the poterntial risk is the price of the stock.

If you want to go long Google, wait till 200 million more shares are released in about 6 months and buy just after that.

bostonseo




msg:1236222
 7:11 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

Anyone who has ever doubted my wisdom on this message board pucker up.

NOW who else thinks selling short is a good idea. This IPO is a train wreck.

loanuniverse




msg:1236223
 7:19 pm on Aug 5, 2004 (gmt 0)

Boston:

I am not sure if buying is a good idea, but I am certain that selling short is not.

If the market catches some "irrational exuberance", you could easily see yourself having to buy stock at $100 above the price that you sold short. Also don't you have to borrow the stock to sell it short? i doubt your broker will have any inventory to do that. I sleep more comfortably knowing my downside.

/has not sold short and limits himself to buying the stock or buying/selling options.

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