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Crash In The Works - US Stock Market Will Be Hit Hard Today

 12:45 pm on Oct 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

Accelerated panic selling hit Asia and Europe and will cause a huge flush out in US Markets this morning. This could last a few days. The good news? Our Markets cannot begin to recover until forced sellers are expelled from the Market and that is exactly what we will see unfold here. Often a Friday crash has a chance to recover by Tuesday. Only time will tell.

What we know at this point:

* Asia and Europe Markets hit hard
* Limit down US futures before open
* Wild currency moves



 12:57 pm on Oct 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

The sad part is 7 days before the great wall street crash on 24th October 1929 shared plummeted and one week later was the wall street crash . I hope for all our sakes history is not repeated. and most of the crash has already happened.



 1:34 pm on Oct 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

Those of us here (most of us, I suspect) went through the dot-com bubble burst. What is interesting in comparing then and now is that much of the value of the dot-com stock where not backed up by any real assets, so the "crash" made sense. Real value, eventually, has to come into play.

Today we are seeing a different kind of bubble. While many of the real estate assets were greatly overvalued, and I'm one of those who believe they need to come down even more almost everywhere, in this case there are real asset in play that have at least some value.

With that in mind, I think it is possible that the recovery, when it starts, will come sooner rather than later and it will be more sustainable.

Most of the people on this board know that real businesses can make real money providing real service and worthwhile products. That should be our focus as we invest.

I'm investing in my own business mostly now, but I've started looking for others who I think are doing a good job. Microsoft is one firm who seems to have an understandable business model, for example. (I have to understand the business to invest in it.)


 2:02 pm on Oct 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

So far we are not seeing the amount of panic that was indicated by foreign markets.


 6:00 pm on Oct 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

It's starting now. If the dow drops over 700 before close, I'll be buying again. Whenever we see huge market moves like this, there's an element of irrational selling. Buying opportunity!


 8:15 pm on Oct 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

You are right, there is always a bounce upwards after these big drops. But then it drops again!

Only (yes only) down 2.5% today.


 8:39 pm on Oct 24, 2008 (gmt 0)

Yes, it's amazing that unless it's a 300 point +/- DOW day it's unremarkable. Good time for swing trading if you're into that game (I'm not). When I posted earlier, the dow had just dropped from -350 to -430 in about 10 minutes.

So, what are the signals you're looking for that we've reached bottom? I suspect we've got a ways to go, but if your timeline is long enough, there's some great buys presenting themselves IMO.


 1:36 pm on Oct 25, 2008 (gmt 0)

akmac, I don't think it's wise to try to time it to hit bottom. You may be right, but the question is, is there enough upside potential now to moving funds from fixed interest to a balanced stock fund worthwhile. Personally, I think probably so.

But, as you wisely point out, how long is your timeline? It needs to be at least two years out, five more likely. If it's shorter than that, well, you're not reading this board anyway.

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