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This 31 message thread spans 2 pages: 31 ( [1] 2 > >     
Tradedoubler sold to AOL for $900 million
Can they make it work?
Michael Anthony




msg:3219630
 10:44 am on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

[bloomberg.com...]

Watch Google get their direct to merchant CPA deal out in double quick time now!

[edited by: rogerd at 6:33 pm (utc) on Jan. 15, 2007]
[edit reason] insert working link [/edit]

 

jcoronella




msg:3220051
 6:39 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

Or buy CJ.

Heh... although they'd immediately have to ban millions of sites once they got that db in house.

night707




msg:3220067
 6:56 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

Looks like a ridiculous price. In Germany trade doubler had almost looked bancrupt some years back. I remember huge hustle to make them pay my bill. I doubt, that they did recover with the rise of adsense.

engine




msg:3220070
 6:57 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

AOL, the Internet unit of Time Warner, said on Monday it had agreed to buy Swedish online marketing firm TradeDoubler for about $900 million to enhance its advertising capabilities in Europe.

But the cash deal, which was recommended by the TradeDoubler board, ran into quick trouble as a major shareholder said it would vote against the transaction, and other investors signaled they would need a sweetener before approving it. The deal is the first major strategic move for AOL under Randy Falco, who was hired as AOL's chief executive last November from GE's NBC Universal to help turn the business around.

AOL deal for TradeDoubler won't be easy [money.cnn.com]

Michael Anthony




msg:3220097
 7:29 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

The major shareholder owns 10.01%, and they need 90% acceptance to get the deal through!

Always shows that the best negotiator is one who can afford not to do the deal and hold out for the best price.

This said, TD has been for sale for almost 2 years, so I'm surprised that they didn't sign it up there and then.

It's certainly great news for anyone with a stake in a network - it's definitely made my New Year anyway :)

"Or buy CJ.
Heh... although they'd immediately have to ban millions of sites once they got that db in house. "

That's a scary thought jc - " Google Adaffiliates" And they have all that conversion data too! Oh dear, what a mess.

I'm so glad we only do direct deals these days - I'd hate to be a TD affiliate once AOL gets their teeth into it.

[edited by: Michael_Anthony at 7:33 pm (utc) on Jan. 15, 2007]

ronin




msg:3220169
 8:39 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

I'd hate to be a TD affiliate once AOL gets their teeth into it.

Yeah, I hear you.

Is TD going to bother protecting its content publishing partners from its content publishing parent?

Or will it just sell them up the river?

panic




msg:3220295
 10:19 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

Or buy CJ.

You think that would ever happen?

TinkyWinky




msg:3220785
 9:27 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

Looks like a ridiculous price.

LOL - good old AOL does it again... that is a silly price for a system that in my experience is cumbersome, slow and hardly does you any favours as a publisher.

Well done to TD directors for getting such a great price....

night707




msg:3220803
 9:52 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

AOL had also bought free storage provider xdrive ... just wonder, for what kind of a joke price they had acquired that "business" which probably also has never made any profit.

Michael Anthony




msg:3220825
 10:30 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

This reminds me of a story/joke that I was once told...

New CEO meets predecessor, who has been the captain of a sinking ship for some time. Old CEO gives him three envelopes, and says to open one at each annual shareholder's meeting.

After 1 year and no improvement, new CEO opens envelope one and reads...

"Of course, these problems are the legacy left by (Old CEO), and next year will be better.

Year 2..

"The legacy left has been harder to change than first expected, but next year should see the changes that I have implemented start to show results"

Year 3, he opens the envelope..

"Take three enveleopes....."

Sound familiar to anyone at AOL I wonder?!

On a more serious note, if G/AOL/Y controls the search market, both paid and free, and the revenue providers, CJ/TD etc., why do they need affiliates any more.

I wonder if the AOL guy was one of those newbie posters here who asked "I have loads of traffic, how do I monetise it?" If he was, I wish we'd have all kept our mouths shut. That's another fine mess we've got ourselves into.

rencke




msg:3220916
 12:54 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

Just in case anyone here thinks he or she is making good money:

I know personally one of the original investors in TradeDoubler. He is now 35 years old. Back in 1999 he invested everything he had - $500.000 - and got 10% of their stock in return. On the day they went public in 2005, the market valued the company at $386 million. He had sold 30% of his holding to help with the IPO, but kept the rest. On that day, his personal net worth became $38,6 million in cash and stock.

AOL is now offering to buy the company for $900 million and he still has lots of shares to sell. The real tragedy is that he has no idea about consumption and doesn't know how to get about using up money.

Makes you wonder why you work so hard, doesn't it?

Michael Anthony




msg:3220925
 1:04 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

That's not a tragedy, that's intelligence. Any idiot can spend money, very few can make it and keep it.

And I still think that I'm making good money, and I still don't work much at all :)

[edited by: Michael_Anthony at 1:06 pm (utc) on Jan. 16, 2007]

Tor




msg:3220992
 2:28 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

AOL is now offering to buy the company for $900 million and he still has lots of shares to sell. The real tragedy is that he has no idea about consumption and doesn't know how to get about using up money.

I can help him Rencke :)

shorebreak




msg:3221112
 4:23 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

Having lived in Silicon Valley most of the last 15 years, I can tell you that less than 1 in 20 of the people who make it rich here actually live their post-$$$ lives in a manner than would make anyone envious of their situation. Usually the folks that make millions

a) let it go to their heads and forget that money doesn't make them smarter, more interesting, or more important
b) spend it foolishly, buying expensive houses that are actually worth a fraction of what they pay for them, and fast cars they'll never be able to drive fast enough
c) end up divorcing or breaking up with their S.O. Money (and not the lack of it) is the great breaker of relationships here

-Shorebreak

rencke




msg:3221135
 4:35 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

Tor:
I'll tell him. But don't hold your breath. My staff have offered their services as personal shopping assistants and that was a no-sell. Same with my suggestions to get rid of excess cash by taking a vacation in your hometown and to buy a stylish car such as Lamborghini, Maserati or Ferrari. He has bought himself a modest home. That's all so far. He clearly subscribes to Michael_Anthony's philosophy.

night707




msg:3221160
 4:56 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

... converting junk into cash is just one side of the Internet ... Trade Doubler seems to be another good example for this.

iblaine




msg:3221211
 5:30 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

$900M is a sweet deal for tradedoubler. CJ sold for $50M. Linkshare sold for $400M. Advertising.com sold for $500M(i think). What you're getting for $900M is a brand and relationships...

night707




msg:3221256
 6:08 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

... first one has to find someone like these AOL guys to get so much for such a smallish ad network that never took off. Is AOL still in this purchasing mood?

Michael Anthony




msg:3221274
 6:21 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

Yeah - anyone got that AOL guy's number? :)

night707




msg:3221439
 9:16 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

AOL is a very secretive company. They do not like to be contacted ... perhaps they are with Scientology :-))

mykel79




msg:3222012
 10:31 am on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

The deal hasn't yet gone through though, am I correct?

rencke




msg:3222119
 12:19 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

No, not yet. One of the main shareholders - a pension fund - increased their holding to 10,01% and say they want to see the deal sweetened. AOL countered yesterday saying that they won't pay a penny more and that 90% acceptance is not written in stone. Crystal ball: The deal will go through.

a smallish ad network that never took off

TradeDoubler is profitable and the unquestioned market leader in Europe. AOL has offered 27 times earnings. Other major recent Internet acquisitions have been closed at 30 times earnings and I guess that is what the pension fund has seen.

Michael Anthony




msg:3222130
 12:48 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

Just applied that multiple to our business - that is one sweet number!

Shak




msg:3222258
 2:58 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

I think just applying that number alone isn't the key.

Tradedoubler's hidden gem is the Media Agency all in one tracking tool, so apart from affiiates/merchants, they have something very very valuable to go with it.

Add to that a very strong management team,key clients with rock solid contracts tied in for a few years.

So personally speaking I'll stick to real world multiples for valuing our business, as currently we are a bit short on 1 or 2 of the above, but that's something being worked on.

That's my 2cents worth.

Shak

night707




msg:3222548
 6:08 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

TradeDoubler is profitable and the unquestioned market leader in Europe. AOL has offered 27 times earnings

More than 3 million earnings p.a. is a hard to believe figure. Where is that from?

Not that long ago TD had been so broke, that they had trouble to pay even a few hundred Euro. And that was before adsense did conquer the market.

Marketleader in which country?

Michael Anthony




msg:3222737
 8:53 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

In European e-commerce, TD is the market leader.

I still think that AOL have bought a pup though, and my own experience with their management tends to contradict your views Shak.

And it's not $3 million per year, it's 900/27 = 33.3 million.

And Shak, get back under that radar mate, the world was a safer place with you there :)

night707




msg:3222821
 10:04 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

33.3 million

reads more like revenues and i was assuming $3 million prof. if so.

Again, where are these figures listed or published? Still doubt that Europe leadership. Please correct me :-)

rencke




msg:3223505
 1:40 pm on Jan 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

From their 2005 annual report (converted from SEK to USD at today's rate of 7,00 sek = $1,00):

Sales $155 million
Gross operational profit $45 million
The Q3 report indicates a 54% growth for 2006.

TD is established in 16 European markets. They had 1.045 advertisers and 100.334 publishers in 2005.

mykel79




msg:3224783
 1:20 pm on Jan 19, 2007 (gmt 0)

Not that long ago TD had been so broke, that they had trouble to pay even a few hundred Euro

According to Tradedoubler's terms, they only pay out to the affiliates when the merchant has paid them. Unfortunately merchants often stall and delay paying for a couple of months. That's probably why you had trouble getting your money.

Essex_boy




msg:3226790
 3:52 pm on Jan 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

Shorebreak: Thats true, I knew a guy who came from nothing - a market trader, he came into over 3 million, he died recently of cancer he had 300 thousand left.

Sad but true

This 31 message thread spans 2 pages: 31 ( [1] 2 > >
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