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Google Finance, Govt, Policy and Business Issues Forum

This 49 message thread spans 2 pages: 49 ( [1] 2 > >     
24 636 659 shares...
kendos

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:20 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

24 636 659 Class A shares between $108.00 and $135.00 per share. The symbol will be "GOOG"

[sec.gov...]

 

gopi

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:26 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Good find Kendos ...Thanks!


So that elderly gentleman Brian Reid who was fired did loose a potential 16 Million in Options! ... Poor Chap!

xcandyman

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:28 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Note the location for the auction:

Obtain a bidder ID. You will need to go to <b>www.ipo.google.com</b> and follow the directions!

rustybrick

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:36 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

"You may obtain a bidder ID from www.ipo.google.com. We currently expect this web site to become available within a few days after the date of this prospectus. This web site may only be open for obtaining bidder IDís for approximately one week. You will not be able to obtain a bidder ID after our underwriters begin taking bids in the auction for our initial public offering."

gopi

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:37 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Actually i dont understand the motive behind this high price ($135)...Normally Corporations will have more shares outstanding each with less price to give the illusion to the retail investor that their stock is cheap , dont they?

Thats normally the main reason for company's to annonunce stock splits!

finer9

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:45 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

this says to me there is enough interest for that not to be necessary. Price is set by the market...

xcandyman

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:48 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Just found something funny, Check on A18 just below

We strive to continuously improve them or replace them with something even better as we learn more, and the technology just gets better and better.

Select the area between that line and the Footer A18.

[edited by: xcandyman at 1:49 pm (utc) on July 26, 2004]

Edwin

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:49 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Very smart of them - means they're not leaving billions of dollars in profit on the table for the first investors to buy in and then flip the stock...

ThomasB

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:01 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

That's not bad, especially for Sergey and Larry. Both would be in the top 100 of the richest people in the world according to Forbes if you calculate 121 USD per share as stated in the SEC documents.

Also worth noting was what may have been one of the best investments ever is:
Andreas Bechtolsheim's 100,000$ dollar check turned in to 437,303,680 USD

finer9

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:04 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

www.ipo.google.com updated

This page is not yet ready.

A copy of the prospectus relating to the securities to be offered by Google Inc. may be obtained, when available, from:

* Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Prospectus Department
1585 Broadway
New York, NY 10036
(800-364-5990)
* Credit Suisse First Boston LLC
Prospectus Department
One Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10010
(212-325-1075)

A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold nor may offers to buy be accepted prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective.

This release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any State in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such State.

loanuniverse

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:08 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Wow, that is kind of a high range. I need to download that filing and give it a read. I would have thought they were going to go with a lower target price.

Chndru

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:15 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Additionally, Google reported second-quarter earnings of $79.1 million on revenue of $700.2 million, up from earnings of $64 million on revenue of $651.6 million in the 2004 first quarter, according to the prospectus.

Operating income for the second quarter was $171 million, up from $155.3 million in the first quarter, according to the filing.

Yahoo News [news.yahoo.com]

viggen

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:19 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

We also compete with destination web sites that seek to increase their search-related traffic

Destination Web sites is that meant in travel or general websites? Does Google see now website that rank at Google as a competitor?

cheers
viggen

edit;
never mind, should have read the second part too :/
...These destination web sites may include those operated by Internet access providers, such as cable and DSL service providers.

BReflection

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:43 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

goog [encarta.msn.com](plural googs)
noun
egg: an egg ( slang )

A nest egg? golden egg? ^_~

(edit) As an aside, how is it possible to write such crappy html? What is the point even? There are ~35,000 errors in that document.

[edited by: BReflection at 3:09 pm (utc) on July 26, 2004]

skibum

WebmasterWorld Administrator skibum us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:51 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

So if they float it all out at $108 - $135 per share, how would that valuation stack up as far as P/S, P/E compared to others in the space, Ebay, AMZN, YHOO, ASKJ?

finer9

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:00 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

my back of envelope puts the PE at around 40

Not sure what current PE is for that sector...but sounds about right, if not low

gopi

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:05 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Personally i dont like the symbol , GOGL sounded better!

limitup

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:09 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

This junk will be half of whatever it opens at within 90-180 days. Can't wait to short GOOG!

ebound

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:36 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

I'm no stock analyst but here are some numbers I came up with.

Google - $135 (Current Price)
24,636,659.00 = Shares Outstanding
$105,600,000.00 = 2003 Net Income
$4.29 = EPS - Earnings Per Share
$3,325,948,965 = Market Cap

Yahoo - $27.22
1,350,000,000.00
$237,879,000.00
$0.18
$36,747,000,000.00

Microsoft - $28.57
10,860,000,000.00
$9,993,000,000.00
$0.92
$310,270,200,000.00

Amazon - $38.77
406,860,000.00
$35,282,000.00
$0.09
$15,773,962,200.00

Ebay - $74.05
657,360,000.00
$441,771,000.00
$0.67
$48,677,508,000.00

IITian

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:40 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Best news of the year for the short sellers. Seems to be fully valued leaving little chance of upward movement while any negative news e.g. Microsoft unveiling its SE, will easily punish the stock.

mrwhy2k

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:44 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

It sounds good for a short sellers, but at the same time, you have to be weary of a split. RedHat split during its IPO, you never know what Google might do.

finer9

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:45 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

eBOUND - your 100M in income for 2003 kills the calc, because they just reported $80M in one 2004 quarter...and PE is of course very sensitive to earnings.

I messed up and used operating income in my 40 PE calc before...using the

'Google reported second-quarter earnings of $79.1 million '

info

along with $120 per share, 24M shares, and annualizing the $80M in quarterly income, you get around

77 PE

high...but maybe worth it? who knows...

IITian

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:52 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Splitting a stock will boost demand for it among the public but the total value of the company remains the same and the fundamentals remain the same. A $36 billion valuation is almost same as that of Yahoo, a business that comes with a search engine (well, sort of) plus lots of goodies like its finance, movies, message boards, directory and so on.

Given present valuation of Yahoo, I would have guessed Google's fair value to be about $20 billion or lower.

iblaine

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 5:19 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Ironically the price for all of Google's public shares is about the same amount of money that Bill Gates will receive as a dividend at the end of this year.

loanuniverse

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 5:37 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

ebound: The number of shares for Google's computation has to be the total outstanding not just this offering.

gopi

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 7:50 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

There seems not soo positive response in the business press!

[money.cnn.com...]

peterdaly

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 8:13 pm on Jul 26, 2004 (gmt 0)

Remember the Google seems to refer Warren Buffet (Birkshire Hathaway, BRKA/BRKB) quite a bit. BRKA currently trades at $87,000 per share. BRKB is 1/32 a BRKA share (more or less). BRKA does not believe in split, and don't really give a flip about the stock price. They are building a business, not a stock. This is the Google mindset.

The market wants and is used to thinking of a business as a side product of a stock. BRKA, and Google, think of a stock as being a side affect of a business.

Raw price isn't really important at all to Google. As a BRKB owner, I think the grumbling has to do with firms that want to buy a stock not being on the save wavelength as Google, who are selling part of a real business using a stock as the vehicle.

This should be interesting...

sdani

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 1:07 am on Jul 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

If their second quarter earnings were close to 80 million, then they make 320 million a year. If it is a perpetual income every year @10%.. then their valuation in most simple terms is 320MM/.10 = 3.2 Billion.

They are saying 36 billion? Is there really that much growth potential? They don't have any "secret" technology.. yahoo is doing almost as good as google..

Anyway, it may be just me.. but I was at one point planning to bid, but not anymore.

IITian

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 2:23 am on Jul 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

>If their second quarter earnings were close to 80 million, then they make 320 million a year. If it is a perpetual income every year @10%.. then their valuation in most simple terms is 320MM/.10 = 3.2 Billion.

You are assuming that Google will continue making 320 million a year, and the discount rate is 10%. Assuming the same discount rate of 10% (assuming risk premium of 7% and risk-free rate of 3%) an assumption of perpetual growth of 5% will make the valuation 320 MM/ (.10 - .05) = 6.4 Billion.

Assumption of perpetual growth rate of 9% will make it 320 / (.1 - 0.09) = 32 B. In reality - a high growth rate followed by a lower growth rate model is assumed - say 20% initially and 5% in the long-run, and discount rate could be higher becasue of its riskiness compared to average market stock.

My non-professional suggestion is to wait out the initial hype and euphoria and buy later at substantial discount. This stock is not leaving the station.(Or short initially and cover later to reap more rewards.) Smart money will likely do the same. Keep in mind the company and its stock underwriters always try to pick the timing that is most beneficial to them - that it when they can sell at the highest price. This is their job. Check out the number of SEC and various Attorney general's investigations against the underwriters regarding fooling individual investors, as every IPO investor should do before buying. That will be quite revealing.

Lots of stories will be planted by investment banks underwriting this stock and the company's PR team in friendly media that how $1 investment in Google 6 years ago became a trillion dollars today, or something like that, leading people to think that similar feat will be duplicated again. Fat chance, in my view.

Chris_R

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 330 posted 3:26 am on Jul 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

$1 investment in Google 6 years ago became a trillion dollars today, or something like that, leading people to think that similar feat will be duplicated again. Fat chance, in my view.

Very True. The average cost per share to google was 35 cents. According to Google's estimates - people will put up 95% of the money to own 5% of google (less if you count voting rights). Of course this is the way it should be - but keep it in mind when shelling out the dough.

Also - I think some of the headlines are confusing. Keep in mind google is only putting up

"Google says IPO would be worth $US3.3 bn - Sydney Morning Herald"

vs

"As It Goes Public, Google Says It Is Worth Up to $36 Billion - New York Times"

Keep in mind that google is only putting up ~9% of it shares. That is the amount that google itself (plus some of its investors) will get back in cash. This is the figure the Sydney Morning Herald is talking about.

Now if everyone sold their shares (including the 91% which is left with google insiders) at the price that google thinks they can get for them - that is the price the New York Times is talking about.

Just thought I would point that out if anyone was confused by it.

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