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Google IPO - 1st Quarter 03 - forbes.com article
a definite maybe on a Google IPO
NFFC




msg:1235949
 7:43 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

The search site Google is queued up for a first-quarter IPO off of surprisingly virile numbers--some $300 million in 2002 sales, $100 million in profit.

[forbes.com...]

 

rcjordan




msg:1235950
 7:55 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

If Forbes is saying it's queued up, it's queued up. Google is just watching their timing.

Brett_Tabke




msg:1235951
 8:03 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

HELLO!? Say, that's big news.

Glad I didn't spend that extra I was thinking about dumping for the tax write off today. Funny this news was leaked on the last day of the year.

dvduval




msg:1235952
 8:07 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

Excuse my ignorance, but what does it mean to be "queued up"?

EliteWeb




msg:1235953
 8:09 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

heheheh wow i just made a load of phone calls :D heh 03 sounds like a good year if this is legit information and all is sound.

kevinpate




msg:1235954
 8:10 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

queued up = it's all set and ready to play, just waiting
for the dj to flip the switch.

I can't imagine there's a meaning in the current context that would be different in any meaningful way.

psoares




msg:1235955
 8:10 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

Very curious to see what comes of this.

Every engine out there went excessively commercial once the board of directors was made up of more real businessmen rather than techies - and that automatically happens with an IPO.

I've had this feeling for some time that they're clinging on to their quality results just until IPO and then become pure commercial PPC and Adwords...I surely hope they prove me wrong.

EliteWeb




msg:1235956
 8:14 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

Maybe the need some money to buy out another player :D

MeditationMan




msg:1235957
 8:15 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

"Queued up" is British English for "in line". Preferably one should queue holding a brolly (umbrella), and wearing wellies (rubber boots).

RuglesHome




msg:1235958
 8:16 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

Is that story not two or three weeks old?

I think it is just the Forbes writer speculating. I do not expect them to go public. They do not need to raise the cash.

Although, I have been wrong before.

Beachboy




msg:1235959
 8:24 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

Like most of us around here, I just hope that Google doesn't screw up their value as a search engine by going public. But I suppose we're about to find out. :(

glengara




msg:1235960
 8:25 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

So which among us would invest?
I'd certainly consider it, but as a long term I'd have my doubts.

rcjordan




msg:1235961
 8:27 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

>do not expect them to go public

They almost have to, it's in their DNA. Their early working capital ($25M, I believe) came from top VC firms.

atadams




msg:1235962
 8:30 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

I dunno. I kinda feel going public would be the beginning of the end for Google. I don't really see what they would get out of it, except a lot of hastles. They don't really need cash. If/when they go public, their #1 objective changes from making the best search engine in the world to protecting and increasing stockholder's investments.

Go60Guy




msg:1235963
 8:32 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

In another thread, someone claimed that the VCs had already recovered their investment. Anyone know about this?

jeremy goodrich




msg:1235964
 8:33 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

It could be the board putting pressure on them - Google might not need that money - but their original investors could probably use a better investment right now - and going public will mean some investment bank is going to make a lot of money on this deal.

Hope this doesn't spell the end for quality results on the web, though.

Napoleon




msg:1235965
 8:34 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

>> So which among us would invest? <<

Not a chance. You read it above - the most likely scenario if they go ahead is a change of the values that got them to where they are today. It would be downhill as far as quality is concerned as the new guys at the top seek short term financial gain.

We've seen the effects of that strategy with so many others. It would be the beginning of the end. The money guys really are blinkered at this game - they'll rape the real value of the company and won't even realise it until its too late.

Strangely enough, post IPO the best stock buy would actually be FAST or some of the others.

IanTurner




msg:1235966
 8:34 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

to protecting and increasing stockholder's investments

i.e maintaining the best search results in the world and keeping the visitors piling through Google.

rcjordan




msg:1235967
 8:36 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

....and world peace.

<added>
Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Go60Guy




msg:1235968
 8:38 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

They don't really need cash.

I'm sure they can use the cash. But, more importantly, the founders and loyal employees, etc. need to realize the vast personal wealth an IPO can bring.

mivox




msg:1235969
 8:47 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

the vast personal wealth an IPO can bring.

I just hope they realize at what cost that vast personal wealth usually comes. I can't think of any search companies who didn't go downhill from the users' perspective after their IPO.

If Google goes public, the only reason I can see behind it is greed (oh sure, we're making a profit... but it's not a BIG enough profit!)... and that never bodes well.

chiyo




msg:1235970
 8:47 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

I'm not as pessimistic. Unless the public are incredibly stupid (admittedly that's debateable), the potential revenue must look good for adwords, premium listings, licensing out the database, agreements with a host of possibles like Myway, boxes etc etc and they all depend on the quality of the database to get people to see the ads and lease the database and technology. To allow the main index to go commercial would be one of biggest mistakes in Web search engine history (and that's saying a lot) It's their ONLY USP.

If they go soft, there are many waiting in the wings to take over their market position.

"Greed is good" worked for a decade or two. Now it doesnt, but im not sure the potential public ownership realise that yet.

Brett_Tabke




msg:1235971
 8:52 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

Who's been saying that you should never under estimate the backroom connections!?

www.pff.org/aspen96/karlgaard.html

Rich Karlgaard graduated from Stanford in 1976.

startup




msg:1235972
 8:55 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

I think they have to go public very soon. Yahoo has dealt them their first blow. Early 2003 wouldn't show the loss of revenue. Going public on declining revenue isn't a position they want to be in.

rcjordan




msg:1235973
 9:04 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

> pessimistic

It has nothing to do with pessimism. When you go to a VC for money, certain events are expected/required in return and there are contractual obligations agreed to beforehand, hence my remark about their DNA. The only real variable is timing. They've made all the moves on the going-to-IPO punchlist.

Now, about the timing, note that they have likely lost the Yahoo deal. I could argue that they may be at their zenith in the first Qtr, the yahoo deal not fully factored in.

The one big concern with going public is their increased exposure to disclosure and the related legal problems ...I was reading an article that touched on just that issue somewhere recently.

To twist an old joke punchline around, Google already knows what they are, they're just haggling over the price. That's business! And my kudos to them for their execution so far.

brotherhood of LAN




msg:1235974
 9:07 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

Well I'd buy shares, and I'd hassle them from a webmaster/searcher/shareholders point of view ;)

I think G is a success and will probably continue to be so after they go public.

Their "personality" sure would change though I think. From bubbly G to big bro G :) On their pedastool it will be hard to maintain SERP quality and shareholder peace!

chiyo




msg:1235975
 9:14 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

rc just in case i was misinterpreted, I take the IPO as a given and have for a long time. The pessimism that i was referring to was that the main index would go commercial or lose quality.

Helpmebe1




msg:1235976
 9:18 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

never ever would I buy.. google goes public = downhill for google. Mark my words, they will not be the popular google. They will be the ppc google or something to that nature, cause it is all about imprssing the stockholders then.. end of story! All control is taking from them, it rests in the stockholders hands.. money, money money money money.. and they will be under pressure to show it.

<edit> Lived this, worked a company that does 5 BILLION in sales a year, they went public.. and all control was lost </edit>

mortalfrog




msg:1235977
 9:19 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

One word expresses everything I'm thinking:

Yahoo!

rcjordan




msg:1235978
 9:25 pm on Dec 31, 2002 (gmt 0)

>pessimism that i was referring to was that the main index would go commercial or lose quality

Yes, I did misinterpret your post, chiyo. I thought you had taken the high-road on me.

This 107 message thread spans 4 pages: 107 ( [1] 2 3 4 > >
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