It is going to get crushed by mid November when all the big time investors and FB employees can unload their shares. Look for sub $5 then.
I don't think you're going to see sub $5 that soon. It'll probably take another 2 years to reach that level -- probably about $7 range is where it will settle. That's what it is really worth right now. But, between then and now there are many opportunities for overly optimistic forecasts to be spun off by the PR machine to hype up and paint a rosy looking future growth picture only months later for the damage control department to say "due to market circumstances we missed expected earnings".
The big investors (current large shareholders) will not let it drop that low. They will step in and keep buying shares when the values drop too low thereby propping up the value.
I see that happening today in fact because the price has been as low as $18.75 and as high as $20.06. That has nothing to do with performance and only a bit to do with supply and demand. It's just price protection at work. It's probably going to linger around the psychological level of $20 where it now sits for the foreseeable near future, with small spikes up or down.
But all things said anything can happen and I would much rather see hal12b's version of events unfold so that this crime of the century gets it's proper exposure.
I don't think FB have done anything wrong.
It was all those idiot first investors like that Russian guy who put in millions.
And then the stock broking company that valued it and said it was a buy.
They should go for the high jump.
But anyone who bought shares without looking into their accounts and doing due diligence and seeing if they were making money was also an idiot.
And will there be a Dot Com 3 bubble ?
When will people learn ?
Did you hear the news that facebook is developing a facebook car?
The car will be powered by facebook shares, since they have figured out that this will soon be much cheaper than burning fuel.
Friday, August 31, 2012:
Nasdaq: FB $18.06 -$1.03 (-5.40%)
Market capitalization: $38.69B
So in a little over 3 months ..the price is halved :)
Well it was far too much in the first place.
It is a sad world on which we (the USA) hinge the value of stocks.
On the word of a known liar, thief and generally un-LIKE-able guy, (Mark Zuckerberg), the investing world has decided to buy and drive up the price of Facebook stock by +/-20% in one day.
What is driving the price? "Zuck" telling the world the company had an "unbelievable" turn-around in revenue from mobile ads, (seriously -- does anyone believe FB mobile ad sales shot up +30% in three months?).
Someone needs to look into who bought these ads, (my first thought is FB company insider shareholders are buying them in a ad-ponzi scheme).
If the investing community had complained that there weren't enough 3-Toed Sloths with FB accounts, I think the report would have been, "Signups and daily use by 3-Toed Sloths is up 30%"...
My advice: Take the profits and run --- the stock will nose-dive back under $20 next week.
Yes when quoting figures people need to be very specific.
If it was 30% up on the same quarter last year I would believe it. Due to the fact that there are more and more people on Facebook and there are more and more mobile devices. And the ads on mobile a year ago were probably fairly low.
|there are more and more people on Facebook |
I'm working on a website for a small chain -- they have (6) Facebook accounts. They don't want to actually go on Facebook, they want automated plugins to push their blog content onto Facebook and people to "Like" them as part of an SEO strategy...
Take away all those types of accounts, and I'll bet "active users" is 25% of what FB claims.
I have (3) FB accounts myself, (and don't use any of them).
ok... it took a little longer than my prediction on Oct 24, 2012, (regarding the 20% gain that pushed FB back over the $20 mark). But I do get (2) days off since the stock market closed for Hurricane Sandy, a few weekend days -- and maybe another one for the election, but my prediction was:
|Take the profits and run --- the stock will nose-dive back under $20 next week. |
...as of the close of trading today,
Thursday, November 8, 2012:
Nasdaq: FB $19.99 -$0.48 (-2.34%)
Market capitalization: $43.31B
...FB lost almost 4% again today, (sounds small, but that's over a billion dollars of value).
Friday, November 9, 2012:
Nasdaq: FB $19.21 -0.78 (-3.90%)
Market Cap: $41.62B
Midday price is up almost 9% and the volume is almost 2.5 times average, (141M shares trading, when average is about 53M).
It has to make me think there are a lot of stupid people who don't realize that the early investor lockup of 800M shares ends today, and employees and investors are selling off their shares -- I think people are mistaking the activity for something that's a reason to buy...
If so, there will be a lot of sorry people who buy today and see it drop back under $20 tomorrow.
Midday price, Wednesday November 14, 2012:
Nasdaq: FB $21.63 +1.77 (+8.91%)
>>>>It has to make me think there are a lot of stupid people
As I think George Carlin said, 50% of people are below average intelligence. Strong correlation there with stock ownership in facebook.
It closed up $2.50.. maybe the biggest single day gain (percentage-wise), not sure...
Wednesday November 14, 2012: (Close)
Nasdaq: FB $22.36 +2.50 (+12.59%)
Volume was massive, 230M shares traded, while average volume is in the 50M range.
A Reuters article explains
|Investors relieved by absence of insider selling |
"as investors breathed a sigh of relief that expiring trading restrictions on a huge block of shares failed to trigger an immediate wave of insider selling."
..it's ok to go back in the water -- I haven't seen a shark come by in at least 5 minutes...
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