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|Wired: Facebook's Plan to Dominate The Net, And Keep Google Out|
Wired: Facebook's Plan to Dominate The Net, And Keep Google Out [wired.com]
|Today, the Google-Facebook rivalry isn't just going strong, it has evolved into a full-blown battle over the future of the Internetóits structure, design, and utility. For the last decade or so, the Web has been defined by Google's algorithmsórigorous and efficient equations that parse practically every byte of online activity to build a dispassionate atlas of the online world. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg envisions a more personalized, humanized Web, where our network of friends, colleagues, peers, and family is our primary source of information, just as it is offline. In Zuckerberg's vision, users will query this "social graph" to find a doctor, the best camera, or someone to hireórather than tapping the cold mathematics of a Google search. It is a complete rethinking of how we navigate the online world, one that places Facebook right at the center. In other words, right where Google is now. |
There's an interesting piece on Wired that I thought you'd appreciate.
Google would love to get some of Facebook's data, and, as long as Facebook keeps Google at arms length, under those terms, perhaps, it has a chance of remaining dominant.
Where are your bets going?
|it's only useful in a pure 'play' way. I've had no use for it for work or effective use for it anyway. |
Enter.... linkedin. ;)
Same as linkedin. I used it at first and occassionally people add me but I have never really made a business connection from it.
I think people who use facebook have more time than me. My cousin seems to spend his life on there but for me I have some work to do.
haha, GrendelKhan TSU got there before me.
|Same as linkedin. I used it at first and occassionally people add me but I have never really made a business connection from it. |
As with anything web, a lot of it will always come down to luck and implementation etc.
eg: I barely used linkedin and made a few deals almost immediately. (I was pretty impressed as you can imagine with linkedin from then on). I don't like FB, but I made fb connections I wouldn't have otherwise, and of course its great for just social connections with old Highschool buds I lost track with.
Good enough for me. And good enough to build a solid biz model (if they are smart).
Again, I'm just giving contention to all the blanket google fanship and blanket Social Networks are a fad type posts.
It seems fairly given that social networking sites/industry/biz model will get MORE advanced and sophisticated with time.... not the reverse. And its just pretty bizarre to me that ppl don't believe that (or see that).
I could be wrong.. but I know which way I'd bet if had to put money down now on "SNS is a fad: yes or no".
but that's just me. :)
[edited by: GrendelKhan_TSU at 10:48 am (utc) on June 24, 2009]
I don't think FB does itself any favours by humouring the large group of "popunder-you-have-won-infected-machine" mentality advertisers.
I see an ad that starts by referring to <my spouse's name> being my spouse, there's no way I'll buy from them and I wonder whether I want to be on FB at all.
An app insists on having all my data before letting me see what somebody else has done and asked me to look at - I wonder whether I want to be on FB at all.
An app pesters me to give up my friend list so that it can spam them - I wonder whether I want to be on FB at all.
An app pesters me to give up my (irrelevant to the app) data - I wonder whether I want to be on FB at all.
FB is by far the worst aggressively capitalistic environment it is my misfortune to regularly experience today. I log in less and less frequently. Unless FB rein in their advertisers I won't be there to pay for any killer app or game that may come out. At the very worst treat me like a customer and not as a data source to be mined (otherwise I won't even be a customer). If you're good enough then people will talk about you anyway without being pestered fifty times a day to email their friends about you.
I think FB may be an education to many when they finally realise how much information on themselves they irretrievably given up to marketers.
Facebook is the new AOL, minus the dial-up revenue. :-)
|Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg envisions a more personalized, humanized Web, where our network of friends, colleagues, peers, and family is our primary source of information, just as it is offline. In Zuckerberg's vision, users will query this "social graph" to find a doctor, the best camera, or someone to hireórather than tapping the cold mathematics of a Google search |
That may be so. And how exactly is Facebook coming in there? They may be the platform where Uncle Mike tells his nephew Charlie what camera to get. But how are they going to monetize this?
I appreciate GrendelKhan TSU's points and it does certainly look like there is something there. But, really, with the changing economy regarding ad income and that it is unlikely people will pay to subscribe, right now it looks as if Facebook will evolve the same way AOL did.
Linkin has a niche that will get some paid subscribers. Status 203 offers a very good wrapup.
Facebook will have to keep rapidly improving and evolving just so as not to get left behind like myspace etc..
Personally, I think it is possible that Facebook could Dominate the Net, it would have to:
- Stop being so f** slow!
So much unused Java going on.
- Include a web search engine - deal with bing?
A little 'web search' button that puts a DHTML popup in the centre of screen would be ideal. Search engines everywhere suddenly loose a percentage of traffic.
- Add its own email service, or even better an email service that worked just like Google's wave. If you could receive messages in to Facebook's inbox by sending mail to firstname.lastname@example.org, then wow.
Dont know why I'm saying this stuff, as I'm not Facebook's greatest fan.
Wow, I can't how believe pessimistic this groups is on facebook! Personally, I'm with dudibob. Facebook won't entertain you, it allows your friends to entertain you. If you're not being entertained on fb, well...
As for it being a trend, facebook is to social networking as ebay is to online auctions (and neither social networking nor online auctions are going away anytime soon.) Ebay dominates because people want to sell their stuff where there are the most potential buyers. Ebay's competitors have failed, even those with better websites, because who in their right mind would try to sell something at auction where there were fewer bidders? Over the years, ebay has shown itself to be incompetent in many ways, but they have even fewer competitors now than before.
In the same way, social networking is all about where the people are. My 75 year old mom is on facebook. My high school buddies are on facebook. My kids are on facebook. Truthfully, I've never noticed slow page load times on facebook, I guess that is secondary to the experience I have on facebook.
Now that facebook has such great momentum, it will be hard to stop, just like ebay. Zuckerburg could screw it up, but he's got an incredible asset that is likely to succeed for a long time to come.
I'm also surprised at the lack of imagination here for potential revenue models. Many of the possibilities do have that eerie big brother feel that the Wired article describes so well, but the possibilities at least exist with facebook where they have never existed in the history of mankind. Think iPhoto facial recognition meets a databank of billions of photos, already tagged by millions of free volunteers. There's got to be some way to monetize that.
I'm just saying...
Google Wave will finally connect email, talk, picasa, profiles, maps, docs, news, etc. into one comprehensive service. Once that's done Google will be competing against both Facebook and Linkedin.
I believe they will eventually win and we will all become Google slaves sooner or later.
I think Googe Wave will be impressive but I doubt it will pass the "mom test", that is, it will be too complicated for my mom to use it, therefore it is unlikely to have mass appeal like facebook does. Social networking without mass appeal won't work.
Back to the eBay analogy: remember when Yahoo was the undisputed #1 web destination and they rolled out Yahoo Auction? It was probably a better system than eBay, and it was free for sellers, but it never took off. Google certainly has deeper pockets than Yahoo ever did, but I just don't see it scratching facebook without it being easy to use by even the technologically inept (like my mom).
Facebook: You have to create an account, login for it to be useful.
Google: Type what you're looking for, click the search button.
Win = Google
I'd pay $29/year for Facebook Premium.
Wall Tabs - create up to 10 tabs and use simple logic rules to place content. Posts by person X go to Tab Y. Posts by application Z go to Tab D. Posts by unknown applications go to Tab SPAM. etc..
Premium App Items - Sign up for Facebook Premium through Application X and get super cool bonus item Y (of course application X gets an affiliate payment from FB).
Although the above skews more heavily towards the gamers on FB. But hey the FB game developers are currently making more money than FB so they might be on to something.
well I hope non of them will rule the net, both have shown, they do evil, with Google we know, but the latest attempt from Facebook to change the terms in a VERY bad way, they also dont have only good thoughts.
I think the strategy is a good one - play up the potential, and offer a look into only one possibility of how the future might look with a more tightly integrated web. It's what Google wants to heavily integrate into it's services, so this kind of play simply raises the value of Facebook so that the final sale, whenever that arrives, is higher.
The more aggressive facebook gets about sharing the less data I give them. I must have blocked over 200 apps at this point. I only added a select few photos and leave most of the info for my profile blank. If people want to know more about me then they can click on my website link. I'm using it mostly for business contacts. I keep everything set to private there including my gender.
I was hot on facebook in late 07 and early 08.
Then it went lame, and I didn't visit but once a week for q3-q4 2008.
Then a funny thing started to happen, my generation (35+) joined facebook. Suddenly, I started to run into old high school friends I have not seen in 20+ years. Then my family - that is all over the US - and I started keeping up with their lives through facebook. I now visit FB again, 3-4 times a day and consider myself locked into a long term user there.
I wonder how many millions upon millions of people can say the same?
This aint high school MySpace we are talking about. It is not self interested professional linkedIn. I think FaceBooks real power is not in general social networking, but in much more sticky and powerful Family networking.
Of all the sites that FaceBook competes with, I think there are 2 two that should be the most concerned: Flikr and YouTube. Facebook has/is rapidly taking over the role once played by Flikr. Videos are starting to pop up on Facebook book in rapid succession. People no longer want to post personal pics/videos in public.
I don't think FB is much of a pure threat to Google in the search realm, but I do think they are a major player for attention and eye balls.
I belong to a large forum of football fans, mostly males in the 16-35 age group. there was a poll on there very recently "Would you pay $10 a year to use FB?" and it was 91-9 against on over 3000 votes.
I don't think them just going to a subscription model is workable so they're going to have to be smarter than that. It'll end up being FB Premium...more storage space, larger photo sizes allowed, e-mail account, that type of thing.
|But how are they going to monetize this? |
|changing economy regarding ad income and that it is unlikely people will pay to subscribe |
There are plenty of ways to monetize and I even posted a couple that work fine for some other similar sites. Ads and subscriptions are the most obvious, but far from the only possible ways to monetize.
And the other monetization options aren't theoretical. I'm talking similar sites that monetize successfully NOW. FB could easily benchmark them.
|I'm also surprised at the lack of imagination here for potential revenue models. ...the possibilities at least exist with facebook |
That's what I'm saying.
Why is everyone so stuck on ads and subscriptions as the only possible ways to monetize?
|where they have never existed in the history of mankind. |
Actually, as above, they have and DO exist. Again, Cyworld in Korea is a prime example.
|I don't think FB is much of a pure threat to Google in the search realm, |
That's also what I was saying...
I see FB and Google more likely to end up co-existing, just with more cross-over areas, if with equal animosity. some will always just search. some will always look for more interaction.
Youtube and Flickr are specialized, so in the least I think FB could leverage them rather than worry about them. reverse though, youtube and flickr should worry if FB eats up their market share.
From the search perspective, when it gets down to it, I think twitter is more a direct potential threat in the search area (ie: real-time search).
ie: The premise FB vs Google is misleading in the first place. They are both fruit... but apples and oranges. ^^
they will collide... but maybe to make fruit juice.
[edited by: GrendelKhan_TSU at 5:29 am (utc) on June 25, 2009]
its was an interesting read....
it will be interesting to see what apps are created for google wave, to see if it can dent the social scene.
Brett said: "but in much more sticky and powerful Family networking"
Just today I noticed that FB lets you define family relationships with other users. There's an updated basic info section. What's next, wanna know my shoe size too?
Facebook Tests Messaging, Hopes Users Publish Widely [wired.com]
Paraphrasing - facebook are changing things so that users can;
a) define groups (possibly on the fly)
b) post stuff to these groups only
So now I'll be selectively passively updating friends and family through facebook - and facebook hope I'll start updating the world as seen in twitter.
For Father's Day they kept trying to get people to invite their dads to join FB. My dad doesn't even do email. I don't think I'd want him on FB.
No social profile would be complete with:
* Link to / or discussion of maternal grandparents.
* First pet
* First school
* Favourite film/book/music etc
Hmm, sure I've seen that list somewhere else as well.
There is room for all of these products or services.
Eg if I want some information I will use Google (or Wikepedia)
If I want to keep up with my old friends I will use Facebook.
If I want to read the news I will use BBC World.
If I want to sell something I will use E-bay (or TradeMe in NZ)
If I want to buy something (I will probably use Google)
And as for everyone saying FB can't make money, at least they are making some, how much does Youtube make ?
And once you have your browser favorites or bookmarks full of good sites you can go straight to them.
Well, i resell adwords in Mexico. I have an MCC account to manage all my customers, very useful stuff. I have all info i need typing my question on google.
Today i have spend 3 hours finding a way to resell facebook as i do with my AdWords MCC account. I have search for help, cant find anything. even in facebook site. what a bad service. i will make some money for them and they don't have even a good FAQ page?
One Google Wave will rule them all. Yea, mom cant use it, but u will be a dad and your girl a mom in a couple of years.
I think Google is going for that long-term. Little by little they took docs, sites, photos, analytics, adwords, merchant center (ebay competitor), checkout (paypal competitor), rss, etc ...
They have been to smart, they even have a "google professional program" where you do exams. To be certified you need to manage more than $10K in adwords.
HU? On google i pay they for being certified, resell their product and give my clients the support they dont ! what a good business is that.
On the other hand i have facebook, i can figure out how the hell i can sell their ads service.
I ran some Adwords ads on Google and got only a couple of clicks. (cost me nothing) (after spending months studying keywords)
I ran some pic ads on Facebook and got lots of clicks (cost me too much due to high bids by fact cat corporates. (after spending a day on the ads)
So If I had the choice I would go for Facebook Advertising. AS they show pics and to the demographics I want.
Why cant the 2 things co-exist.
Social Networking is fun fro some pople.
Searching is important for other people.
So people do both, some people do neither.
Wll, ur adwords ads can send to your website more targeted visitors than facebook. U can see that comparing CTR
|I think Googe Wave will be impressive but I doubt it will pass the "mom test", that is, it will be too complicated for my mom to use it, therefore it is unlikely to have mass appeal like facebook does. Social networking without mass appeal won't work. |
No Offense to the Poster (I Agree) or Any Reader Intended, But... Google Wave is a COMPLETE JOKE! I used it for about 90 seconds, crashed it, tried to get it to work right for the next 20 minutes or so, logged off, deleted the bookmark, will not go back for a very long time if ever. (I honestly crashed it repeatedly for about 20 minutes and it didn't even tell me what I was doing to make it crash?) I had to keep asking the person who sent me the invitation how to use it and what's so much different or better about it than anything else? They kept saying 'I don't know' ... LOL.
|Then a funny thing started to happen, my generation (35+) joined facebook. Suddenly, I started to run into old high school friends I have not seen in 20+ years. Then my family - that is all over the US - and I started keeping up with their lives through facebook. I now visit FB again, 3-4 times a day and consider myself locked into a long term user there. |
Yep. I'm there and keep thinking I don't really care about it myself, but it soooo much easier to touch base with people I don't see very often anywhere else I stick around. It's the only social network I belong to and if everyone switches to something else I'm not going... I also know older family members who I've tried to show my sites to and get 'I don't really use the Internet, except FaceBook' without them even looking at what I do.
I think I read somewhere FB's at 400,000,000 active users world wide and there's no replacement right now. I'm not joining another social network. Most of the people I know who don't work online aren't involved in other social networks. The thing FaceBook has is simplicity, an 'adult theme' and the fact that to switch to another social network and have all the BS I (and everyone) actually filled out on FB I'd have to do it again... Most likely not gonna happen again.
Why would I (or most people) switch if it's not broken? It's like someone said about E-Bay... I don't care if E-Bay's not as friendly or their fees are a bit higher it's where Joe Public goes to buy so if I need to sell 'whatever' it's going on E-Bay... FaceBook's the same way 'everyone's already there' how do you take that away unless they close shop?
ADDED: I will drop FB in a minute if they start to charge for membership... It's just not that important to me. Convenient? Yes. Worth a paid membership? Nah, not that important.
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