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Information theory and Adwords
Can we guess the mood of a visitor via keywords?
maserati86




msg:1158474
 8:09 pm on Feb 14, 2006 (gmt 0)

Please fell free to comment or correct my posting this is a work in progress and I posted it here to check if I am going anywhere interesting with this.. I am a professional SEM guy and been working with PPC programs since 1999 (Goto.com).

As you might know, in information theory “Entropy” measures “ the quality of information carried by any signal”. Applied to SEM, “Entropy” could tell us the relations between 1)the KW used to visit a site (input signal), 2) the amount of page viewed carried by this visit (Entropy) 3) the performance of any action -sales, registrations- within the current environment of a web site (output signal) .

The Input Signal (IS) would be the CTR of the keyword/ad combination. The entropy (EN) would be the # of Page viewed from that visit and the conversion rate of that kw would serve as the output signal (OS).

IS can be "Low" if it is below the average CTR of your inventory, "Medium" if average and "High" if above.
EN can also be "Low", "Medium" or "High" compared to the average page viewed of the site.
Same thing with OS : "Low", "Medium" or "High" compared to the average conversion rate of the site.

All combinations could be meaningfull:

Low IS - Low EN – Low OS = Keyword not relevant to your business
Low IS – Low EN – Medium OS = Get more traffic from this KW and try another landing page or improve the actual one. This combination could be a sign of seasonality or an emerging trend.

Low IS – Low EN- High OS = Get more traffic from this KW! Find variation of this KW or ad adjectives to it without misleading the visitor.

Low IS – Medium EN – Low OS = KW used by lookers not bookers. Could also be the landing page is misleading visitor. Do not bid on top position unless it’s a bargain.

Low IS – Medium EN – Medium OS = KW used mainly by lookers, try to squeeze more sales by tweaking ad copy in order to increase CTR. Do not bid for top position.

Low IS – Medium EN – High OS = increase CTR from that KW by changing ad copy and bid top positions. Try more variation of that KW.

Low IS – High EN – low OS = KW used by lookers. Do not pay for that KW, optimize a landing page for it and try to get high ranking in organic listing.

Low IS – High EN – Medium OS = KW used mainly by lookers. Get more traffic only if you can afford it.

Low IS – High EN – Hight OS = KW used by bookers. Get all the traffic you can get at any cost. Optimize your site to rank high on organic results for a search on that KW.

Medium IS – Low EN – Low OS = Keyword not relevant to your business or Ad copy misleading.

Medium IS – Low EN – Medium OS = KW probably used by bookers but the landing page is not compelling enough or your ad is misleading.

Medium IS – Low EN – High OS = KW used by bookers. Get more traffic if your offer remains competitive, watch for impulse buy on that KW.

Medium IS – Medium EN – Low OS = KW is not relevant to your business or you don’t have what the traffic is looking for or your ad is misleading.

Medium IS – Medium EN – Medium OS = tepid KW that needs a change somewhere (ad copy – landing page- products sold) to warm up.

Medium IS – Medium EN – High OS = KW used mainly by bookers. Get more traffic but watch for rising cost.

Medium IS – High EN – Low OS = KW used by lookers. Optimize your site to rank high on organic results for a search on that KW.

Medium IS – High EN – Medium OS = Review landing page and shopping cart.

Medium IS – High EN – High OS = KW used mainly by bookers. Get more traffic but watch cost. if you are not ranking well organically for that kw you should.

High IS – Low EN – Low OS = Although you have little competition on that KW, it is not relevant to your business. Or your ad is misleading visitor or your landing page is utterly confusing.

High IS – Low EN – Medium OS = Do not pay too much for this KW, if you are not ranking well organically for that KW you should.

High IS – Low EN – High OS = Your landing page kicks butt. Bid top position for this kw but watch rising costs.

High IS – Medium EN – Low OS = Your ad is misleading or this is not an important KW for your business.

High IS – Medium EN – Medium OS = Do not bid top positition. Improve landing page and shopping cart.

High IS – Medium EN – High OS = Bid top position but keep an eye on ROI on a daily basis as competition might be aware of the same and could drive cost higher at any time by irrational bidding.

High IS – High EN – Low OS = KW used by lookers. Your ad is misleading and your landing page is confusing or your competition has a better offer…

High IS – High EN – Medium OS = Keyword used by lookers not bookers.

High IS – High EN – High OS = Keyword used by pure bookers. Try to find more variation of it. Maintain top position at (almost) any costs...

Of course web sites do not exist in a vacuum and there are other factors that might impact these rules but I wanted to isolate 3 significant signals that I can work on. Best regards, FRED

 

poster_boy




msg:1158475
 9:54 pm on Feb 14, 2006 (gmt 0)

Well said. Not to this degree of detail (!), but this is how I bucket keywords for optimization strategies as well.

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