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Google June 2003 : Update Esmeralda Part 3
GoogleGuy

WebmasterWorld Senior Member googleguy us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 7:15 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Continued from: [webmasterworld.com...]


Has anyone here ever heard of a Kalman filter? It's a mathematical way of building a model of the world. The math is pretty complex, but basically you try to build a model of the thing you're trying to represent. When you get a new data point, you update your model's estimate about the state of things.

Why am I talking about this? Well, Kalman filters have a knob that blends between how much you believe your model vs. how much you believe each new data point. If you tweak the knob all the way in one direction, you always trust the model and any new input just gets ignored. On the other extreme, you can ignore your current estimates about the state of the world, and only trust each new data point as it comes in. If you set the knob too far in that direction, the object you're trying to model jumps all over the place each time you see even a hint of new info.

Lots of people here are getting more stressed than they need to be--their knobs are turned a little too far toward worrying about the very last thing that happened: "Now my subpage is coming up higher than it should! Okay, now my index page is back and the SERPs look good. Gaaack! Now I'm showing well at DC but the subpage still shows up higher at FI! Too much pressure--I'm going to drink now, and start spamming every FFA I see tomorrow!" :)

If you look around, you'll notice not too many senior members posting here. They chime in every so often, but their knobs are twisted further in the other direction. They know that the index switchover takes a little time to settle, and they have the perspective not to get too worried about things right now, and in general.

I haven't posted much of my take lately, but if I could give advice, it would probably be: don't panic. Here's what I would expect. Probably about one data center per day will get switched to the Esmeralda index. You may see some improvements during the course of the switchover as ingredients get blended in as they're ready. I would expect another round of ingredient-adding after the index is switched over.

So: if you're really into Google-watching as a sport, I would check in once a day to see what data centers have been switched, and maybe to run 2-3 searches. Browse a little while, and then come back the next day. Find something fun to do at night besides poring over every last thing that GoogleGuy (or whoever) posts on WebmasterWorld. You'll feel better, I promise.

This is just my take. You're welcome to ignore it. But I mention it because during this index, I heard about a lot of good and bad searches from webmasters, and the more I dig, the more confident I am that things will turn out well.

 

Newman

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 7:30 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

When I looking for my domain.com on Google I get information:
Sorry, no information is available for the URL domain.com

When I looking for my domain only on Google I get all pages with my domain in text, but my site is #2 on listing.

Site have link on DMOZ (37 links on Google) and now PR3. Is update over?

Dayo_UK

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 7:36 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Thanks for your advice Googleguy - I have had to many late nights watching my serps recently!

Just a quick guess on this, I assume that we are seeing the first sign of this new blockrank that was talked about in the press a month or so ago?

Anon27

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 7:40 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

When I looking for my domain.com on Google I get information:
Sorry, no information is available for the URL domain.com
When I looking for my domain only on Google I get all pages with my domain in text, but my site is #2 on listing.

Site have link on DMOZ (37 links on Google) and now PR3. Is update over?

WOW, no flame intended, but lets just hope you are stoned and did not read the post from GG just above yours.

Thanks GG

Lounova

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 7:56 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

I found the following to be interesting.

Late June 17 I was tracking the results across the 9 data centers. www.-fi results were showing on www.-va and www.-dc BUT www.-sj and www.-zu were showing completely different results (and those appear to have stuck)while the remaining centers were showing the old listings.

I have not seen any commentary on the above so here it is.

steveb

WebmasterWorld Senior Member steveb us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 8:56 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

That was a great post Google Guy. It's pretty clear a lot of people are micromanaging on little knob switches... or burps.

However, observation of the knob movements is not unhelpful. For instance, I see a site rocketing around (#7 to #27 and back), and I try to see what *else* has happened. I may not be right, but I think I've concluded a few specific things about specific sites in my industry, and I've even been moved to investigate them.

For example... their is a site a couple notches above me now. Some little insubstantial piece of not much. It is ranking higher than me for anchor text -- when it has a grand total of 8 incoming links listed on -fi. (That is some turbo anchor text there.) So their 8 (low quality) anchor text links kick the butt of my 440. But then I see that in the current, non-fi index they show 198 backlinks, almost all of which are very lame. So, the anchor text thing isn't so weird with that 198 data is kicking around in there somewhere. And then also, while I'm surprised that they rank ahead of me, I'm not surprised that they also evaporate completely about 5% of the time (not in the top 100).

But then there is just the bad craziness. I was starting to get used to the straightjacket and thinking GoogleGuy and the Plex had stuff under control, and then I see an article I have on an obscure guy that has been ranked #1 or #2 for six months suddenly has dropped to... 66th. Truly, there are not 65 sites on the entire Internet that devote more than a paragraph to this person. I guess they twiddled the nob down at the Plex that is titled "if a page mentions a person, deduct 65 points." :)

GoogleGuy

WebmasterWorld Senior Member googleguy us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 9:00 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Maybe I should have chosen a different word instead of knob, eh? Oh well, the die is cast and the teasing can commence. :)

And now, for no extra charge, my impression of a stressed-out webmaster in 2010: "What's going on with Google? I submitted 20 million pages to them almost 11 seconds ago, and the pages aren't in the index yet?! Plus it took nearly 8 seconds last time. Is Google utterly and completely broken? Is this the downfall of Google as we know it? I'll bet they're just trying to drive me into buying HoloAds! Or maybe their semantic artificial intelligences ran out of neurons?"

(Sorry, I couldn't resist. :)

troi21

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 9:33 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

The -fi results have changed dramatically for the SERPS i was tracking. example, my site was number one and now is twenty five. Also, these results seem to have spread to most of the data centers, www,www2,www3,va,dc...

anyone else noticed that -fi has changed?

subway

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 9:41 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

I'd say www2, www3 changing dramatically, fi looks much more stable to me!

troi21

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 9:49 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

-fi was showing the same results since the update began but definitely quite different today.

mfishy

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 11:06 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

<<Find something fun to do at night besides poring over every last thing that GoogleGuy (or whoever) posts on WebmasterWorld. You'll feel better, I promise. >>

I thought this was fun? :)

Maybe this update is different from updates of old. I will take your word for it. In my experience, when a new page shows PR, at whatever stage of the update, it tends to stick. In this case it seems that it will change because the PR calculations seem wildly off. I guess I won't pay mind until the weekend.

peace

suggy

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 11:38 am on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Anyone else noticed that their index page is showing the same PR as the sub-pages and the sub-pages sub-pages?!

No depreciation of PR from index down, albeit it a bit wack in the first place!

Surely can't be right?

Suggy

[edited by: suggy at 11:39 am (utc) on June 18, 2003]

zeus

WebmasterWorld Senior Member zeus us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 1:04 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

ncsuk, I think brett has done a good job this time, he made the most important cuts in the begining of the update esmeralda 1,
where there is most confusion about the update.

Here at the end we are just waiting for it to end and then we can talk what is different in this update.

zeus

hazardtomyself

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 1:33 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

GG, I don't do much posting but a ton of reading. I would like to thank you for your unrelenting attempts to keep the SEM world informed about the happenings at Google. Where would we all be without your comments?

Sincerely,
A little less of a: hazardtomyself

Chndru

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 1:44 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

LOL @ semantic neurons ;)..Taking AI a step further, I forsee more of a built-in web search in the brain..<just think and bingo!> It is too boring to type and press the gawdy enter key!

spikedo55

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:01 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

This is friggin crazy. Over the past two weeks, my site moved up to #2 position for my primary keyword for 2 days (yeah!), then dropped off search results totally (boo!) for 2 days, then came back to #2 for three days (yeah!), and this morning dropped completely off the results again (crap!). I wish Google would stop all this fine-tuning and give us webmasters a chance to breathe.

Ltribe

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:13 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

What I find weird is the sites disappearing. Hard to fathom why some sites should disappear completely instead of just moving down in the SERPS. The sites missing from the SERP are frequently still indexed just MIA.

Also, some sites don't do the disappearing dance .... ever.

wackmaster



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:19 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

GG, I'll add my sincere thanks for your post.

During the last two updates, I have waffled between: believing I'm learning what you Gooligans are up to as the new SERP's change...to believing I have no idea what you're up to...to believing I need another cup of coffee...to knowing that it's time for that drink!

However...I do believe that I learned a thing or two during Dominic. In particular, I saw one of my sites drop substantially right after you commented that you had applied "a few minor filters." It set me off to figuring out what we had done wrong. I found something, related to backlinks, that probably set off that filter. Fixed it. Life is better as a result, I think (at least right now it appears to be).

The thing is, I only needed to tune in once a day to learn what I learned...not the 10 times that I was tuning in. Thanks again.

dazzlindonna

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:26 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

spikedo55 and Ltribe,

What I find weird is the sites disappearing. Hard to fathom why some sites should disappear completely instead of just moving down in the SERPS. The sites missing from the SERP are frequently still indexed just MIA. Also, some sites don't do the disappearing dance .... ever.

at least i'm not alone. my site was in the SERPS until late last night - now...site is still indexed - backlinks show up in -fi datacenter, but site shows up nowhere in the SERP today.

and GG, as much as i would like to be patient, i've determined that i have GOD - Google Obsessive Disorder - until this is over, there's no hope for my nerves to calm down. the cure would be some stabilization on google's part.

ncsuk

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:32 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Guys if they are relativly new sites then they will pop in out out of the serps for a month or two but then they will stick. If it is a different problem then it maybe worth looking into.

AthlonInside

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:35 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

There are already 3 active datacenters with the new index, so we could expect all datacenters to have the new index in the next 4 days as suggested by GoogleGuy (1 datacenter/day).

pshea

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:36 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

GG, love the whole knob thing.

ps

johnnydee

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:42 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

nscusk said:
Guys if they are relativly new sites then they will pop in out out of the serps for a month or two but then they will stick. If it is a different problem then it maybe worth looking into.

I'm getting the same issue as spikedo55 and Ltribe and my site isnt that new, a year old, I'm interested to know nscusk what "different problems" it could be so that I can investigate.

Thanks in advance.

ncsuk

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:47 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Have you changed content recently, got new links, changed page structure etc etc.

There are massive amounts of variables that can change the way things are ranked, you could of inadvertantly deleted something that was holding a lot of weight for your site or added something that diluted the quality of something else.

Everything is relational and without me going to your site and spending hours analysing it I will not be able to tell you. Of course because the update is happening at the moment it could just be that your competitors have all done something and blitzed your listings.

It is all relational, see if you can find your site in the serps anywhere next time it happens, usually if you drop out you will find yourself on a page but it maybe wayyyy down the listings.

Midwest

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:48 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

GG, very good way to put it.

I'm still not sure if everyone replying understands the whole purpose behind the topic, but there is a few of us out there that get it. ;)

I'm going fishing. :)

grifter

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:55 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Time to buy an AdWords ad selling over-the-counter sedatives on the phrase "Kalman Filter"...

Go60Guy

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 2:57 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Thanks Googleguy. Its difficult enough for all of us to acheive a modicum of balance in our lives, let alone in the presence of Google's machinations. After reading your perspective, I realize that I've come to a much more patient, accepting and tolerant reaction to updates.

I can understand heightened anxiety where one has only one site to nurture, fertilize, etc. Everything rides on the performance of that site.

Once you have a few dozen sites up and running, its much easier to avoid overreaction. By that time, you've been through the process many times and know more what to expect.

I'll make everyone a promise. Get a whole bunch of sites up and running. Do the best job you can in keeping with Google's Guidelines and what you can learn here at WebmasterWorld. What you'll see, with each update, is that some will go up, some will go down. Some that were up are now down. Some that were down are now up.

Constantly keep adding new sites and tweaking what you have. You will then continuously improve your results on average and, if you're in the commercial arena, your bottom line.

spikedo55

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 3:01 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

What data centers already have the new index? Perhaps I am viewing one with an old one.

Big_Dug

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 3:01 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

Meh, I don't see why everyone stresses about Google so much.
If the position and traffic comes, great. If they don't, life bites - live with it.

Chasing Google Algos is a fruitless task. You notice a change in the Algo and refine your pages, Google spiders and during the next index refresh the changes become relevant - just in time for another Algo change.
Google is always one step ahead.

Just relax and rely on the more stable traffic. Google is the bonus at the end of the month.
There is little point in trying to second-guess geniuses. Buy a pot plant for your desk or go to the beach, don't worry (you will just die young). :)

BD

troi21

10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 14443 posted 3:02 pm on Jun 18, 2003 (gmt 0)

--> athloninside

which three data centers have the new index? some datacenters (-va,-dc,-cw) seem to have fresher data because I made some small changes to my site and they are showing up on those datacenters.unfortunately, i am 25 in those serps. on (-fi,www3,www2) the data is not fresh and i am number one. so which datacenters are updated?

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