WOW! This thread makes me think....
What would be the mathematical methods/approaches for comparing "two curves on a graph" -- 2D -- where one "curve" represented price action of an investment such as, for example, the current front month COMEX futures contract price for gold -- and some other "curve", where the second curve is either:
a) another commodity futures contract (like silver futures compared to gold futures for example), or
b) a non commodity "correlating" curve (think US Dollar Index movement compared to the price movement of Gold for example -- and how this correlation strengthens and weakens over time), or
c) some technical analysis indicator like a slow stochastic, RSI, MACD, etc.
One complication is that some technical indicators like stochastics, MACD lines, etc. themselves are made up of two "curves" -- the interplay of which make up the technical indicator's "value".
Basically, my newest hobby is paying attention to (and placing small bets on) options in the futures market, so I'm wanting to develop some method for analysis and predicting probability of future price movements in the futures markets.
I've been using "just" my programmer's brain for about a year to do the above analysis. I predict correctly more often than not, but would like to codify and test out the theories, patterns and correlations I think are predictive.
Not sure the best type of mathematical approaches, methods and tools for doing this.
The posters in this thread really impressed me with their knowledge, thus my question:
What is/are the best type of mathematics for doing the above analysis/correlations/back testing?
Thank you very, very much!
Happy New Year's to all,